General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

Tesla Model 3: Market Survey Suggests Possible Surge in Sales | Inverse

(Gene)Munster’s firm, Loup Ventures, “surveyed 519 people in the U.S. regarding interest in buying a Tesla Model 3… [and] found a surprisingly high number (17 percent) of people would buy a Model 3 at $40,000. Even if this survey is off by [a factor of three], the results still imply significant market share gains are in store for Tesla given their current U.S. unit market share is below 0.5 percent.”

Even though any first-time survey has its limitations, Munster acknowledges that the insights are “still valuable” for future projections. He predicts, “Longer-term (10 years from now) we believe Tesla can capture 17 percent of the U.S. auto market share, consistent with our survey results…

 

[30seconds]

Tesla Model 3: Market Survey Suggests Possible Surge in Sales | Inverse

(Gene)Munster’s firm, Loup Ventures, “surveyed 519 people in the U.S. regarding interest in buying a Tesla Model 3… [and] found a surprisingly high number (17 percent) of people would buy a Model 3 at $40,000. Even if this survey is off by [a factor of three], the results still imply significant market share gains are in store for Tesla given their current U.S. unit market share is below 0.5 percent.”

Even though any first-time survey has its limitations, Munster acknowledges that the insights are “still valuable” for future projections. He predicts, “Longer-term (10 years from now) we believe Tesla can capture 17 percent of the U.S. auto market share, consistent with our survey results…

This is why being able to make them at high volume is such a big deal.

Of course for now I’m just waiting to see if they can make them at moderate volume

 

[mongo]

This is why being able to make them at high volume is such a big deal.

Of course for now I’m just waiting to see if they can make them at moderate volume

No worries, this factory goes to 11.

 

[EinSV]

Tesla Model 3: Market Survey Suggests Possible Surge in Sales | Inverse

(Gene)Munster’s firm, Loup Ventures, “surveyed 519 people in the U.S. regarding interest in buying a Tesla Model 3… [and] found a surprisingly high number (17 percent) of people would buy a Model 3 at $40,000. Even if this survey is off by [a factor of three], the results still imply significant market share gains are in store for Tesla given their current U.S. unit market share is below 0.5 percent.”

Even though any first-time survey has its limitations, Munster acknowledges that the insights are “still valuable” for future projections. He predicts, “Longer-term (10 years from now) we believe Tesla can capture 17 percent of the U.S. auto market share, consistent with our survey results…

This survey has somehow flown under the radar so far but it really should not have.

The 17% number is staggering — especially considering that 2/3 of vehicles sold in the US last year were Pickups and SUVs, and that another 22% of survey respondents said they would “maybe” buy a Model 3.

If you add the “yes” and “maybe” votes together that is a higher percentage than purchasers of all cars (versus SUVs/Pickups) of ALL brands in 2017.

Tesla has captured the imagination and interest of a much broader swath of the car-buying public than I would have expected at this stage.

Gene Munster has a very low-key way of presenting information but long-term investors really should really pay attention to this IMO.

 

[bambam4171]

I actually talk about the NOX emissions and don't omit them .... but just for Germany. Here the cars at that class (6) are compliant as far as you can trust dependent and independent organizations.

Not sure about Switzerland and the US in respect of compliance.

Sorry, was wrong. Thought Euro 6 could be banned as well.

 

[bambam4171]

I respectfully disagree regarding pack thermal limit. Consider that the 3 can supercharge at 117+ kW (157 HP) for long time periods, discharge ability will be even higher. It also appears to have much larger radiator/ condenser for cooling. Finally, consider pack thermal mass vs effective series resistance.
Motors generate heat in the stator which is easier to cool vs the rotor in the S/X. Also has oil cooling loop for the motor.

Yes but please consider that a P version likely will double the max draw. Also the 2170 Cell design is less effective when it comes to heat dissipation. Lets agree to disagree until one of us is proven wrong

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yes but please consider that a P version likely will double the max draw. Also the 2170 Cell design is less effective when it comes to heat dissipation. Lets agree to disagree until one of us is proven wrong

The battery pack doesn't matter much when it comes to heat. It's the motors that are the issue in the Model S/X, specifically the rotors.

