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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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So nobody is talking about Quebec provincial elections.

Quebec has a very generous BEV subsidy of C$8k.

Center-Right Nationalist Avenir Quebec won 74/125 seats on Monday.

Are they going to eliminate the subsidy like the PC in Ontario?
Probably not, since they're not deranged authoritarian lawless nutcases like Doug Ford in Ontario. And if they do, they will probably do so slowly and deliberately with a phaseout, not with some sort of aggressive attack singling out Tesla like Doug Ford did.

I wish we had calm, sane right-wing politicians like that in the US. Instead, all we have is the lawless fascist types, who think that they should shove a lying, angry drunk onto the Supreme Court with the slimmest of support -- which makes no sense by any standard other than lawless fascism.

You would think Fred would do at least one article on the subject.
You would, given that he lives in Quebec.

Mod: This belongs on Market Politics thread.
 
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I just read this:
Tesla Is a Test Case for California's Push to Add Women to Boards -- Barrons.com

By Leslie P. Norton

California has just passed a law requiring publicly traded companies with more than five directors to have at least two or three female board members by 2021, citing the dominance of women in the population and in making purchasing decisions. The thinking is also that more diverse boards lead to better business decisions and financial performance because they reflect independent, nonconsensus thinking that challenges the status quo and helps avoid risks

(I can't copy a reference to the article from my trading platform.)

Here's my idea how to solve that: ask the following people to join the Tesla board:
  • @bonnie Norman
  • Candace Owens (this will secure the "activist" mentality desired so much by the California law without being unduly influenced by the politics of said legal desire)
These two people in my above list could also fulfill the SEC "independent board members" requirement in the SEC settlement with Musk & Tesla. The above two ladies would be great, and I'd caution not to deviate from my suggestions; it doesn't make sense to use Executive Headhunters or referrals from inside board members that just find more people with lots of conflicts of interest and no real committment to Tesla like they have in the past. Someone communicate this idea to Tesla's Board & Elon, please.
 
Not sure if this has been posted already but in case not. ABC news about Tesla battery
Here I go: I TOLD YOU SO. I've been saying that battery response for grids is a great way to solve a lot of the edge issues for decades.

Unfortunately, that is also a bit of cream-skimming; once the world has gotten a certain % of their grids set up with dynamic battery systems such as the one in Australia, the next big thing the batteries can do is time shift variable supplies such as sun. That requires a substantially larger amount of batteries. However, installing the grid-services load balancer type batteries is already a few percent of the time shifting batteries, so it's kind of nice to ease into the time shifting capabilities by first getting a huge amount of value out of the conditioning batteries, lowering utility costs, and giving them more money to save up to get the time shifting batteries, and giving utilities time to explain to regulators why variable load pricing for homes makes sense so that homes can be spurred into investing into more home batteries or alternatively paying higher rates in the evening so that the utility can be forced by the regulators to use those higher amounts to pay for more time shifting batteries (utility scale or even distributed throughout neighborhoods, whatever the utilities want to do).

Here's my prediction: Because this is being combated by the existing utilities, utility providers, and governments, we can expect to see these solutions being bought up regionally as each region punches through that resistence in sort of a swoop movement. You'll see it like a bunch of little earthquakes: for a long time, dry spells, and suddenly, there's an earthquake where someone decides yes, I'll get a sizable utility battery setup, and that will be followed by 2 or 3 more orders to fill in the region with sensible battery setups. That will slowly happen all over the world.
 
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I'm going to move a reply to something over from Market Action, because the people I'm talking about don't participate in the market at all (short or long).

It seems that Elon's behavior has been very polarizing of late, and the younger generation doesn't seem to be bothered by it as much as others. We are in our 40s and have found Elon's behavior of late unfortunate.
TBH, I'm not sure about that. Many - maybe even most - of the 20-somethings that I know HATE Musk. (I'm 30, for what it's worth.)

The narrative that they've bought into is massively informed by the FUD, and that's not helped by the fact that FUD sometimes has its roots in pieces of truth distorted to create a far worse narrative. This narrative may actually be more vitriolic than the shorts' narrative, tbh. (Some of the FUD doesn't work on them - for instance, his puff on Rogan's podcast is seen as neutral at worst, because these people are extremely strongly against marijuana prohibition. But a lot of it works extremely well.)

