Esme Es Mejor
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It isn’t too late for them. Next week should feature great prices on TSLA, though probably a bit higher than Friday. I think it’s possible the media manages to keep the price down into early October.
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It isn’t too late for them. Next week should feature great prices on TSLA, though probably a bit higher than Friday. I think it’s possible the media manages to keep the price down into early October.
I remember in 2013 it was after Elon's profitability tweet I finally decided to buy. That would be the equivalent of October and I certainly wasn't too late. Btw I notice that Tesla delivered 2,400 cars in Q4 2012 and 4,900 in Q1 2013. Interesting they more than doubled their deliveries from one quarter to the next. It seems history may be repeating itself. We'll see in November.
We will see delivery/production numbers in early October and probably be able to model the financials prior to the ER/CC in late October/early November. There is an off chance that with the release of delivery/production numbers in about 3 weeks Deepak may also be able to know...and EM *could* share...reaffirmation of 'profit'.
It won't be audited but they will know with almost certainty. The question is whether there's a tweet or something saying profitability or whether there will be another month of "Tesla sold a bunch more cars so they must be losing more money"
After Elon posted the e-mail to employees and made it public, I'm starting to think the outrageous crap Elon has been doing lately is actually him doing a pre-victory lap.
Elon is a genius, and he's at a different level than all major CEO's. We know this, and he definitely knows this. Given the enormous difficulty of the tasks he's challenging (building a highly profitable mass produced EV), one can imagine the indignation he has been feeling for all the disrespect and stupidity of the shorts and media doubting him and talking smack about Tesla.
Elon is now highly fueled by this indignation to prove all the doubters want. What Elon wants is to be described, as written in his e-mail, a crazy "badass".
I suspect what he's doing is that he knows Q3 is going to be the most amazing quarter Tesla will ever have, and he's doing a "pre-victory lap". What I mean by that is that he's doing all these ridiculous stunts like smoking weed so that after Q3 earnings comes and Tesla kills it, and then Q4 earning does the final reaffirmation that Tesla has "completely turned around", Elon will be hailed and known as the CEO that smoked weed and did all these crazy stuff, AND defied all expectations and brought Tesla to crazy success. That's the ultimate "badass-ery" and will likely cause him to be treated as a meme God amongst young people that he wants to reach out to, while giving the ultimate middle finger to the shorts and the fake news media.
This is exactly the kind of boost that someone that has been tortured as much as Elon lately needs for recovery. And Elon loves doing this kind of stuff (which made him Iron Man a few years ago). This is all part of his pre-victory lap, setting up all the pieces to become a legend.
Elon is a genius, and he's at a different level than all major CEO's. We know this, and he definitely knows this. Given the enormous difficulty of the tasks he's challenging (building a highly profitable mass produced EV), one can imagine the indignation he has been feeling for all the disrespect and stupidity of the shorts and media doubting him and talking smack about Tesla.
Elon is now highly fueled by this indignation to prove all the doubters want. What Elon wants is to be described, as written in his e-mail, a crazy "badass".
I suspect what he's doing is that he knows Q3 is going to be the most amazing quarter Tesla will ever have, and he's doing a "pre-victory lap". What I mean by that is that he's doing all these ridiculous stunts like smoking weed so that after Q3 earnings comes and Tesla kills it, and then Q4 earning does the final reaffirmation that Tesla has "completely turned around", Elon will be hailed and known as the CEO that smoked weed and did all these crazy stuff, AND defied all expectations and brought Tesla to crazy success. That's the ultimate "badass-ery" and will likely cause him to be treated as a meme God amongst young people that he wants to reach out to, while giving the ultimate middle finger to the shorts and the fake news media.
