Has anyone else spent time calculating possible Model 3 pricing...

[Topher]

I might spring for a $500 trailer hitch.

I am hoping that the autopilot price drops, as it is in Tesla's interest (and super secret plan for world domintation) to get it in as many cars as possible. Software is cheap at 100,000 units.

AWD drive would be nice, but probably not affordable.

I will only need a supercharger a few times a year, not worth $2000 up front, so I hope there is a reasonable priced way to accomplish that.

Most of the rest is silliness to me, but thanks to everyone who does buy them, and makes my baseline version possible.

Thank you kindly.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

For those of you that are looking to build out your Model 3 to $60k...
Why wouldn't you purchase a 2014 P85 Performance now with 20k miles for less?

One of the main reasons I reserved the Model 3 is the 35k price point. (I think that the majority or reservations will also be closer to the $35k-42k avg that Tesla uses)

Remember our Tesla will be worth 50-57% after three years.

Autopilot 2.0??

And my garage won't fit a Model S without rubbing Crisco down the sides.

 

[MTATX]

Hello everyone! New to TMC and am a Model 3 reservation holder. Below is a link to a pricing template I put together for the M3. Feel free to try it out. The option costs loaded into the tool are based on my opinion. They could end up higher or lower, however I feel they are close to what we will see come M3 design studio.
My tool assumes a few things:
* Most of the S & X options will be available for the 3.
* options in green will scale down in cost by ~20%(adjustable in tool). All other options will stay in line with M-S/X costs.
* taxes & other fees are based on the state of TX( adjustable in the tool).
* there will be two battery upg options. List costs are my opinion
* super charging costs are not factored in

Everything in the tool is adjustable; toggle options in or out and overall cost will update. You can also load your own list costs on page 2(option cost builder) or play with the overall discounting of options - page 2(Input in green).

MT's M3 cost template

My goal is to help people understand what they are getting into with the 3 and to prepare accordingly. I am all about hoping for the best, but planning for the worst....At the end of the day I truly believe Tesla will deliver an incredible EV for $35k. However my gut tells me Tesla will make little, if any, margin selling a base version. So something has to give....

Thanks!
MT

 

[zuwarrior14]

Hello everyone! New to TMC and am a Model 3 reservation holder. Below is a link to a pricing template I put together for the M3. Feel free to try it out. The option costs loaded into the tool are based on my opinion. They could end up higher or lower, however I feel they are close to what we will see come M3 design studio.
My tool assumes a few things:
* Most of the S & X options will be available for the 3.
* options in green will scale down in cost by ~20%(adjustable in tool). All other options will stay in line with M-S/X costs.
* taxes & other fees are based on the state of TX( adjustable in the tool).
* there will be two battery upg options. List costs are my opinion
* super charging costs are not factored in

Everything in the tool is adjustable; toggle options in or out and overall cost will update. You can also load your own list costs on page 2(option cost builder) or play with the overall discounting of options - page 2(Input in green).

MT's M3 cost template

My goal is to help people understand what they are getting into with the 3 and to prepare accordingly. I am all about hoping for the best, but planning for the worst....At the end of the day I truly believe Tesla will deliver an incredible EV for $35k. However my gut tells me Tesla will make little, if any, margin selling a base version. So something has to give....

Thanks!
MT

For the performance you think it would go up to 19K (AWD and biggest battery upgrade)? My take is around $16-17K.

 

[MTATX]

For the performance you think it would go up to 19K (AWD and biggest battery upgrade)? My take is around $16-17K.

Very possible; the battery is my biggest question mark... I would imagine AWD will be standard for the performance pack, if available at launch. For my sheet, I would zero AWD out if you opt for the performance pack. Still had to add it for toggling the smaller pack option.

 

[Steepler2k]

It's an $18k jump from a rear-wheel drive 70 to a 90D.

The big unknown is how much savings from gigafactory are priced into the jump to the bigger battery. Also, how much is the difference? Will it be a 20kWh jump like for the S/X (e.g. 60/80). Or will efficiency improvements of weight/battery/motor mean 55/70 is preferred? How much will space contraints play into the decision?

