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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Oh, please, dispense with the patronizing crap. I looked over the document, but do not feel like investing the time to do a close reading. If you or anyone else have a clue as to how it addresses the risk of dilution, you could easily state it and stop with this posturing.

The only thing that seems to suggest a counterbalance to dilution is that Musk already owns a 22% stake in Tesla and would naturally not want to dilute that. The new stock grants, however, are 1% of shares outstanding. So this is a concrete provision that allows Musk to be compensated immune from dilution. The plan could easily have been written based on a fixed number of shares rather than a fixed ratio of shares. So this is a very deliberate choice not to bind Musk to concern about dilution, beyond his pre-existing 22% stake.

It's 1% of shares outstanding on Jan 19 at $350.02. See page 8. So a fixed number of shares.
 
One thing that is starting to bother me about Elon's new compensation plan is that there is no real check against dilution. Market cap, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA all can be boosted by issuing more stock. Growth by acquisition can easily supply added earnings.

I am not saying that this is how I expect Musk will grow Tesla, but it is simply a weakness of the incentive plan could work against shareholder interest. Things would be materially different had the $650B market cap goal been formulated as a share price, perhaps $3250/share = $650B ÷ 200 share. Such a goal would create a disincentive to excessive dilution and better align Musk's compensation with actual shareholder value which always denominated in shares, not market cap.

From the Filing (regarding growth by acquisition): Page 13

“Market Capitalization and Operational Milestone Adjustments. In the event that Tesla acquires a business with a purchase price of more than $1 billion, any then-unachieved Market Capitalization Milestones will be increased by the purchase price of such acquisition. Similarly, if the target of an acquisition transaction has revenue or adjusted EBITDA (based on cumulative four consecutive quarters prior to the transaction) of more than $500 million and $100 million, respectively, the then-unachieved Revenue or Adjusted EBITDA Milestones (as applicable) will be increased by such Target’s revenue or adjusted EBITDA (as applicable). This feature of the CEO Performance Award is intended to prevent achievement of milestones based on acquisition activity that could be considered material to the achievement of those milestones.”
 
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Tesla in talks with Chile's SQM over lithium investment


"Santiago-based Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) is one of the world’s lowest-cost producers of lithium. This month, the company resolved a long-running dispute with Corfo, which will allow the miner to quadruple lithium production by 2026."

SQM is affiliated with right wing parties in Chile and was prevented from expanding operations by a center-left government, supposedly on environmental grounds. But other lithium mining companies were not prevented from expanding.

Now, with a Chilean center-right government elected recently it seems full speed ahead for SQM. But what happens in four years if the center-left comes back to power?

I can already see articles in the Guardian talking about how Tesla and Elon Musk are in bed with Pinochet loving Chilean Fascist.
 
It's 1% of shares outstanding on Jan 19 at $350.02. See page 8. So a fixed number of shares.

It is not shares he gets, but stock options, the right to buy these shares in the future at current price fixed at $350,— each.

So if he reaches the marcap milestones using dilution instead of higher share price, he gains much less.

In the exteme example that he dilutes so much that the shareprice is still 350 when mapcap reaches 100B, he has earned nothing.
(Well, nothing other than the right to buy shares at the same 350 shareprice at that moment, but we all have that right :) )

When increasing market cap by increasing share price, he earns on the value of the stock options as well as on the value increase of his current 30M shares.
 
Volkswagen Apologizes for Testing of Diesel Fumes on Monkeys

Pretty incredible. Unfortunately I think the economics and performance of EVs will be what is necessary to greatly change worldwide public perception moreso than health risks, environmental concerns, and examples like this. The good news is ICE soon has no chance as determined by physics. I’m not much of a social warrior but this made me upset to read.

Its even worse... today a report came out that they tested Nx fumes even at humans.

Stickstoffdioxid-Experiment: Autoforscher sollen auch an Menschen Abgase getestet haben - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Wirtschaft
 
If that last line in the article is true, Wozniak must feel very bitter about Tesla. Not a objective point of view anymore, unfortunately from a person who gets a lot of press airtime.

Unfortunately this has been his main motivation over the last decade or so. As a long time AAPL long, I have been hearing him comment occasionally and it's almost always wrong. He is a great genius when it comes to building Computers with technology of the 70s and 80s, but hasn't kept up and mostly seems to be complaining about things and seeming bitter. It could be that he knows this will create a lot more press coverage, or he really is like that. Basically all businesses he has been involved with since Apple have failed.
 
Talking about safety look at this:

The frunk is almost split in 2 parts but the driver cabin looks like not touched. Thats amazing.

All the energy of the impact seems to have been absorbed by the frunk....
No indication of why/how this happened and what speeds were involved. If the impact was <30mph into that pole then I would expect no cabin damage. More amazing is 65mph into the back of a stationary fire truck and the occupants are unhurt. .
 
It is not shares he gets, but stock options, the right to buy these shares in the future at current price fixed at $350,— each.

So if he reaches the marcap milestones using dilution instead of higher share price, he gains much less.

In the exteme example that he dilutes so much that the shareprice is still 350 when mapcap reaches 100B, he has earned nothing.
(Well, nothing other than the right to buy shares at the same 350 shareprice at that moment, but we all have that right :) )

When increasing market cap by increasing share price, he earns on the value of the stock options as well as on the value increase of his current 30M shares.

We are in agreement. And your post mirrors my understandung of the set up. Good catch that @jhm could also be confusing shares (full market value) vs options (differential market value from Jan 19).

My post
It's 1% of shares outstanding on Jan 19 at $350.02. See page 8. So a fixed number of shares.
was specifically to correct the statement:

The plan could easily have been written based on a fixed number of shares rather than a fixed ratio of shares.

Probably should have pared the quote down vs the full reply to the post (which was later moved to another thread) since I only addressed one part.
 
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First monkey, now also humans. The German car industry is working hard on PR desasters.

VW under fire for diesel tests on monkeys, humans

(didn't read the article, it's just about the headlines anyway)
Locking 10 monkeys in an airtight room while hooked up to the exhaust of a VW TDI Beetle. I am already fed up with VW after going through the TDI debacle with them. If this is true, I hope it costs them dearly.
 
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