General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Ovulation]

How do you know Munro is more respected. Do you know who did the disassembly?

As for the second bit: They just write that they bought the Tesla from Tesla Employees and that those employees sold it for 100-130k, not what you state.

This guy is obviously a FUDster who spins and misstate things how it pleases him/her.

 

[schonelucht]

Unfortunately I have a feeling the perception is turning against Autopilot outside those who have direct experience with it. This cartoon is syndicated by a major Dutch newspaper read by many who'd be prime buyers of Tesla (basically older, progressive and professionally succesfull). For those who can't understand the text it says something like :

Fokke&Sukke (character names) are buying a Tesla...

Will this one

also auto-fill-in insurance papers.

Obviously that's just my perception based on reporting in the media that I tend to read and friends&family I talk to. How is autopilot perception in other markets?

NOTE : I am not interested in your personal opinion on autopilot, nor in the merits of that perception for the purpose of this question. I am just looking at what the public at large is thinking in your market.

 

[avoigt]

The article does not state that the Model 3 will be profitable because it can be sold for 100-130k on the grey market. You are distorting what was written. The article stated the car that was disassembled was from an employee bought on the grey market where prices range from 100-130k.

I would think the group that did the tear down knows their costing well. They referenced the battery content and appear to do this as a paid for service so my guess is they are as credible as Munro, if not more.

Agree.

The German Engineering team got the job with 2 objectives:

1. Cost calculation for the Model 3
2. Finding Answers for unclear technical solutions

I find this more credible that the results from Munro as this has been done specifically to understand the cost breakdown. Clearly a move from the German Automakers to understand how Tesla is doing it and how strong of a competition they will be in terms of costs.

Also we can assume they signed an NDA. Wirtschaftwoche still managed to get to the information. So no surprise that we don't find a name of the company. The Media is highly recognized in Germany so I believe they made sure the information is to their knowledge valid and correct.

 

[avoigt]

Can you amplify this please? or repost link to article please. I'm very interested in the batteries, as probably are others. I've been following Co mines in Australia Thackaringa area, that seems to be a reduction of 65% in Co! And how fine granular are the cathodes and anodes crystalline structures if thats there please

Here is the link:

Tesla Model 3 kann mit Gewinn gebaut werden
Tesla Model 3: Zerlegung eines Rivalen

 

[scaesare]

Munro, a far more respected name in the automobile sector, came to the result that the parts of the model 3 alone are around 38.000$. Thats a huge ass difference, one of them is extremely wrong, and i doubt that its Munro, but rather the unknown company...

Second, the article says that they can now reap a huge proft because the model 3 can be sold for 100-130k $ on the "grey market". Thats absolute bull, you can buy one on ebay immediately for 50-54k, most model 3s offered on ebay dont even get a bid. Makes you question the quality of the article.

However, one's estimate more-or-less lines up with Tesla's publicly stated expected gross margin... and it ain't Munroe's.

I suspect the German estimate isn't far off.

 

[justvisiting]

The article does not state that the Model 3 will be profitable because it can be sold for 100-130k on the grey market. You are distorting what was written. The article stated the car that was disassembled was from an employee bought on the grey market where prices range from 100-130k.

I would think the group that did the tear down knows their costing well. They referenced the battery content and appear to do this as a paid for service so my guess is they are as credible as Munro, if not more.

i did not, in any way, say that.

the statement about profit and 100-130k on the grey market was only about this very specific model 3, nothing about model 3 in general. And seeing dozens of model 3s on ebay for an immediate buy price of 50-54k proves that this statement is complete bull and indicates a glaring lack of knowledge/research by the author, which potentially undermines the credibility of the whole article.

 

[kbM3]

However, one's estimate more-or-less lines up with Tesla's publicly stated expected gross margin... and it ain't Munroe's.

I suspect the German estimate isn't far off.

If I understood it correctly they are stating that the gross margin would be > 20% even on a $35k Model 3?

If so, that would be unbelievable.

 

[elasalle]

Observation. Look how MrMarket treating Dara CEO of Uber who wants to IPO 2019, and EM CEO of TSLA who doesn't want to raise capital....

 

[Ovulation]

i did not, in any way, say that.

the statement about profit and 100-130k on the grey market was only about this very specific model 3, nothing about model 3 in general. And seeing dozens of model 3s on ebay for an immediate buy price of 50-54k proves that this statement is complete bull and indicates a glaring lack of knowledge/research by the author, which potentially undermines the credibility of the whole article.

What the high price (and form who they bought it) says you is when they bought the car, hint early and you know that.

 

[scaesare]

If I understood it correctly they are stating that the gross margin would be > 20% even on a $35k Model 3?

If so, that would be unbelievable.

I haven't done the math, but the car they tore down had to be a $43K+ LR, right? (dunno what options the car had) That means $15K margin = 35%?

Assuming the materials cost drops form $18K to $14K for the smaller battery, that's $11K margin = 31%?

That seems off and I have to run to a mtg....

 

[neroden]

If I understood it correctly they are stating that the gross margin would be > 20% even on a $35k Model 3?

If so, that would be unbelievable.

