General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

His school, his schedule. (Elon started Ad Astra ("To the stars" ) in 2014)

No sleeping bag at Fremont is a double plus good sign.

Or maybe Elon heard insider info that the pay package vote has failed based on early voting, and is already heading out the door

kidding. Just want to demonstrate how wildly different the same simple facts can be interpreted by different people on the internet.

 

[Waiting4M3]

More of everything is always better. Especially lidars.. If you can duct tape 12 of those bad boys to something, it can become completely self aware by itself.

But seriously, I would imagine that they dont need a ton of invites for non-owners vs owners. Being that owners already have a car and are looking more for a higher end model 3 to that is more equivalent to what they have, only new. Also, there are a lot more non-owners in the pool compared to owners. So I would imagine with all the invites they have sent, even ones they send months ago to owners are generating enough orders for 1000/w+. I always want to see more, because then it means they are getting more aggressive about wanting to generate more orders.

I would actually love it if Tesla told us:

"We sent invites to 10000 people in late Feb and received 7000 orders, exceeding our expectations. We won't send new invites until early April. Apologies to those customers with Mar-May window and haven't been invited. We produced as many as we promised, but just received way more orders than what we expected."

This will kick that "Tesla fans not buying M3 when invited" FUD right in the balls.

 

[mongo]

Or maybe Elon heard insider info that the pay package vote has failed based on early voting, and is already heading out the door

kidding. Just want to demonstrate how wildly different the same simple facts can be interpreted by different people on the internet.

Nah, he flew across the ocean so everyone who didn't read the full compensation package would know that he will not be at the meeting tomorrow. Nice guy to go through all that trouble.

Market wise, I have more powder coming, hopefully it goes better than today's purchase.

 

[Zaxxon]

Or maybe Elon heard insider info that the pay package vote has failed based on early voting, and is already heading out the door

kidding. Just want to demonstrate how wildly different the same simple facts can be interpreted by different people on the internet.

I heard that production of the Model 3 is going so well that they're planning to start deliveries in Israel next week. Musk is just prepping for that.

 

[Richgoogol]

Do you guys think Tesla would set the record straight if they can currently produce 2,500/week? Or they would just let the rumor mill go on until the delivery number announcement date? I’m just thinking if they are already on target, why wouldn’t they set the record straight?

 

[mongo]

Do you guys think Tesla would set the record straight if they can currently produce 2,500/week? Or they would just let the rumor mill go on until the delivery number announcement date? I’m just thinking if they are already on target, why wouldn’t they set the record straight?

They don't care about the mill, and will continue their normal information release schedule.
The less they say, the better (for them that is not us). No incentive for them to speak early.
For example, they say they are at 2,500. Then something happens, then they have to say they are not at 2,500.
May also be Elon making a big rain cloud...

 

[SPadival]

Within the next year Tesla has over a billion dollars of debt maturing:
-$230 million of SolarCity's 2.75% convertible notes due in November, 2018
-$920 million of Tesla's 0.25% convertible notes due in March, 2019

Do you foresee Tesla meeting these obligations by issuing new debt or new shares?

New debt. Also, hopefully cash flow from Model 3 ramp, Solar roof & power wall/pack ramp and Tesla truck/roadster deposits.

Waiting for some of these ramps is like waiting for Godot

Also, Bjorn uses AP2 to navigate a roundabout LOL .. 10 mins into this video

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

The concern I have with relying on invitation size, is that we don't really know the invitation size, or % of invited people that configured. Tesla could be holding off on more invitations because too many people configured in the last 2/28 batch. All we can rely on is the invited people putting their info into the Model 3 Invites google sheet, and telling us if they configured or not. But at that point, why not just use the VIN assignment in that same sheet, which is one step closer to production than configuration, and two steps closer than invitation?

I think VIN assignment is super useful too. I view it as a confirmation of previously made assumptions around production rates. I'm just more interested (right now) in forward looking production levels, which is why I'm keen on seeing the next batch of invites.

You're right about not knowing the actual invitation size and take rate but I think comparing invitation size to prior invitation batches is a good proxy. Also, I don't expect the take rate to fluctuate materially. The notable exception to that is the transition from previous owner invites to new owner invites. But Tesla has all of our configuration preferences, so I'd be shocked if they were way off in their estimates.

 

[Todd Burch]

It’s not how big your invites are, it’s how you use them.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think VIN assignment is super useful too. I view it as a confirmation of previously made assumptions around production rates. I'm just more interested (right now) in forward looking production levels, which is why I'm keen on seeing the next batch of invites.

You're right about not knowing the actual invitation size and take rate but I think comparing invitation size to prior invitation batches is a good proxy. Also, I don't expect the take rate to fluctuate materially. The notable exception to that is the transition from previous owner invites to new owner invites. But Tesla has all of our configuration preferences, so I'd be shocked if they were way off in their estimates.

Another reason I think the size of late Feb invitation may be unusually large is becauseTesla is trying to stuff the buyer pipeline full for end of quarter push. Normally, Tesla can probably send a smaller batch of invites in late Feb, then send another batch of invites a few weeks later in March. If any cars didn't find a buyer in the Feb invites, they can just match them up with a buyer from the March invites. The car would sit there for a few days while Tesla juggles the matching. We saw some chaotic VIN assignment action in the last few months suggesting this. But for end of March quarterly push, maybe Tesla wanted to make sure they deliver every car as soon as possible without this juggling and waiting, so they sent out a much larger batch invites in late Feb just to stuff the buyer pipeline beyond full.