If dual motors is lumped into the upgraded battery (like it is for the S), I think many will get priced out of the increase, if you use the current prices.

 

[model3fan]

Hello everyone! New to TMC and am a Model 3 reservation holder. Below is a link to a pricing template I put together for the M3. Feel free to try it out. The option costs loaded into the tool are based on my opinion. They could end up higher or lower, however I feel they are close to what we will see come M3 design studio.
My tool assumes a few things:
* Most of the S & X options will be available for the 3.
* options in green will scale down in cost by ~20%(adjustable in tool). All other options will stay in line with M-S/X costs.
* taxes & other fees are based on the state of TX( adjustable in the tool).
* there will be two battery upg options. List costs are my opinion
* super charging costs are not factored in

Everything in the tool is adjustable; toggle options in or out and overall cost will update. You can also load your own list costs on page 2(option cost builder) or play with the overall discounting of options - page 2(Input in green).

MT's M3 cost template

My goal is to help people understand what they are getting into with the 3 and to prepare accordingly. I am all about hoping for the best, but planning for the worst....At the end of the day I truly believe Tesla will deliver an incredible EV for $35k. However my gut tells me Tesla will make little, if any, margin selling a base version. So something has to give....

Thanks!
MT

Like your idea to use a variable for discount on options. Might put that into my spreadsheet on my site, makes a lot of sense. The $7500 off is a bit misleading though, whether paying cash or loan, hopefully people realize they aren't really subtracting $7500 until tax time, and that's if the credit si left for them, and they qualify.

 

[MassModel3]

Don't forget that not too long ago, EM tweeted that if current owners who want larger batteries don't really need them right away, hold off on buying them.

The gigafactory is expected to make batteries considerably cheaper than they are today. My hope is that going from, oh, say, a 60 to a 90 on the Model 3 is only going to be a few thousand dollars difference. Of course, the larger battery option will likely come with a dual motor configuration, so add another 3 - 4 thousand for that. But I really don't see it being in the upper teens, as some suggest, to get a larger battery and dual motors.

Edit: I can't find the reference, maybe it wasn't a tweet.

 

[MTATX]

Like your idea to use a variable for discount on options. Might put that into my spreadsheet on my site, makes a lot of sense. The $7500 off is a bit misleading though, whether paying cash or loan, hopefully people realize they aren't really subtracting $7500 until tax time, and that's if the credit si left for them, and they qualify.

Agree 100%; tried to put that variable as low as I could on the spreadsheet

 

[zuwarrior14]

Can you elaborate on "Hold off"? It gives the impression that you can upgrade the battery at later time or something (for cheap of course)....

 

[ZAKEEUS]

They have made comments in the past about the Gigafactory lowering battery costs by 50% but the question is if their costs will translate to our price for the upgrade.

 

[zuwarrior14]

The cheaper the battery the more money I can put into other options... crossing fingers...

 

[Trips]

Budget: $65,000 less $7,500 ($57,500 with no tax credit)

Base $ 35,000.00
Larger battery $5,000.00
Supercharging (Included in larger battery)
Duel Motors $ 4,000.00
Auto-Pilot $ 2,500.00
Leather Seats $ 2,000.00
Premium Interior $ 2,500.00
Sub-Zero $ 1,000.00
Total: $ 52,000.00

Maybe:
Performance $ 10,000.00
Ludicrous $ 5,000.00
Smart Air Suspension $ 2,500.00
Rims $2,500
Towing (bike only) $500.00

Hopefully:
Electronic Tint $2,500 – Yes if available
Touchless Charging: $1,500 – Yes if available
Quad Motors $8,000 (Replaces Duel Motors)

 

[wbrumfiel]

I know I will want everything under the sun but I will be trying to stay below $60k. I will wait to decide what is in and what is out when that time comes.