This is exactly the kind of boost that someone that has been tortured as much as Elon lately needs for recovery. And Elon loves doing this kind of stuff (which made him Iron Man a few years ago). This is all part of his pre-victory lap, setting up all the pieces to become a legend.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
You might be on to something. I think it all comes down to he knows he's made it out of the woods and he's tired of taking *sugar* from everyone. Hence his snub of the stock annalists, don't need to raise capitol, and burn of the century comments, twitter fight with pedo guy, desire to go private, allowing himself to open up emotionally about how hard things have been with the NYT interview, agreeing to an interview with a guy that does drugs with guests on his show. Maybe he's not losing it after all. He just knows he's winning and he's fed up with being PC all the time.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I can't say I'm ready to sign onto the interpretation, but I know I like it
I dont really buy that interpretation, Elon is just a man with to much media exposure. Honestly, no one in CA gives a *sugar* that he smoked a blunt. The amount of attention he gets is unreal, if not for that attention I doubt anyone would bat an eye at his actions.
Elon said that the worst is still to come. Even if Tesla does overachieve all the guidance for Q3 they will just need to get going.
The market will try to spin the facts in negatives and we will see an entire new wave of unrelated FUD appear.
Operation, production, expansion and inventing will not be easier. The next hurdle will then be to repeat the success from Q3 in Q4.
Having said that, I doubt that there is any sense of victory with Elon. What he would describe as victory is if the entire industry is moving into sustainable energy and not if they made their Q3 numbers.
Lets not forget Elons objectives are long term goals. This may have been a won battle and Elon overseas that already as many others here but its just not more than that and the war is a long one...
The market will try to spin the facts in negatives and we will see an entire new wave of unrelated FUD appear.
Operation, production, expansion and inventing will not be easier. The next hurdle will then be to repeat the success from Q3 in Q4.
Having said that, I doubt that there is any sense of victory with Elon. What he would describe as victory is if the entire industry is moving into sustainable energy and not if they made their Q3 numbers.
Lets not forget Elons objectives are long term goals. This may have been a won battle and Elon overseas that already as many others here but its just not more than that and the war is a long one...
The only thing I’m worried about is if the press succeeds in their (now explicitly stated) current goal of getting the board to remove Musk. Every. Single. Event. Is being brought up in the context of the board possibly removing him for it(including CNBC saying in a non-opinion-piece that he should be removed for smoking pot because it’s an illegal drug under federal law). I’ve now seen articles outright demanding that the board remove him.
As to why they would be doing this: they spent months attacking Tesla’s fundamentals but can’t really anymore. Even where they can, the lack of a need for further capital market help means it isn’t effective in harming the company beyond small temporary shocks to the SP. But Musk is essentially the equivalent of Steve Jobs at Apple. If they can get the board to remove him then you can expect Tesla to go the same way Apple did in the early 90’s. And they don’t need fundamentals to attack him with the board. They just need to show him as “harming shareholders”, in any way. The company can be running perfectly smoothly and making enormous profits, but if the stock drops because every outlet is flooding the airwaves with Elon taking a puff of a (legal) drug, that’s still ammunition.
As to why they would be doing this: they spent months attacking Tesla’s fundamentals but can’t really anymore. Even where they can, the lack of a need for further capital market help means it isn’t effective in harming the company beyond small temporary shocks to the SP. But Musk is essentially the equivalent of Steve Jobs at Apple. If they can get the board to remove him then you can expect Tesla to go the same way Apple did in the early 90’s. And they don’t need fundamentals to attack him with the board. They just need to show him as “harming shareholders”, in any way. The company can be running perfectly smoothly and making enormous profits, but if the stock drops because every outlet is flooding the airwaves with Elon taking a puff of a (legal) drug, that’s still ammunition.
I dont think TSLA's is as sure shot as that med student analogy. Because, I know otherwise very sensible people in the finance industry who give great advice about long term etf only investing etc but when it comes to TSLA, here is what he has to say:
"Its financing situation is pretty consistently precarious; they're effectively dependent on the good graces of the capital markets to keep the lights on, and that can change at a moment's notice"
I have a bet also with such a person for $100. He says TSLA will not be profitable for 2 consecutive qtrs in next 2 years. I have accepted his bet.
When I was at Daimler 10 years ago, they were very worried about their aging customer base and how they could make younger people buy Mercedes. Maybe Zetsche should do an interview with Joe Rogan as well!
As much as I want your theory to be correct, shere logic is speaking against this. It makes no sense.