What it boils down to is... he's seen as one of the arch-techbros - basically, someone who only cares about technology and money, and perpetuates a "good ol' boys club" of craven money-grabbing at the expense of everyone else, and exclusion of women. (Which, there is a lot of that in Bay Area startup culture.) And, worse, he has a cult of personality (although much of the media is no longer part of it), which... the 20-somethings that I know have a revulsion for cults of personality (and I don't blame them).

His environmental concern is seen as a complete and total lie - the narrative on this boils down to something like this: Tesla isn't meant to improve things on Earth at all, it's instead meant to make playthings for the rich, and divert money to Musk's personal fortune, to fund the BFR so that he can ditch Earth when it becomes a smoking hellhole. (I think the Model 3 Standard Range shipping won't end the "playthings for the rich" narrative among this group, either, even as the Long Range car weakens it in the mainstream, although it'll help it - some in this group see a base $35k Model 3 as just as unrealistically expensive as a $150k Model X P100DL.)

Similarly, Boring Company and Hyperloop are simply seen as distractions from real, effective mass transit, meant to enrich Musk at everyone else's expense. (I mean, frankly, I actually agree that Boring Company and to an extent Hyperloop are distractions from real, effective mass transit. I think Musk is merely trying to solve the wrong problems, some of this due to his living in a billionaire bubble, but I don't ascribe malice to it. And, the hype behind Hyperloop may be what's needed to implement an effective long-distance high-speed rail network in the US, where there's no political will to implement publicly-funded high-speed rail, and nobody willing to set billions on fire to build privately-funded conventional high-speed rail.)

He's seen as massively abusive towards his partners (to the point that I saw a lot of sentiment expressed that Grimes was making a terrible mistake), as well as his employees. There is a massive amount of support for the labor rights movement among the 20-somethings that I know, and they've fully bought into the Reveal article. (TBH, I would not work for Musk, I don't want the kind of work-life balance that working for him would entail, and I think that that's a problem... although a fair amount of the problem is inherently the amount of work it takes to get started up and challenge incumbents in a market. But, I don't buy into the narrative that Tesla is a particularly dangerous place to work at all.)

Also, their baseline of believing that Musk is fundamentally dishonest means that a lot of these people were happy with the SEC suit against him, seeing it as the SEC finally doing their job against a fraud. There's a lack of understanding of details of how things work in the financial markets, though - I think many thought that the reason for the SEC lawsuit was that the "funding secured" tweet was a pump-and-dump scheme against longs, which we here all know isn't the case. (Basically, these people aren't shorts or longs, there's disgust against the stock market in general among these people, as it's seen as part of the mechanism of wealth transfer from the poor and the middle class to the rich.)

So, yeah, assuming that younger people aren't subject to the FUD is... dangerous, IMO.
 
If you care about Tesla-the-enterprise-on-a-mission, I enjoin you to take three minutes and listen to Mr. Hyperchange.
Then maybe put in seven more.

Hats off, except for the bit of vulgarity, proffered in desperation no doubt. Noone reacts positively to that.

I'd written more, but deleted it: the vid is on message, and focus matters.
 
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He's seen as massively abusive towards his partners (to the point that I saw a lot of sentiment expressed that Grimes was making a terrible mistake),
Justine, Talulah, and Amber do not describe him as abusive. (Workaholic, and no good as a spouse... yes. But they still *like him*.) I can see why 20-somethings might not see that distinction if they hadn't looked into it, though.

There is a massive amount of support for the labor rights movement among the 20-somethings that I know, and they've fully bought into the Reveal article.
Did you point out that the "Reveal" article flat-out lied, claiming that there wasn't yellow caution tape when there was? I'm mildly suprised that that particular piece of disinformation was effective since it was so blatantly, provably false.

That said, the rest of the reasons that many 20-somethings are suspicious of Musk... actually make sense.

(Basically, these people aren't shorts or longs, there's disgust against the stock market in general among these people, as it's seen as part of the mechanism of wealth transfer from the poor and the middle class to the rich.)
Well, it is. But largely due to the tax system. It wouldn't transfer wealth towards the rich if capital gains taxes were at the same level as regular taxes. But I have had no luck at getting people to understand that, because most working people don't even realize that capital gains taxes are way way lower than regular taxes. Which is because most people never read the tax booklets or look up the tax rate schedules.