Edit: especially considering 4-5 weeks is just enough to deliver to the east coast, I think Tesla wanted to make sure every car they put on a truck going east already has someone paid for it and waiting delivery before 3/31

 

[AlMc]

Throw me a rope already. I'm drowning in your guys' sea of optimism....

Actually, it has nothing to do with being optomistic. Just in the past you can really tell nothing about how Tesla/TSLA will do based on EM's moods. He is probably an excellent poker player. Has no 'tells'

 

[The Blue Owl]

@familial-rhino.21976 I'm sorry for your loss

I am actually very sad about that (even though I didn't know him that well).

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I would actually love it if Tesla told us:

"We sent invites to 10000 people in late Feb and received 7000 orders, exceeding our expectations. We won't send new invites until early April. Apologies to those customers with Mar-May window and haven't been invited. We produced as many as we promised, but just received way more orders than what we expected."

This will kick that "Tesla fans not buying M3 when invited" FUD right in the balls.

The “FUD” and bears and shorts, or whatever you want to call the other side, made 40% with a somewhat market neutral long NASDAQ and short TSLA in the last three quarters... I don’t know if they’re the ones Elon kicked in the balls.

 

[JRP3]

Cross posting this from the resource thread since it's potential bear ammunition:

The automotive industry is waking up too late to the fact that China will hold most of the world’s supply of cobalt, a key metal for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, Glencore Chief Executive Ivan Glasenberg said on Tuesday.

“If cobalt falls into the hands of the Chinese, yeah you won’t see EVs being produced in Europe etc. They are waking up too late ... I think it’s because the car industry has never had a supply chain problem before,” Glasenberg told the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.

Glasenberg said he was nevertheless prepared to sell cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo to China if the price was good. He added that the company was not changing its production plans in the DRC.

Chinese control of cobalt supply is risk for car industry: Glencore

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Do you guys think Tesla would set the record straight if they can currently produce 2,500/week? Or they would just let the rumor mill go on until the delivery number announcement date? I’m just thinking if they are already on target, why wouldn’t they set the record straight?

They’re not on target; if they were, we would be seeing 2x the activity. We’ll be lucky if Tesla makes it to 1,500+ sustainable by end of March, but most likely, we’ll get another burst rate crap and will have to sit on our hands for another three months, while Elon takes selfies at historic sites, and while y’all watch the stock price every second and vote for his comp package.

 

[EinSV]

Fun fact from Model 3 spreadsheet:

VINs assigned December 4-February 28 (~three months)=320*. Average monthly rate=110
VINs assigned March 1-March 20 (at time of post)=216. Monthly rate=335+
​

So assuming the spreadsheet data is representative, at the current pace in March we are on track to have triple the rate of VINs assigned compared to the past three months' average. Also, triple the rate in February (109 VINs in a short month), and almost 2 and 1/2 times the rate in January (141 VINs).

Together with the increased VIN registration rate with NHTSA and decreased time from registration of a new VIN range to VINs being reported in that range (down from 4-5 weeks to about 2 weeks), this seems to support a significant step up in production after the Feb. 20-24 shutdown.

The one lagging indicator are deliveries, which do not yet reflect a dramatic increase. I think this is likely explained by delivery lag times to the East Coast and that we are about to have a large volume of West Coast deliveries, but we'll have to see.

*Previous three months
December 70 VINs assigned
January 141 VINs assigned
February 109 VINs assigned

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Fun fact from Model 3 spreadsheet:

VINs assigned December 4-February 28 (~three months)=320. Average monthly rate=110*
VINs assigned March 1-March 20 (at time of post)=216 -- Monthly rate=335+
​

So assuming the spreadsheet data is representative, at the current pace in March we are on track to have triple the rate of VINs assigned compared to the past three months average. Also, triple the rate in February (109 VINs in a short month), and almost 2 and 1/2 times the rate in January (141 VINs).

Together with the increased VIN registration rate and decreased time from registration of a new VIN range to VINs being reported in that range (down from 4-5 weeks to about 2 weeks), this seems to support a significant step up in production after the Feb. 20-24 shutdown.

The one lagging indicator are deliveries, which do not yet reflect a dramatic increase. I think this is likely explained by delivery lag times to the East Coast and that we are about to have a large volume of West Coast deliveries, but we'll have to see.

*Previous three months
December 70 VINs assigned
January 141 VINs assigned
February 109 VINs assigned

It’s nice to have a level-headed person nearby, as I’m about to join the @Ulmo realm.

 

[Reciprocity]

I would actually love it if Tesla told us:

"We sent invites to 10000 people in late Feb and received 7000 orders, exceeding our expectations. We won't send new invites until early April. Apologies to those customers with Mar-May window and haven't been invited. We produced as many as we promised, but just received way more orders than what we expected."

This will kick that "Tesla fans not buying M3 when invited" FUD right in the balls.

I agree, but that is but Tesla's modis operandi. Nothing I liked more then kicking fud right in family jewels.

 

[TheDoktor]

The “FUD” and bears and shorts, or whatever you want to call the other side, made 40% with a somewhat market neutral long NASDAQ and short TSLA in the last three quarters... I don’t know if they’re the ones Elon kicked in the balls.

Would be nice to see you being this candid on SA and Twitter

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Would be nice to see you being this candid on SA and Twitter

I feel more comfortable among friends. Everybody here knows I’m pissed about the delays, but also that I’m a long-term bull. On SA and Twitter, I have to watch every freaking letter I type or it gets deliberately misconstrued.