For the sake of argument: why? Tesla engineered Model 3 to cost $35000 and to have a gross margin of 25%. Those were their actual stated engineering goals. How surprising is it that they are in the ballpark of their actual goal? Every engineering decision would have been made to achieve those goals.

 

[Krugerrand]

Unfortunately I have a feeling the perception is turning against Autopilot outside those who have direct experience with it. This cartoon is syndicated by a major Dutch newspaper read by many who'd be prime buyers of Tesla (basically older, progressive and professionally succesfull). For those who can't understand the text it says something like :



Obviously that's just my perception based on reporting in the media that I tend to read and friends&family I talk to. How is autopilot perception in other markets?

NOTE : I am not interested in your personal opinion on autopilot, nor in the merits of that perception for the purpose of this question. I am just looking at what the public at large is thinking in your market.

Your demographic of who the prime buyers are for Teslas is grossly inaccurate. The car appeals to young, old, tech savvy, environmentally conscience, car/performance enthusiasts, penny pinchers, extravagant spenders etc., etc...

In terms of AP, those who are scared of it or have some warped preconceived or brainwashed idea about it don’t have to use it or even buy the option. Problem solved. Non-issue.

 

[Remus]

For the sake of argument: why? Tesla engineered Model 3 to cost $35000 and to have a gross margin of 25%. Those were their actual stated engineering goals. How surprising is it that they are in the ballpark of their actual goal? Every engineering decision would have been made to achieve those goals.

Let me guess, because this contradicts a long standing bear thesis that Tesla can never be profitable with Model 3 and Elon Musk is full of it?

 

[kbM3]

For the sake of argument: why? Tesla engineered Model 3 to cost $35000 and to have a gross margin of 25%. Those were their actual stated engineering goals. How surprising is it that they are in the ballpark of their actual goal? Every engineering decision would have been made to achieve those goals.

I didn’t run numbers, but my intuition was that base Model was GM would be < 15% and the 25% average would be pulled up strongly by EAP and other very high margin options.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Unfortunately I have a feeling the perception is turning against Autopilot outside those who have direct experience with it. This cartoon is syndicated by a major Dutch newspaper read by many who'd be prime buyers of Tesla (basically older, progressive and professionally succesfull). For those who can't understand the text it says something like :



Obviously that's just my perception based on reporting in the media that I tend to read and friends&family I talk to. How is autopilot perception in other markets?

NOTE : I am not interested in your personal opinion on autopilot, nor in the merits of that perception for the purpose of this question. I am just looking at what the public at large is thinking in your market.

It reminds me of the media FUD at the early stage of Roadster, where Musk was concerned that potential buyers were turning away because of the bad reputation that the media was putting out there. But once the cars got out, people will see it's not true. This also happened to some degree with concerns over build quality over MS and MX, but cars themselves are the best proof against the FUD. Once Tesla starts releasing quarterly safety numbers, this too, shall pass, IMO.

 

[JRP3]

Non-issue.

Perception is an issue.

Laguna Police Sgt. Jim Cota explained the collision happened at 20652 Laguna Canyon Road and said “Thankfully there was not an officer at the time in the police car.”

However, “the police car is totalled,” Cota added. The driver sustained minor injuries. “Why do these vehicles keep doing that?” Cota further said pointing out another collision that occurred in the area about a year ago, when a Tesla ran into a semi-truck. “We’re just lucky that people aren’t getting injured.”

Tesla Autopilot: Model S That Hit 5 Cars Started Itself, Owner Says
Note that autopilot was actually not involved in the linked article.

 

[Waiting4M3]

However, one's estimate more-or-less lines up with Tesla's publicly stated expected gross margin... and it ain't Munroe's.

I suspect the German estimate isn't far off.

I actually find Monro's cost more inline with my 2018 Q4 margin model

ASP $55k
material $40k (take Monro's $38k + $2k for AWD)
factory/equipment depreciation $2k
labor $2k

This gives a gross margin of 20%. The $4k combined depreciation+labor, at 7k/wk production rate, equals about $250m/Q overhead.

If the material is $10k cheaper, that would make the GM 38%, at 7k/wk, that's almost $900m/Q. This seems much farther from what Tesla has guided.

 

[MP3Mike]

For the sake of argument: why? Tesla engineered Model 3 to cost $35000 and to have a gross margin of 25%. Those were their actual stated engineering goals.

Was that stated goal a 25% GM on the $35k version, or was that 25% based on the ASP?

 

[bambam4171]

In terms of AP, those who are scared of it or have some warped preconceived or brainwashed idea about it don’t have to use it or even buy the option. Problem solved. Non-issue.

Why is it so important for you that Tesla does not take this risk seriously?

Many have stated that this issue of general perception will create a big issue for Tesla, you seem to be the only one saying that is should be ignored. When has ignoring a growing problem ever led to something good?

 

[Menifeer]

Why is it so important for you that Tesla does not take this risk seriously?

Many have stated that this issue of general perception will create a big issue for Tesla, you seem to be the only one saying that is should be ignored. When has ignoring a growing problem ever led to something good?

Yes. As long as Teslas in AP keep running into stationary objects, the bad press will continue.

Fix the friggin' problem!