General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SteveG3]

Elon is squarely calling out media behavior and says he is going to create a website to respond (personally, really hope he means it, at least means encouraging someone to run with the idea similar to his approach to getting hyperloop realized),

"Going to create a site where the public can rate the core truth of any article & track the credibility score over time of each journalist, editor & publication. Thinking of calling it Pravda …"

about a dozen tweets on this already, too many to post.

this was a gem in response to someone working in the media predictably labeling these tweets as Trumpian,

"Thought you’d say that. Anytime anyone criticizes the media, the media shrieks “You’re just like Trump!” Why do you think he got elected in the first place? Because no ones believes you any more. You lost your credibility a long time ago."

my two cents, for years the majority of the media has already been hitting Elon like a pinata, saying you cannot trust what Elon/Tesla says, spinning nearly everything negatively, and saying Elon's unhinged and needs to grow up. yes, they will say all that even more now, but, all of those things are already ratcheted up so highly, seems worth it to call it out... if Elon turns it into half the people thinking Tesla/Elon are full of #$%, and half think media is full of #$%, probably better than current circumstances. if a website like this is really launched in a way that cannot be gamed, Tesla will benefit far more, so, many things might really benefit a great deal.

 

[skitown]

Reality, ggr and I are dead serious. I can put this in technical microeconomics terms. Gasoline and diesel cars are an inferior good.

Given the choice between a gas car and an electric car of the same price, essentially everyone will choose the electric. The only reason to buy a gas car is inability to afford an electric car. Now, needs like "minivan" or "pickup" do override this so someone may buy a gas pickup rather than an electric sedan, but once someone has tried an EV, they will never pick a gas sedan over an EV sedan unless price is an issue or the gas car is available now and the EV not available for months in the future.

Look at the market understanding that. Every EV sold wipes out a gas car sale. Only once all the gas car sales (of the price of Model 3 or above) are wiped out, only then do EVs compete with each other.

Put simply, I laugh at the name "Tesla Killers". "Tesla Joiners" is what they are. Innovator's dilemma anyone?

 

[SteveG3]

now this poll... have at it everyone : )

"Create a media credibility rating site (that also flags propaganda botnets)

89%Yes, this would be good
11%No, media are awesome"

Twitter

Elon's pretty sharp

 

[neroden]

Worth noting is that Tesla is not the only EV maker with waiting lists. Try to get an Ioniq Electric outside Korea... Battery shortage. Try to get a Bolt in Canada... Year long wait time. This is supporting evidence for my thesis.

 

[SunCatcher]

Put simply, I laugh at the name "Tesla Killers". "Tesla Joiners" is what they are. Innovator's dilemma anyone?

"Tesla Wannabees" I think would also fit. Except; they don't really wannabee, they just want to posture. Talk about foot dragging. The legacy automakers are going into EV production kicking and screaming like a 2 year old monkey with his hand stuck in the cookie jar; wanting to pull out the new EV cookies, but unwilling to let go of the old ICE cookies... What to do? Their ICE heritage is a burden and a disadvantage to them. A rope around their necks, with a heavy weight attached. Plain and simple.

 

[TradingInvest]

Elon is squarely calling out media behavior and says he is going to create a website to respond (personally, really hope he means it, at least means encouraging someone to run with the idea similar to his approach to getting hyperloop realized),

"Going to create a site where the public can rate the core truth of any article & track the credibility score over time of each journalist, editor & publication. Thinking of calling it Pravda …"

about a dozen tweets on this already, too many to post.

this was a gem in response to someone working in the media predictably labeling these tweets as Trumpian,

"Thought you’d say that. Anytime anyone criticizes the media, the media shrieks “You’re just like Trump!” Why do you think he got elected in the first place? Because no ones believes you any more. You lost your credibility a long time ago."

my two cents, for years the majority of the media has already hitting Elon like a pinata, saying you cannot trust what Elon/Tesla says, spinning nearly everything negatively, and saying Elon's unhinged and needs to grow up. yes, they will say all that even more now, but, all of those things are already ratcheted up so highly, seems worth it to call it out... if Elon turns it into half the people thinking Tesla/Elon are full of #$%, and half think media is full of #$%, probably better than current circumstances.

