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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I expect that someone high up at Tesla is keeping an eye on the expiration/introduction of subsidies in all major countries so deliveries can be timed to markets that maximize Tesla's global benefit from subsidies.

Since the German 4 k€ BEV subsidy expires with 2019H1 and since during those six months it exceeds the US federal tax credit, I would expect Tesla to start inviting German reservations holders to configure during Q4 so German deliveries can start early next year and keep up with German demand until 19H1 finishes.

All German reservation holders are waiting for the Model 3 to appear on the BAFA list of eligible BEVs here:
BAFA - Elektromobilität
- since that will be a sure sign that German deliveries are imminent.

Btw, hilarity will ensue once deliveries in Germany commence, with the media developing instant schizophrenia:
Das Model 3 ist fantastisch! Aber es ist nicht deutsch!...

Oder: Die Scheisse amerikanischen Autohäuser ein auto mit Deutsch Seele fabrizieren.
 
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They probably also have the Nomura Instinet report used in this article as a source, sounds about the same:

Our supply chain checks in Taiwan and Korea indicate that Tesla is currently procuring Model 3 parts at a rate of over 6,000 per week (these parts include: temperature management solutions, wiring harnesses, brake cams, gears, and axles

Buy Tesla shares for the coming 'step-function up' in sales: Instinet

I think axles would be a great indicator, since they are heavy, bulky, take up a lot of warehouse/storage space, etc

remember the axle suppliers were among the first to be told to pause delivery when the model 3 battery pack bottleneck issues cropped up.
 
Not to jinx it, but:

Tesla once again has the largest market cap among U.S. automakers.

I’ve been noticing them trading places all morning. I’m sure they’ll trade places many more times in the future, but it’s nice to see.

I want to see Tesla have the highest market cap amongst USA automakers.

But not because Detroit is bankrupt.
 
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Not to jinx it, but:

Tesla once again has the largest market cap among U.S. automakers.

I’ve been noticing them trading places all morning. I’m sure they’ll trade places many more times in the future, but it’s nice to see.

That's always interesting. But the situation with Tesla can't be directly compared with the other US automakers. Tesla has its own sales and service network; the others do not. Tesla has its own fueling network; the others do not. Tesla is also a solar roof and energy storage company; the others are not.

To truly compare valuations, for the other automakers we would have to consider the value of their franchised dealerships, and a portion of the oil industry including gas stations.
 
That's always interesting. But the situation with Tesla can't be directly compared with the other US automakers.

We have seen this caveat posted over and over again. We get it.

Daimler-Benz is a conglomerate with only half of its revenue coming from Mercedes Cars.

BMW has a motorcycle division and aircraft engine division.

Honda has motorcycle,aircraft, ATV-jet ski, lawnmower garden tool divisions.

Toyota has a marine division, agriculture & biotech division, and a nascent energy division focusing on the "hydrogen economy of the future."

But we still compare them.
 
That's always interesting. But the situation with Tesla can't be directly compared with the other US automakers. Tesla has its own sales and service network; the others do not. Tesla has its own fueling network; the others do not. Tesla is also a solar roof and energy storage company; the others are not.

To truly compare valuations, for the other automakers we would have to consider the value of their franchised dealerships, and a portion of the oil industry including gas stations.

what’s more, compare ~2-5% annual growth to 50% annual growth and tremendous sunken assets in a business very likely on its way out (ICE).

nothing wrong with valuing Tesla like an automaker... an automaker growing at 50% per year into a market very likely to grow from about 500,000 units sold per year to about 100 million units sold per year.
 
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We have seen this caveat posted over and over again. We get it.

Daimler-Benz is a conglomerate with only half of its revenue coming from Mercedes Cars.

BMW has a motorcycle division and aircraft engine division.

Honda has motorcycle,aircraft, ATV-jet ski, lawnmower garden tool divisions.

Toyota has a marine division, agriculture & biotech division, and a nascent energy division focusing on the "hydrogen economy of the future."

But we still compare them.

The poster to whom I was responding was specifically comparing the market cap of Tesla to the other US, not foreign, automakers. In any event, he apparently was not aware of the considerations I mentioned. Thus this being posted "over and over again" for his benefit. You are free to ignore it.
 
That's always interesting. But the situation with Tesla can't be directly compared with the other US automakers. Tesla has its own sales and service network; the others do not. Tesla has its own fueling network; the others do not. Tesla is also a solar roof and energy storage company; the others are not.

To truly compare valuations, for the other automakers we would have to consider the value of their franchised dealerships, and a portion of the oil industry including gas stations.

Tesla sells the razor handles, the razor blades, and the beard...
 
That's always interesting. But the situation with Tesla can't be directly compared with the other US automakers. Tesla has its own sales and service network; the others do not. Tesla has its own fueling network; the others do not. Tesla is also a solar roof and energy storage company; the others are not.

To truly compare valuations, for the other automakers we would have to consider the value of their franchised dealerships, and a portion of the oil industry including gas stations.

Very true.

One thing I haven’t seen pointed out, though, is just how little investors value the earnings of ICE automakers. If GM had the same PE ratio as the average S&P 500 company, its market cap would be around $150B.

These low valuations aren’t because they’re automakers, but because they’re stuck with a dying technology & either don’t care or don’t know how to transition to a better technology. Therefore, they’re valued like cigarette makers, or Blockbuster Video, or Toys R’ Us. The only way to avoid bankruptcy is to figure out the transition, or be acquired by a company that has figured it out.
 
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