So, yeah, assuming that younger people aren't subject to the FUD is... dangerous, IMO.
Indeed.
 
I disagree with Gali, I do not want Elon to keep silent when he sees wrongdoing. I also don't think his video is saying anything Elon hasn't already heard from some people much closer to him. I'd say it's a bit delusional to think it will be seen or have any effect, except of course to give the bears more ammunition to use against Tesla.

I think people are misunderstanding Gali's message. He's asking Elon to not tweet so that someone doesn't misconstrue it and use it as evidence to convince the SEC to remove him as TSLA's CEO.

"Funding Secured" is the perfect evidence of this. Most of TMC was convinced that Elon did have funding secured, and that the SEC lawsuit was based on a very specific interpretation of it. That mis-application of the law took away (or in the process of it) Elon's chairman seat.

The next mis-interpretted tweet could be used by the SEC to take away his CEO position (as the lawsuit originally intended). That's the self-inflicted ammunition that Gali is referring to. And that's a REAL RISK for TSLA investors.

Edit: It's like the opening scene of "The incredibles". The superheros were only trying do good, but because of the general population's selfishness and shortsightedness, the superhero's actions weren't viewed that way. That's the risk with his tweets - that his mundane actions get twisted in the public light. Much like every other celebrity, Elon is being hounded by the paparazzi and would be better served by hiding from the limelight instead of courting it.

Edit 2: The right thing to do, is for us to force a change in the attitudes of the general public, but most of are "too busy" to do that. Not to mention that it won't win congressional support, since it'll be seen as restricting the "freedom of the press".
 
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While Tesla and Elon Musk are dealing with their battles...well, every person on the planet is finding out about them. Results are results.

Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 8.44.35 AM.png
 
I disagree with Gali, I do not want Elon to keep silent when he sees wrongdoing. I also don't think his video is saying anything Elon hasn't already heard from some people much closer to him. I'd say it's a bit delusional to think it will be seen or have any effect, except of course to give the bears more ammunition to use against Tesla.
Maybe some nuance is in order re tweets.
* the insult tweets (pedo guy, shortsellers enrichment) are immature and of no benefit
* the tweets of clear and legitimate push back to short sellers, SEC, etc, are valid imo
 
It's amazing how much self-reflection is required to invest in Tesla nowadays...

Regarding the SEC case, it is weak and would readily be demonstrated as such if one of two things happened.

1) The funding was shown to have been secured. A simple statement by the Saudis, an interview response, etc. could demonstrate it definitively. This can be negotiated between Musk and the Saudis.

2) TSLA goes over $420 in the next three or four years as the court case proceeds.

I can't say that Musk is doing the right thing by disparaging the SEC and possibly backing out of the settlement, but I can't say otherwise either. It could be rational. This whole SEC thing is ripe for reversal.
 
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It's amazing how much self-reflection is required to invest in Tesla nowadays...

Regarding the SEC case, it is weak and would readily be demonstrated as such if one of two things happened.

1) The funding was shown to have been secured. A simple statement by the Saudis, an interview response, etc. could demonstrate it definitively. This can be negotiated between Musk and the Saudis.

2) TSLA goes over $420 in the next three or four years as the court case proceeds.

I can't say that Musk is doing the right thing by disparaging the SEC and possibly backing out of the settlement, but I can't say otherwise either. It could be rational. This whole SEC thing is ripe for reversal.

Be that as it may, it strikes many as immature and unnecessary. This doesn’t advance their mission.
Best way to *sugar* everyone up is to execute and deliver to the P&L.
 
Be that as it may, it strikes many as immature and unnecessary. This doesn’t advance their mission.
Best way to *sugar* everyone up is to execute and deliver to the P&L.

I'm not sure about that. This is the last of three Musk tweets that come to mind as gasp-worthy. The first was the one where he accused Air Force contract personnel of corruption. The second was the one where he accused the NTSB of being publicity hounds and being anti-safety. So far, those two tweets were very successful.

Musk's sense about these things hasn't been bad in the past. Imagine if tomorrow the Saudis said that they were the ones securing the funding and that $420 sounded like a reasonable price. Would the SEC then think twice about bringing charges in the future?
 
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