SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Reference ?
A quick Google of the Q1 conference call:
- Model 3 development nearly complete - testing Release Candidates. On track for production in July, rapming to 5k/wk bp EOY 2017 and 10k/week by EOY 2018.
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A quick Google of the Q1 conference call:
cdub
OG 2011 Leaf / 2023 Model Y LR
More likely they are built by machine but run super slow so they can make sure all of the steps are correct and working.
The hand built ones are the ones on the road now.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Based on what I personally saw at factory tours in April and again in June (four weeks ago), I still stand by my "hand-built" comment. The production line was nowhere near ready to even run in "slow mode" four weeks out.
I do believe however that given three full months (June, July, and August) that they can get the M3 line running in "slow mode" in September, which is slated for just 1500 cars. Makes sense.
I agree with @electracity , some of the 30, maybe most of them, will be regular customers. It would be a PR disaster to have a bunch of Tesla employee's take all those cars, despite what's said in the Master Plan. Now the reality, of course, is that those 30 customers are already known, have spec'd their cars, and signed a serious NDA to not discuss it now, or when they take delivery, other than obligatory PR niceties. There will be another set of cars going to employees, maybe most of them after the first 30, but even that's assuming the 'first 30' really are that.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
I think whether or not you find this news exciting depends on whether you have generally optimistic or pessimistic views on projections. I have a pessimistic view on projections. They mean basically nothing to me. What does mean a lot to me is real production.
Breakthrough battery technology. Futuristic car technology shown by other car manufacturers. Carbon capture and storage. Flywheels and pumped storage for renewable energy. Nothing. It's all nothing. It never happens. It's basically not real. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but I give it basically no weight and have no expectations for any of it to ever be real. Saves me a lot of disappointment.
So from that perspective, this is the first news where it seems to imply they are ready for real production, and that makes it exciting. Even if the numbers are below earlier projections.
That's my take on it anyway.
Breakthrough battery technology. Futuristic car technology shown by other car manufacturers. Carbon capture and storage. Flywheels and pumped storage for renewable energy. Nothing. It's all nothing. It never happens. It's basically not real. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but I give it basically no weight and have no expectations for any of it to ever be real. Saves me a lot of disappointment.
So from that perspective, this is the first news where it seems to imply they are ready for real production, and that makes it exciting. Even if the numbers are below earlier projections.
That's my take on it anyway.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
So far the Musk projection that was most off is related to Bolt sales. He guessed up to 30k in 2017.
I notice that the "My Tesla" part of the site is down today. Perhaps we will see some changes here?? Configurations??
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Read the tax credit clarification again. It is not base on production but rather US deliveries.
Also slowness of the Model 3 production ramp doesn't really matter. What matters is that as soon as Tesla hits the 200k, the Model 3 deliveries are set up to the maximum amount. They need to time the 200k delivery to happen at the beginning of the quarter and this would allow them to get up to 6 months of full credit then another 6 months of half credit, then another 6 months of quarter credit. The fade out period has no volume limits.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tax-credit-clarification.67625/
Anyone else completely ok with not being first in line? It gives them time to iron out the inevitable issues in early samples. They can be the guinea pigs! I win!
<end rationalization for being at unit 400,000+
. why is there no cry emoji>
<end rationalization for being at unit 400,000+
. why is there no cry emoji>
HankLloydRight
No Roads
I reserved at the March 2016 M3 reveal party, and am an existing owner. But I'll most likely wait for the AWD version whenever that gets released.
While I have ZERO confidence Tesla will hit these numbers, I'm not sure the ramp-up really matters. Tesla's launches have been underwhelming and slow to date. 6+ months later it doesn't make much difference. Yes, if there was some other competitor nipping at their heals it would matter more, but that's just not the case. The Bolt has experienced a luke warm reception to date and neither it or anyone else has the supercharger capability that Tesla offer OR the "cool factor" (the latter can't be overlooked...a marketer's dream).
So if the "slow launch" isn't going to have a long term impact, what would? In my estimation, significant quality issues would be much more devastating. Indeed at work we are pressured to "make the date" almost as a matter-of-course, BUT when push comes to shove a quality disaster has a much bigger downside than "missing the date" does. As an aside, one way companies mitigate the "perceived" impact of missing the date is to launch "on time" but with dramatically reduced volume. It's almost a normal event these days..."Pop the cork, we made the launch on time...never mind we only filled one order...WE MADE IT!" Tesla is likely in this state right now, but it seems so "normal" to me (and I suspect many of you working in corporate America) that it's hard to get too worked up about it.
So if the "slow launch" isn't going to have a long term impact, what would? In my estimation, significant quality issues would be much more devastating. Indeed at work we are pressured to "make the date" almost as a matter-of-course, BUT when push comes to shove a quality disaster has a much bigger downside than "missing the date" does. As an aside, one way companies mitigate the "perceived" impact of missing the date is to launch "on time" but with dramatically reduced volume. It's almost a normal event these days..."Pop the cork, we made the launch on time...never mind we only filled one order...WE MADE IT!" Tesla is likely in this state right now, but it seems so "normal" to me (and I suspect many of you working in corporate America) that it's hard to get too worked up about it.
Neo_fd3s
Member
There are a lot of "know it alls" on the Internet nowadays. People are never satisfied.