Remember that when the Model 3 gets AWD, you also get a second motor, which means you both double power *and* the motor heat dissipation capacity. I think everything points to power limiting due to heat being mostly irrelevant for the Model 3. The exception would have to be if adding the P would replace the rear motor with a three phase induction motor like the ones found in the Model S/X. It can't be ruled out.

 

[bambam4171]

The battery pack doesn't matter much when it comes to heat. It's the motors that are the issue in the Model S/X, specifically the rotors.

Very interesting, where did you get this information? I was trying to find out what the limiting factor was with the S/X for some time but only found pointers to maybe battery/maybe inverter. No one had motor cooling on their list so far.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Very interesting, where did you get this information? I was trying to find out what the limiting factor was with the S/X for some time but only found pointers to maybe battery/maybe inverter. No one had motor cooling on their list so far.

It's quite well known that induction motors are good for high power in short bursts, but aren't so great for sustained high power output. Tesla even says so in one of their earlier motor patents. And if you look at for instance my own X100D, it's registered with an official max power of 79 kW. (This is the number for sustained power over one hour, where you test the motor in a test bench according to EU requirements.)

Also, the heat limiting comes on too fast for it to be the battery. Like 90 seconds in on a Nordschleife run. You haven't heated the 500-600 kg battery pack from 20C to 60C in 90 seconds. You could of course think the temperature issue would be internal in the cells, but the 18650 are tiny cells, and the difference between the external temperature and the internal temperature will be small.

Also, when you look at what the car is reporting heat-wise, it's the stator temperature sensor that's the issue. (There's no sensor on the rotor.)

To sum up, there's an abundance of data pointing towards the motors. Now, that's not to say the battery couldn't be an issue on the Model 3. Bottlenecks are like whack-a-mole. You sort one out and another one pops up.

 

[bambam4171]

How do you get that I'm saying anyone raising tariffs is good from my posts?

 

[mongo]

Yes but please consider that a P version likely will double the max draw. Also the 2170 Cell design is less effective when it comes to heat dissipation. Lets agree to disagree until one of us is proven wrong

Why do you think the 2170 is less effective at heat dissipation? The extra diameter of the 2170 allows (not sure if they do this) the higher power/energy number in fewer/larger layers, increasing cooling of the core via the shell. It also has a 26% higher circular area to height ratio which should improve heat extraction via the can bottom. (36% larger area and 8% taller).

Ultimately, I think an AWD P will not typically be limited for thermal reasons. Rather, peak power will be limited by wiring/ contactor/ connector performance or purely SW/ design decisions. (electronics being overbuild for longevity, battery being underutilized for same reason).

 

[mongo]

Very interesting, where did you get this information? I was trying to find out what the limiting factor was with the S/X for some time but only found pointers to maybe battery/maybe inverter. No one had motor cooling on their list so far.

For more background, check out standard types of AC induction motors and their cooling systems. They are classed differently due to operating mode and environment. Open frame air cooled continuous duty are smaller than the open frame inverter duty (variable speed) version because the continuous duty can rely on the fan section operating at full speed to cool the rotor while the motor is running. Inverter duty types have to resize cooling due to lower speed operation making fans less effective.

Tesla's AC induction motors on S/X are not open frame, but do integrate cooling of the rotor to pull the heat out. They also operate at high current levels (torque) when racing which increases rotor heating effects.

 

[Reciprocity]

How do you get that I'm saying anyone raising tariffs is good from my posts?

You insinuate that raising tariffs on the US is no problem because the US is no longer that important, so they must be good. I mean they have tariffs on the US now and the US is in decline apparently so they just be good for Europe and China. If only Obama would come back and roll over for every tariffs and every TPP that comes along. At some point, we can be a third world country.

I think we should all agree that no tariffs are good and all tariffs should be removed. But so should all dumping practices and artificially devaluing of your currency. All of these things are bad long term but they are worst for the US who mostly plays fair. How do you address these issues with some type of tool to incentivise good behavior? I would have preferred Trump went country to country and made deals that would be beneficial to all parties or painful only for the bad operators. My guess is that the tariffs are the opening salvo to that action by setting the table. You can't go into a negotiating without leverage and if no one believes you will impose tariffs, no one will negotiate. They will laugh at you.