I'm so glad Elon is finally working on the website. This probably will turn out to be the beginning of the end of fake news/propaganda industry. This is a HUGE industry, and it hurts the society more than tobacco. Now they will lose the shady income.

 

[schonelucht]

Elon should focus on his cars. Especially in a week that it was the media that caught a critical issue with braking that his own Q&A didn’t catch in 9 months of production. A little bit of humble pie would go a longer way than entitled whining on Twitter by the guy with one of the loudest megaphones on earth (and beyond)

 

[Reality]

man Elon pumps Electrek as legit but complains about consumer reports


definitely think that site will be legit,


it's amazing what a whiny bitch he is. People who worship this guy are super sad.

 

[Reality]

Elon should focus on his cars. Especially in a week that it was the media that caught a critical issue with braking that his own Q&A didn’t catch in 9 months of production. A little bit of humble pie would go a longer way than entitled whining on Twitter by the guy with one of the loudest megaphones on earth (and beyond)

yes this

this forum is amazing to me, i can't stop wanting to read it

 

[Reality]

Reality, if you have enough experience, you should be able to tell that neroden's comment is intelligent, instead of laughing at it. Tesla's Model 3 is so much better than ICE cars, people will skip ICEs and go for the Model 3. Everyone who test drove my car went to reserve their own. Tesla is facing a HUGE demand. More and more people will be able to test drive and switch. China alone sold almost 30 million vehicles last year, most of them were ICEs.

Do ICE carmakers understand that EVs will eliminate the demand for ICE cars? absolutely, as soon as they test the Model 3, they totally get it. But they can't say it, and they don't have a good solution. VW just got rid off their CEO because he didn't have a viable plan to move forward. Elon said even he doesn't know what to do if he is running a legacy carmaker. Ford basically stoped ICE sedans, GM will likely to stop too.

If Porsche actually produces a good EV, their customers will stop buying the gas version. Suddenly they will have no profit, only huge losses.

Pretty soon all car makers will stop producing ICE sedans. When Tesla's Model Y comes to the market, all of them will stop producing ICE SUVs. All of this will happen within 4 years.

I get all of that, EV's will replace ICE, I agree. EV's are better than ICE (this is a longer convo, but for simplicity....) I agree,


but to say the mission E doesnt compete against the Model S, like there is no one who is going to say "id rather the well made porsche than the Tesla" is nothing short of delusional.

If you still think that Tesla is production limited and just chooses not to sell anymore X and S because......well i dont know what your reason could be, well delusional is an understatement. Probably the same group that thinks they dont discount either.

 

[Remus]

Reality, ggr and I are dead serious. I can put this in technical microeconomics terms. Gasoline and diesel cars are an inferior good.

Given the choice between a gas car and an electric car of the same price, essentially everyone will choose the electric. The only reason to buy a gas car is inability to afford an electric car. Now, needs like "minivan" or "pickup" do override this so someone may buy a gas pickup rather than an electric sedan, but once someone has tried an EV, they will never pick a gas sedan over an EV sedan unless price is an issue or the gas car is available now and the EV not available for months in the future.

Look at the market understanding that. Every EV sold wipes out a gas car sale. Only once all the gas car sales (of the price of Model 3 or above) are wiped out, only then do EVs compete with each other.

Your analytical mistake is fundamental. You think there is an "EV space". You said so. You are wrong. There is a "sedan space", and within it everyone who knows EVs exist, can afford one, and can afford to wait for one gets an EV. Those who cannot afford it settle, unhappily, for an inferior ICE car. Like buying McDonald's because they can't afford to go to real restaurants.

Your posts are always my favorite but I think here you might have painted a rosy picture here for EVs. There are people living in apartments or condos that don't have charging infrastructure. There are impatient folks who drives 5-6 hours straight at 80mph. Remember that lady astronaut who drove 19 hours straight with diapers on

 

[EVMeister]

Your posts are always my favorite but I think here you might have painted a rosy picture here for EVs. There are people living in apartments or condos that don't have charging infrastructure. There are impatient folks who drives 5-6 hours straight at 80mph. Remember that lady astronaut who drove 19 hours straight with diapers on

Sorry to copy a post of mine from another thread, but it's important in this context. I wouldn't call it a rosy picture, I'd call it fairly realistic.

