General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RubberToe]

"Consequently, we now expect to reach a module production rate of 5,000 car sets per week even before we install the new automated line designed and built by Tesla in Germany."

Yes, seems like they backed off on the automation front and are doing more manually. They will need to increase automation, and they stated this, to achieve the targeted gross margins going forward.

The next 6 months are all about increasing Model 3 production profitably.

RT

 

[MattEnth]

Short perspective on the Q1 letter:

• Not a single mention of the Semi, Roadster, Model Y, or Full Self Driving in the Q1 letter. Are these projects on hold?
• 2018 CapEx forecast lowered, as expected. This, combined with 24/7 production, are both strong evidence of Tesla's cash crunch.
• 2.35B of CapEx left planned in 2018.
• They're down to 1.7B in cash minus customer deposits.
• Working capital now -2.2B.
• Total debt now at 10.5B. Wow.
• Did they remove free cash flow from their condensed statement?

It sure looks like they need to come up with over 4B to cover current liabilities and committed CapEx.

 

[ls7corvete]

"Consequently, we now expect to reach a module production rate of 5,000 car sets per week even before we install the new automated line designed and built by Tesla in Germany."

Yes, seems like they backed off on the automation front and are doing more manually. They will need to increase automation, and they stated this, to achieve the targeted gross margins going forward.

The next 6 months are all about increasing Model 3 production profitably.

RT

I suspect once they hit 5k modules/wk they put the German line on the back burner.

 

[30seconds]

Short perspective on the Q1 letter:

• Not a single mention of the Semi, Roadster, Model Y, or Full Self Driving in the Q1 letter. Are these projects on hold?
• 2018 CapEx forecast lowered, as expected. This, combined with 24/7 production, are both strong evidence of Tesla's cash crunch.
• 2.35B of CapEx left planned in 2018.
• They're down to 1.7B in cash minus customer deposits.
• Working capital now -2.2B.
• Total debt now at 10.5B. Wow.
• Did they remove free cash flow from their condensed statement?

It sure looks like they need to come up with over 4B to cover current liabilities and committed CapEx.

are you upping your short position?

 

[MattEnth]

are you upping your short position?

No but might rebalance into some riskier/lower strike options.

On the call, Elon just said they're doing an organizational restructure this month? And they're at 3000 "peak hour" production?

Long way from 5k/week in 2 months. And with no info on the Semi / Model Y / Roadster / Full Self Driving in the opening comments, I can't see how Tesla justifies its current valuation.

 

[Darren12]

Looking at the Model 3 market share graph in the letter, Model 3 looks to have about 26% share in April 2018. Mercedes C Class is just barely above them, maybe about 28% market share. From Mercedes website, they sold 5,148 C Class in April. Going off that, Model 3 sales in April appear to be about 4,780 (5,148*.26/.28). That would be at least 900 more than InsideEVs reported...

Link: Mercedes-Benz USA April 2018 Sales Chart

 

[Reciprocity]

Short perspective on the Q1 letter:

• Not a single mention of the Semi, Roadster, Model Y, or Full Self Driving in the Q1 letter. Are these projects on hold?
• 2018 CapEx forecast lowered, as expected. This, combined with 24/7 production, are both strong evidence of Tesla's cash crunch.
• 2.35B of CapEx left planned in 2018.
• They're down to 1.7B in cash minus customer deposits.
• Working capital now -2.2B.
• Total debt now at 10.5B. Wow.
• Did they remove free cash flow from their condensed statement?

It sure looks like they need to come up with over 4B to cover current liabilities and committed CapEx.

1) Reservations went up 140,000,000. That is equivalent to 140,000 Model 3s or.. more realistically, 14,000 semis.
2) I know you keep saying capex is going up but it will only go up if they expand into building the Y earlier then expected. Capex is down 300M+ and will be down Q2 another 300M or more.
3) LoL Ok. Cash went down basically the exact same as Capex. Q2, Capex is going down and cash coming in is going up. China alone might add another $100M to reservations when tariffs drop. Maybe even more.
4) Shrug
5) Shrug
6) Learn to add and subtract and do some simple accounting.