Only time will tell.

 

[scaesare]

Yes but please consider that a P version likely will double the max draw. Also the 2170 Cell design is less effective when it comes to heat dissipation. Lets agree to disagree until one of us is proven wrong

What do you base your estimates of double power usage on?

The P variants of the model S don't draw twice the power of the non-P flavors...

 

[bambam4171]

Why do you think the 2170 is less effective at heat dissipation? The extra diameter of the 2170 allows (not sure if they do this) the higher power/energy number in fewer/larger layers, increasing cooling of the core via the shell. It also has a 26% higher circular area to height ratio which should improve heat extraction via the can bottom. (36% larger area and 8% taller).

Ultimately, I think an AWD P will not typically be limited for thermal reasons. Rather, peak power will be limited by wiring/ contactor/ connector performance or purely SW/ design decisions. (electronics being overbuild for longevity, battery being underutilized for same reason).

Trying to find the source that said that 18650 are easier to cool because they are thinner but did not find what I thought I read before so maybe I'm just plain wrong

 

[bambam4171]

What do you base your estimates of double power usage on?

The P variants of the model S don't draw twice the power of the non-P flavors...

Yes, but the Model 3 motor is 192kw Model S non P is already double of that

 

[mongo]

Trying to find the source that said that 18650 are easier to cool because they are thinner but did not find what I thought I read before so maybe I'm just plain wrong

That is a valid possibility (referring to thinness) . If they fully pack out the can (with same layer thickness), there will be more layers from center to edge which could reduce radial cooling.

 

[bambam4171]

You insinuate that raising tariffs on the US is no problem because the US is no longer that important, so they must be good.

Ok, so you defintively misunderstood me. I'm not saying that any tariffs are good. What I'm saying is that before "America first" this would have been more of a thread to the partners. Now everybody knows its not about working together in fairness but "My interests are most important".

By the way: Can someone please educate me on the unfair conditions other countries have imposed on the US? Just asking.

 

[TheDoktor]

Tesla Model 3: Market Survey Suggests Possible Surge in Sales | Inverse

(Gene)Munster’s firm, Loup Ventures, “surveyed 519 people in the U.S. regarding interest in buying a Tesla Model 3… [and] found a surprisingly high number (17 percent) of people would buy a Model 3 at $40,000. Even if this survey is off by [a factor of three], the results still imply significant market share gains are in store for Tesla given their current U.S. unit market share is below 0.5 percent.”

Even though any first-time survey has its limitations, Munster acknowledges that the insights are “still valuable” for future projections. He predicts, “Longer-term (10 years from now) we believe Tesla can capture 17 percent of the U.S. auto market share, consistent with our survey results…

Oh, you need to review some basic material about stated vs. revealed preferences.

 

[Gerasimental]

Interesting Model 3 product info: the stock powertrain works quite well at the track: Model 3 Track Day: Laguna Seca

Model 3 was able to complete 9 consecutive laps at full power. The Model S, in comparison, automatically goes into a reduced power mode under sustained throttle use that one would typically see in track use.

Model 3’s overall performance and handling appears to be superb, based on the driver’s feedback and the video posted. The only problem encountered was that the OEM brake pads were expended by lap 4, but this is to be expected. Brake pads for everyday street use are far less durable than brake pads for racing.

I don’t know why the Model 3 is able to do this when the Model S cannot. Perhaps the 3’s coolant system is better, or maybe the PM motor does not generate as much heat.

At any rate, Tesla has proved that their product can match or beat ICE capability in yet another application.

Close! While it's true that the PM motor is probably slightly more efficient, the main reason is more likely that the losses, and therefore heating, in a PM motor occur almost entirely in the stator, which is quite easy to cool using an exterior water jacket. In an induction motor, you get significant I2R losses in the squirrel cage, meaning the rotor gets hot, and this is much more difficult to cool.