I own an EV and don't have a charger at home. If you can charge at work or when out in town, it doesn't necessitate home charging. The number of people who come up to ask me questions about the car and how it all works is quite something. They are always interested and pleasantly surprised by what I tell them about my experiences and often agree they should switch to EV. If it were as stunning as a Tesla, the passing interest would be even greater. There is a lot of ignorance surrounding EV ownership and generally speaking, the more people learn the more they feel compelled to own one.

I do actually own a property that would support a home charger, but where I live and work there are plenty of places to juice up (in many cases, for free). I certainly don't think home charging is a necessity, it's just a luxury. I agree that EVs won't be for everyone, but that's because some people are stubborn and closed-minded. Completely unwilling to accept change, even when it's for the better. I truly believe they are in a minority, however.

 

[SteveG3]

Elon should focus on his cars. Especially in a week that it was the media that caught a critical issue with braking that his own Q&A didn’t catch in 9 months of production. A little bit of humble pie would go a longer way than entitled whining on Twitter by the guy with one of the loudest megaphones on earth (and beyond)

Incentivizing the media to pursue journalism would greatly benefit Tesla’s mission, and nearly every other worthwhile pursuit.

 

[Navin]

I love this man.

 

[Zaxxon]

Your posts are always my favorite but I think here you might have painted a rosy picture here for EVs. There are people living in apartments or condos that don't have charging infrastructure. There are impatient folks who drives 5-6 hours straight at 80mph. Remember that lady astronaut who drove 19 hours straight with diapers on

Yes, and these are outliers or 'next five years' problems similar to 'hey, I like those newfangled gasoline cars but there are horse hitches everywhere. Only a few gas stations in my metro area, though.'

 

[DaveT]

I'm not happy with Elon blaming the media regarding negative Tesla coverage. I think it's largely Tesla's responsibility to step up and take control of their own narrative.

More thoughts here,
Articles/megaposts by DaveT

 

[RangerRick]

now this poll... have at it everyone : )

"Create a media credibility rating site (that also flags propaganda botnets)

89%Yes, this would be good
11%No, media are awesome"

Twitter

Elon's pretty sharp

Of course, we already have something similar (Snopes) but all it took was enough people labeling it untrustworthy and you're back where you started. People are going to confirm their own biases, regardless.

 

[sweter]

Trivia: "Pravda" in many slavic languages (Polish, Russian, Czech, etc) means "Truth".

Daring.

 

[Causalien]

Yes, and these are outliers or 'next five years' problems similar to 'hey, I like those newfangled gasoline cars but there are horse hitches everywhere. Only a few gas stations in my metro area, though.'

I have been asking this questions for a long time. That Model 3 adoption will be somewhat limited by the charging infrastructure for condo dwellers. It is a pain in the ass to get the condo board to approve charging. Also, for places outside of EV friendly countries, the charging infrastructure is not really advancing that fast.

I asked around about people who bought the model 3 in my city. Most of them are young professionals who live in apartment and condos and cannot afford a townhouse or a detached.

I am currently mulling over the parking issue and do not think I can have charging installed at the place I park. Sadly, street parking at a charger in my city means that my car will have 100% chance of being broken into within a year.

 

[SteveG3]

Of course, we already have something similar (Snopes) but all it took was enough people labeling it untrustworthy and you're back where you started. People are going to confirm their own biases, regardless.

mechanisms need to be put in place to avert that. I have considerable confidence it can be done. I put a lot of time into this a few years back when I realized the extent of misinformation after following Tesla for a couple of years. I do see mechanisms that would allow for at least some of the media to become incentivized to provide content that apppeals to relatively open minded people to create. There would still exist those with polarized views, and their echo chambers, including media catering to them, but there would arise a powerful constituency that’s been waiting for more journalism. They already exist, they just have little influence in how the media behaves. This can change. Of course, embedded in all this is my sense, that there is such a thing as open mindedness, and a considerable proportion of people who try to some extent to pursue it.