 

[theschnell]

Short perspective on the Q1 letter:

• Not a single mention of the Semi, Roadster, Model Y, or Full Self Driving in the Q1 letter. Are these projects on hold?
• 2018 CapEx forecast lowered, as expected. This, combined with 24/7 production, are both strong evidence of Tesla's cash crunch.
• 2.35B of CapEx left planned in 2018.
• They're down to 1.7B in cash minus customer deposits.
• Working capital now -2.2B.
• Total debt now at 10.5B. Wow.
• Did they remove free cash flow from their condensed statement?

It sure looks like they need to come up with over 4B to cover current liabilities and committed CapEx.

Current liabilities includes the $1 billion customer deposits and $500 million deferred revenue. Pull those out and working capital is only negative $700 million. Not ideal but paints a different picture than the 2.2 billion you list.

There is still a possibility that they don’t need cap raise if deposits hold / increase and M3 volume and margins improve.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

How should we interpret the total liabilities dropping by $1.5billion, while cash only dropped by $700million?

 

[Skryll]

This call is a ****ing meltdown. Get out while you can, This game is over. Dont say you were not warned, your CEO is basically screaming at you that hes done

Your name was supposed to be justkidding, but....

 

[Bebop]

This call is a ****ing meltdown. Get out while you can, This game is over. Dont say you were not warned, your CEO is basically screaming at you that hes done

The call is amazing. what are you talking about?

Elon calling out people for stupid questions and milking the one guy because he is asking good questions. Funny stuff.

Also calling out Nikola for suing Tesla.

 

[laalan]

Stock down 6% afterhours.. Will be interesting to see the action tomorrow

 

[Krugerrand]

The call is amazing. what are you talking about?

Elon calling out people for stupid questions and milking the one guy because he is asking good questions. Funny stuff.

Also calling out Nikola for suing Tesla.

I agree. Best ER...EVER!! They are laying out the path to a $T market cap. Today’s number are meaningless. 3 is ramping, Elon wants no cap raise, and this is where we are going. What more could you ask for?!

 

[kelevra]

did this happen ever before that elon did not answer questions? really loved the letter but this concerns me a bit

 

[Cartegena]

I agree. Best ER...EVER!! They are laying out the path to a $T market cap. Today’s number are meaningless. 3 is ramping, Elon wants no cap raise, and this is where we are going. What more could you ask for?!

Best underhanded, softball reliever ever.

 

[anon]

did this happen ever before that elon did not answer questions? really loved the letter but this concerns me a bit

Concerns me too - not really in terms of the company's future, but more in that the headlines will probably be negative about his behaviour tomorrow!

 

[Starno]

Gigafactories will incorporate entire vehicle production

 

[Waiting4M3]

Current liabilities includes the $1 billion customer deposits and $500 million deferred revenue. Pull those out and working capital is only negative $700 million. Not ideal but paints a different picture than the 2.2 billion you list.

There is still a possibility that they don’t need cap raise if deposits hold / increase and M3 volume and margins improve.

If I heard correctly there was a question early in the call asking Elon if he doesn't need to raise or doesn't want to raise, and he said in no uncertain terms that he doesn't want to to raise.

 

[Waiting4M3]

did this happen ever before that elon did not answer questions? really loved the letter but this concerns me a bit

Maybe he's really serious about not wanting to raise any more capital, and finally feel free to give the middle finger to all the bean counters asking boring questions

 

[Krugerrand]

Concerns me too - not really in terms of the company's future, but more in that the headlines will probably be negative about his behaviour tomorrow!

You expected something else for tomorrow? Please. He could wipe their bums for them and there’d be negative headlines about how the toilet paper wasn’t soft enough.