He was planning to do a short squeeze of the century about 2 months ago and tweeted about his plans. 3 weeks later, he wanted to take Tesla private and we all know by today that his plan was a huge failure.
The current environment at Tesla is therefore a mixture between confusion and fear. What we've seen on the show when he smoked weed was a more or less broken, tired and depressed Elon Musk I have never seen before in other videos, where he still had energy and enthusiasm.
Let's sum it up:
- He failed to take Tesla private and so at a very high price (loosing both reputation and credibility), whatsover is the reason, he never made an actual proof that funding was indeed secure and the deal structure wasn't even clear nor on paper
- The FUD is huge on media, customer and shareholder site
- He got sued by various Class law action suits and the outcome is still unsure and might cause further fear, as his liquidity is wholly invested in Tesla and SpaceX
- There is a SEC investigation ongoing that might result in further action against him and/or Tesla
- The thai rescue diver story is pure negativity for his reputation as a CEO and Chairman of a public company, further depressing stock price
- We have seen a tired an depressed Elon Musk on the Joe Rogan show - Please compare prior interviews with him - you'll see the difference
- We've just seen two major directors leave Tesla (HR director and Chief accounting officer). Elon and the board decided to reorganize the responsabilities within the firm - a good step in the right direction but confirms the above mentioned points. There was just too much going on at Tesla.
- Whether Q3 2018 will be an outstanding quarter or not - we don't know yet and all is just guessing. The 2X delivered vehicles is a nice indicator but this does not mean that they will be actually profitable - and if they're not - this might lead to further pressure on the stock price as ceteris paribus all other things are already priced in the stock price as of today.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I really do not think they are. Time and time again, when I speak to people who claim to be aware of tesla, their aims, their position, and their product, they have absolutely NO idea how many pre-orders they have, how many cars they are producing, and the rate at which production is climbing. They also seem to think that the LEAF and I-Pace are serious competition,
The more people who see a model 3, get a lift in a model 3, or know someone who buys one, the more that opinion will change.
And lets not forget that the number of people who invest in tesla after buying the car and loving it is unlikely to be trivial. Every model 3 that rolls off the production line is not only persuading others to buy an M3, but persuading people to invest in a rapidly growing company.
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STARR X
Member
I also feel, to some extent, he is helping all the shorts by not giving a *sugar* about the stock price leading up to the 3rd quarter and letting it fall so they can get out before an epic 3rd quarter. As some people note around here, he is playing 3D chess to everyone else’s regular game. At least this is what I’m hoping is going on.
Why would EM want to 'help the shorts'? I feel that EM is a visionary/genius but that he is not 'crazy like a fox' when it comes to his personal life. His missteps personally recently are not 3D chess, just, IMO, mistakes in judgement. If he is trying to help the shorts and hurt the longs he is doing a good job. Even if the SP rockets with the Q3 deliveries/production numbers 40% from the current SP we are still below ATH.
Long term, bulls will be better off than bears. Short term this has not been a 'good look' for EM and therefor Tesla/TSLA.
On the bright side I believe the elevation of Jerome and others to positions of greater authority will prove to be very helpful. It may signal that EM can get a break from the day to day running of the company. He might even claim this was all part of the plan he laid out years ago where he could reduce his time/position at Tesla once the model 3 had ramped.
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Friends don't let friends sell Tesla ATM.
Anyone who fell for the clickbait deserves to lose their shirt.
"Oh hey, the fundamentals of this company are rocking - production is soaring, margins are soaring, demand is huge, analysts say they can cheaply and readily double production, and they've already raised 1/3rd of the cost of the factory they plan to build in China that they only just recently announced. But the CEO took a whiff of a joint and said he doesn't like pot, and two of Tesla's two dozen people at the VP-or-higher level resigned recently, so SELL SELL SELL!"
"Oh hey, the fundamentals of this company are rocking - production is soaring, margins are soaring, demand is huge, analysts say they can cheaply and readily double production, and they've already raised 1/3rd of the cost of the factory they plan to build in China that they only just recently announced. But the CEO took a whiff of a joint and said he doesn't like pot, and two of Tesla's two dozen people at the VP-or-higher level resigned recently, so SELL SELL SELL!"
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