Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Poor Matt...you know they were shut down Apr 1, right? you know, Easter. Wouldn’t be helpful to include that in the count...
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To be fair, nothing that has happened thus far is really arcane, nor needing conspiratorial explanations.
For TSLA specifically there has been a trickle of consistently bad news for the last few weeks. No need to repeat all of that. Insider knowledge not required to conclude that TSLA was being oversold, or not.
For the overall tech market we have the US President attacking AMZN directly, a flood of negative trade announcements, announcement of an end to Chinese student visas, and direct attacks on renewable energy and auto emission standards.
These are more than sufficient for large scale panic-selling and subsequent programmed trading sales.
Sure, none of us can know if that rout is really over, nor can we be positive that TSLA problems are all behind us.
FWIW, I have been long TSLA for years and I have continued to buy regardless of current price. I do not really try too hard to buy on dips, although the last few days have been irresistible for me so I have bought more. Overall I find my returns to be optimal if I carefully evaluate fundamental company prospects and follow my outlook, largely not acting on any short term events.
I have rarely though that insider actions were influential in any was that was not publicly discernible. "rarely" does NOT mean never. I do not see those secretive patterns for TSLA, apart from the perpetual statements of the professional cynics.
Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow
The goal was still 5K/week end of Q2. 3 mths = end of Q2. 2.5/wk was an intermediate step
Which is heavier 1 Tonne of Cotton or 1 Tonne of Iron. If you know answer to this, you will also know answer to 3 mths and end of Q2.
Were they off on Easter? There were reports that they were working on Easter, and Elon's leaked emails seemed to indicate that, too.
All I'm pointing out is that the press release is dated April 3, and it clearly starts off that paragraph with "the past 7 days." Throw in Elon's email, and I think they're including April 1 and 2 here.
It's also "about 3 months," not "by the end of Q2." That's a much softer commitment that he will get pressed on during the earnings call.
I'm sticking with my 2% prediction. The bears will feel emboldened by the declining S/X and what we now believe to be a horrible cash position.
That’s the kind of in depth analysis we’re all here for
Ok... The issue is that the "bear story" includes numbers that look awfully similar to this.
The next chapter of the bear story is media posting headlines like "Tesla posts biggest quarterly loss ever" and "Tesla loses over 1 Billion in a quarter" when their Q1 earnings come out in early May.
One way that the bear story could have been defeated is by continued Model S/X growth, which would have (presumably) generated more operating profits and padded Tesla's cash position.
Stock is back down to only a 1% jump. Like I said, I don't think we're learning much from this report.
Tesla has a plan, doesnt care about the Bearish headlines
"about 3 month" and "end of quarter 2" are two materially different statements. one is a hard timeline, the other on e is soft. tesla doesnt even keep its hard deadlines, take a guess what will happen with the soft one..
sundaymorning
Active Member
The no capital or equity raise coupled with positive cash flow in Q3 comment stood out for me the most. We can breath a lot easier in Q2, once the macros stablilizes Tesla will shoot up. For now it’s back to letting Tesla do it’s thing while we wait for more good news on M3. A few ViNs in the 15,000s were reported yesterday.
Tesla emptied the pipeline in December. Some refilling of that is to be expected.
Next quarter will make up for it. Probably around 26k S/X deliveries and around 20k Model 3 deliveries.
It's certainly not great. Had we not seen a huge drop over the past weeks, I think this would have caused one. But from where we're at now, I think it's fine.
The important takeaways for me are that no cash/equity raise is expected to be required this year and that despite continued delays and thousands of Model 3 deliveries, net reservation queue is not falling.
Also, on the S/X YoY drop: certainly it would have been better had they risen, but the drop was miniscule (couple hundred units between S and X) and Tesla addressed it in the letter: order book for S/X was up. Therefore the unit drop was simply due to production fun. Maybe from borrowing folks from S/X line to 3 line?
I am also happy to see Musk possibly learning to provide more realistic guesstimates. Rather than telling us a 3-day extrapolation that turns out to be unhelpful (1k, when they then went on to average 750 for Q1), we get 2k for a whole week, with another 2k expected the following week. And the slightly softer 5k target of 'about 3 months.'
So, in short: not a great report, but a totally ok one for this long.
I found this on Twitter (courtesy of Horace Dediu),
and I thought was interesting to have it here as a memento (aka "Musk is always late 20 weeks").
Long as ever, but time-adjusted.
and I thought was interesting to have it here as a memento (aka "Musk is always late 20 weeks").
Long as ever, but time-adjusted.
Sales down, nothing to gloat about
Did you happen to see GM's and FCAU's sales report?
sundaymorning
Active Member
We’re slaowly creeping back up when tech stocks aren’t doing as well. This is the first time in awhile that this is happening. I think the artificial selling on the short side cannot sustain and we will end the day in the green. I think we’ll have a strong week to reclaim $270 as buyers start to wake up and digest the “no capital” raise needed and “positive cash flow for Q3” comment. We have the captain of the ship at the factory, so 2,500/ week will eventually be breached in 2-3 weeks.
Also, it should be noted that the Bloomberg tracker, which has not yet been updated for this letter, is spot-on. It says 11,855 through 3/31, and Tesla's numbers are: 8,180 + 1,542 + 220 + 2,040 in transit = 11,982. That puts Bloomberg within 1% of actual.
That could be luck as we know their model has issues. But food for thought as Q2 progresses.
That could be luck as we know their model has issues. But food for thought as Q2 progresses.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
This is getting OT: Gas price is approaching $4 here in California, I imagine forward looking investors of GM (and other traditional automakers) should probably keep an eye on that, more so than past sales reports.
Many of the bear stories can never be defeated, because they're all spin. Have you read the postings from everyone? No one claimed that Q1 was going to profitable. And estimates of $750M - $1B Q1 loss are indeed the biggest loss yet, but why should it matter any differently now in the forums or when it's reported in the news cycle? All the news cycle does is create buying opportunities.
More importantly though:
- does the Q1 loss stop the production ramp?
- does the Q1 loss require a cap raise? (Tesla's report answered this, but much like the 2014 fundraising, they'll take capital if its offered on good terms just to expand faster)
- What does a Q1 loss mean to Tesla's SMP2 (Secret Master Plan 2)? - hint, no impact at all.
Therein lies the flaw with the bear thesis. Failure to meet time-based milestones is completely irrelevant. The biggest argument that might be valid is that the capital market freezes up, like during the great recession. That and a few other black swan events. So you're welcome to bet on that potentiality, or cover while you're ahead.
Likely a seasonal spike, as refineries shift from winter to summer blends of gas, just like most years.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
You might want to keep an eye on this then. Not saying it will happen or the alliance will be effective or sincere, but higher gas prices is always a real threat when a few countries like the Saudis and (especially) Russians control it.
Russia says looking at joint organization for cooperation with OPEC
Edit: sorry for taking this OT guys, just want to pretend to turn this into a GM forum and troll the GM supporters and see how it feels
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