I probably misunderstand what you are trying to say. But they have a backlog in deliveries from Q2, which are the 14k in transit. why would deliveries then dip (beyond the few days they have/had the issue with the software to print contract information?
Possibility that Deliveries might stay steady : deliveries in the near term are potentially bottlenecked (if not, only because other factors are an earlier bottleneck) by transportation logistics, number of locations and number of deliveries each can handle, etc to some number X per week. If this was not a bottleneck before, it might be now. Perhaps by coincidence, the delivery rate during the time they avoided 200K was well matched to the number that weren't being delayed to avoid 200K - this would mean that once they stop delaying, they still can't deliver faster.
Possibility that Deliveries might go up then down : perhaps instead they can deliver far more than they have in the past, and so they will deliver the ~2 week backlog in addition to the ongoing production fast enough to see delivery rate go much higher for some number of weeks - but if the production rate doesn't scale up as the backlog empties out, then delivery rate will drop to wherever production rate is at afterwards
Realistically there is a peak rate at which they can deliver vehicles but trying to calculate it might be a fool's errand. Every delivery location (including galleries/stores, service centers, dedicated delivery centers, etc) will have quite different ability to deliver (due to size physically as well as in employees to perform delivery), and so will the delivery demand (or vehicle supply) to those locations (as the chances of vehicles being ordered exactly matching the capability of each delivery location is not very high). Some locations will have trouble scheduling deliveries due to too many incoming cars to deliver, others will have open schedules due to not enough incoming cars, and this may well vary week to week both due to the transportation logistics and also the various demand levers Tesla pulls (like opening up AWD or Performance models, as AWD is going to be more common in areas where AWD is typically favored such as snowy areas, for example - and this will cause delivery surges out of sync with other areas).
I expect that, overall, both production and delivery will trend up, and that overall delivery may just lag production by a week or two once we get past the backlog (which we might already be), but I would not be surprised to either see delivery flat or only slowly rising for some time despite more quickly increasing production, or a spike in delivery that exceeds production, then a return to previous levels and a slow rise reflecting production.