 

[voip-ninja]

Not likely, here is my guess:

Option Model 3
Base $ 35,000.00
Larger battery $ 7,500.00
Supercharging (Included in larger battery)
AWD $ 4,000.00
Performance $ 10,000.00
Ludicrous $ 5,000.00
Total: $ 61,500.00

Other options that you must not be planning on:
Paint $ 1,000.00
Wheels $ 2,500.00
Auto-Pilot $ 2,500.00
Leather Seats $ 2,000.00
Premium Interior $ 2,500.00
Panoramic Roof $ 1,500.00
Fancy trim (Carbon fiber) $ 750.00
HiFi $ 2,000.00
Sub-Zero $ 1,000.00
High amp charger $ 1,000.00
Towing option $ 750.00
Smart Air Suspension $ 2,500.00
Carbon Fiber Spoiler $ 1,000.00
$ 21,000.00

The idea that a fully loaded Model 3 will be pushing $90K before tax credit is, frankly, ridiculous to me. Tesla is really eyeing other luxury marquees with this car so they are going to be pricing it similarly to Mercedes C class, BMW 3 series, A4, all of those have a similar average price of around $42-$45K that Elon thought the median price of Model 3.

Even a fully loaded Model 3 that is designed to compete with BMW M3/340xi, Mercedes C450, Audi S4... those cars are typically upper $50K to mid 60K price point. Hard for me to even entertain the thought that Elon thinks he will be selling them for $90,000.

 

[pmich80]

Yes. My husband and I have a spreadsheet. We're not 100% set on which options we'll choose. We have a top-end price we want to stay under; hopefully we can get all the options we want.

care to share it? i'd like to see it and build upon.

 

[pmich80]

I'm assuming the "baked-in" capabilities can be unlocked for a fee anytime after purchase? In that case, I'd get the important hardware (performance/dual motor) and upgrade to the unlockable goodies when the budget permits.

i wonder...how does that work if you lease a car? is this even possible? i mean the agreement states there's a specific residual value but if you add a new feature doesn't that increase the value of the car. hmmmm i wonder if you pay full price or the pro-rated value based on your lease.

 

[HanSolo]

Until we see a more official ordering guide, this is really all speculation. Whether I keep my reservation or not will depend on the final cost of AWD as I absolutely need the ability to be somewhere no matter the weather. I can hold my current car for a few more years but my backup should a Tesla be not in my range will be along the lines of a Ford Fusion Sport or Ford Edge Sport(about $45k). A reasonably priced battery upgrade would also be nice. I think those who are using the BMW 3 series as their template are on the right track as I seem to recall hearing that this is supposed to be a 3 series competitor.

My real concern is whether Tesla is going to be able to stay in business long enough to actually deliver all of those cars. They are playing a dangerous game with the money they are losing each quarter as all it could take is a string of some bad news to spook the investors away.

 

[FlatSix911]

Hello everyone! New to TMC and am a Model 3 reservation holder. Below is a link to a pricing template I put together for the M3. Feel free to try it out. The option costs loaded into the tool are based on my opinion. They could end up higher or lower, however I feel they are close to what we will see come M3 design studio.
My tool assumes a few things:
* Most of the S & X options will be available for the 3.
* options in green will scale down in cost by ~20%(adjustable in tool). All other options will stay in line with M-S/X costs.
* taxes & other fees are based on the state of TX( adjustable in the tool).
* there will be two battery upg options. List costs are my opinion
* super charging costs are not factored in

Everything in the tool is adjustable; toggle options in or out and overall cost will update. You can also load your own list costs on page 2(option cost builder) or play with the overall discounting of options - page 2(Input in green).

MT's M3 cost template

My goal is to help people understand what they are getting into with the 3 and to prepare accordingly. I am all about hoping for the best, but planning for the worst....At the end of the day I truly believe Tesla will deliver an incredible EV for $35k. However my gut tells me Tesla will make little, if any, margin selling a base version. So something has to give....

Thanks!
MT

Well done!

 

[Audrey]

care to share it? i'd like to see it and build upon.

It's much like what others have already shared. If it were insightful I would share, but it's redundant.