I for one welcome the good news. July 28th is going to be a great day. Can't wait to see some production models on the road.
Chevy has done the Bolt wrong. Sure, they made a long range electric car affordable to the masses, but it has no infrastructure in place nor does it have any public backing from the main company. It's just a toy to them to get you in their dealerships so they can sell you something else.
The Model 3 is going to be a huge game changer. I know for sure all these people driving around in their 3 series, C class's will be itching to trade their rides in for the Tesla. In my area, there are a ton of BMW's and Mercedes's. The higher end scale lineups have been giving way to Tesla models S and X.
The revolution is just around the corner.
I for one welcome the good news. July 28th is going to be a great day. Can't wait to see some production models on the road.
Chevy has done the Bolt wrong. Sure, they made a long range electric car affordable to the masses, but it has no infrastructure in place nor does it have any public backing from the main company. It's just a toy to them to get you in their dealerships so they can sell you something else.
The Model 3 is going to be a huge game changer. I know for sure all these people driving around in their 3 series, C class's will be itching to trade their rides in for the Tesla. In my area, there are a ton of BMW's and Mercedes's. The higher end scale lineups have been giving way to Tesla models S and X.
The revolution is just around the corner.
I was speaking of the expectations for the information released yesterday. All Elon ever said was that there would be information on the final release date, and we got that. Now if you think there should be more info available you can think whatever you like, Tesla thinks otherwise.
Why? They've said they were going to do that all along, everyone knows it, the media has mentioned it, the customers know it. Why would doing what they said they were going to do be a disaster?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Because Pete doesn't want it that way.
Hey Flamingoeez,
I thought I would save you time and just write this out for you.
You are welcome.
-------------------------------------------------
I am just WAITING for a Model 3 head to head vs the Bolt!!!
Because there is no way Tesla can make a car at a similar price point to compete with the Bolt. Don't you know GM is the technology and production leader in EVs?
And even if Tesla can make a couple there is no way they can scale to more than a few thousand units. Didn't you see the Model X launch?
Plus there will be no demand. Those rich liberals in California can only support so many sales of 100k cars and the fools who put down deposits for the Model 3 are the rest of the market.
Anyways Audi is coming. Just you wait till 2018, I mean 2019, I mean 2020. Tesla will be DOOMED I tell you.
I thought I would save you time and just write this out for you.
You are welcome.
-------------------------------------------------
I am just WAITING for a Model 3 head to head vs the Bolt!!!
Because there is no way Tesla can make a car at a similar price point to compete with the Bolt. Don't you know GM is the technology and production leader in EVs?
And even if Tesla can make a couple there is no way they can scale to more than a few thousand units. Didn't you see the Model X launch?
Plus there will be no demand. Those rich liberals in California can only support so many sales of 100k cars and the fools who put down deposits for the Model 3 are the rest of the market.
Anyways Audi is coming. Just you wait till 2018, I mean 2019, I mean 2020. Tesla will be DOOMED I tell you.
My reservation e-mail says Model 3 Production is set to begin in Late 2017.
July 28 isn't late 2017.
July 28 isn't late 2017.
I took that to mean production for reservation holders around my spot in line will begin late 2017.
EDIT: I just logged into My Tesla and it says "Deliveries will begin late 2017" not production.
cdub
OG 2011 Leaf / 2023 Model Y LR
The only take away from Musk's announcement is production is starting. That's it.
I'm 99.99% sure his internal goals are far, far, far more aggressive and that actual production pace has excellent chance of going much faster than stated. There's also a chance it will go slower than predicted due to supply/production issues.
Remember, Musk is trying really hard to sell what he can deliver today, Model S/X. Model 3 must be anti sold until production is at least twice as MS and MX combined, and at least half of reservations have been fulfilled.
Its not Musk/Tesla's interest at this point to be transparent. They must keep $$$ coming in with MS/MX sales.
The talk that the first 30 cars will be hand made is non sense. The cars will be made will as much automation as possible so they can iron out the kinks now rather than later. Making the cars in a very different way to regular production 2 months from now is illogical.
Production now must be as much as possible a full rehearsal of how it will be done a few months from now. What actually makes sense is to run the line for a few days, a few weeks ahead of delivery, and test if the cars are good enough for delivery. Its quite likely that when the first 30 cars are delivered, hundreds more will be ready as well. As long as there is no shortage of parts.
I'm 99.99% sure his internal goals are far, far, far more aggressive and that actual production pace has excellent chance of going much faster than stated. There's also a chance it will go slower than predicted due to supply/production issues.
Remember, Musk is trying really hard to sell what he can deliver today, Model S/X. Model 3 must be anti sold until production is at least twice as MS and MX combined, and at least half of reservations have been fulfilled.
Its not Musk/Tesla's interest at this point to be transparent. They must keep $$$ coming in with MS/MX sales.
The talk that the first 30 cars will be hand made is non sense. The cars will be made will as much automation as possible so they can iron out the kinks now rather than later. Making the cars in a very different way to regular production 2 months from now is illogical.
Production now must be as much as possible a full rehearsal of how it will be done a few months from now. What actually makes sense is to run the line for a few days, a few weeks ahead of delivery, and test if the cars are good enough for delivery. Its quite likely that when the first 30 cars are delivered, hundreds more will be ready as well. As long as there is no shortage of parts.
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