Have you lost faith in Tesla?

[dachshund]

That’s a misleading stat.
BYD sells half the number of EVs at Tesla and the rest are hybrids. That’s basically the same as saying GM shipped more total vehicles than Tesla, it’s irrelevant. VW also have zero chance of selling more than Tesla in 2024, where did you find that one?

The Semi is early days but has literally no competition for the range it has. Tesla have also stated they believe the minimum viable range is >250 miles and they’re not going to ship a vehicle with poor range, nor should they, that’s a compromise. Selling cheap crap products that don’t convert people from their ICE vehicles or ends up turning them off from EVs because of the limitation of a small battery isn’t a strategy, it’s a crutch

I'm rooting for the semi, obviously. The range, it pays for itself in a couple of years based on diesel costs. And that acceleration on a grade, wow. I don't get the cybertruck, though, that one seems like an idea gone wrong.

I hope VW fixes this, but I've read that the software is awful. It makes me wonder about the Audi EVs since they use the same platform. Again, Tesla with all its warts is still ahead of the game, in my opinion.

My theory is that Tesla won't open the charging network as long as there's any threat to demand.

 

[Zilla91]

My theory is that Tesla won't open the charging network as long as there's any threat to demand.

They already have in Europe (this is a UK thread)

 

[Billbrown1982]

Not nearly as much as i've lost faith in this forum lately.

 

[2020M3SR]

Nah, it’s definitely zero.

My confidence here comes from working for an organisation that supplies multiple car brands, including both VW and Tesla, as well as other legacy and EV start-ups.

VWs internal software division has collapsed under the weight of Diess‘ strategy of hiring all the engineers to throw at the problem, trouble is that doesn’t fix anything, it often makes it worse.

Blume, the new CEO, seems to have taken further decisions that will slow them down and they’ve already announced that flagship models originally due as early as next year, are getting delayed to 2027. The Wolfsburg plant redevelopment is also running behind schedule and won’t be ramped even for the iD3 for another 2 year and that’s before their even get to their Trinity project which was supposed, by their own admission, to be the platform that enabled them to start to catch Tesla both in production and software, but that was already delayed to 2028 and now 2030 is being talked about as a realistic date.

VW could have all the factories in the world, but they still couldn’t flip them to EV fast enough because they don’t have the capability to keep up with the software side to support the launch of more vehicles and that is crippling them.

It’s honestly like it’s 2007 and we’re watching Nokia try to counter the iPhone all over again, that time with the grossly inadequate Symbian platform vs. iOS, which like VW‘s platform today, was somewhat unique to each device and as a result slowed their overall pace of development dramatically because they failed to simplify their lineup. History is repeating. VW are working on Cariad E3 2.0 but they’re saying it’s going to take 5 years to build this new OS, which is insane in software years. they’re only developing 10% of the software in-house today and targeting 60% by 2025. E3 2.0 will be outdated before it launches.

All of this is laid bare on their own website in the form of press releases and updates on progress. So I remain absolutely confident they have zero chance of shipping more EVs than Tesla next year this year or any year just based on software alone, let alone the other supply chain challenges they have.

Really good post. In the mobile phone comparison, Tesla are Nokia, ie, the 1st and biggest in the EV market/handset market before anyone else so I'm not sure the Nokia apple comparison works here! Apple came after Nokia and ate Nokia's lunch remember.

A lot is said about software and clearly people like us (who's been driving Teslas for a while) can get along with touchscreen no problems but at the same time, I would love more buttons. That's actually something that might get me into a different vehicle.

It's a kind of USP for Tesla but does that also handicap them at some point too? I don't really know.

 

[Zilla91]

A lot is said about software and clearly people like us (who's been driving Teslas for a while) can get along with touchscreen no problems but at the same time, I would love more buttons. That's actually something that might get me into a different vehicle.

100% BMW’s iDrive is vastly superior to the Tesla system because it gives you the option to operate it using actual buttons (and a voice control system that actually works).

 

[boombap]

Really good post. In the mobile phone comparison, Tesla are Nokia, ie, the 1st and biggest in the EV market/handset market before anyone else so I'm not sure the Nokia apple comparison works here! Apple came after Nokia and ate Nokia's lunch remember.

A lot is said about software and clearly people like us (who's been driving Teslas for a while) can get along with touchscreen no problems but at the same time, I would love more buttons. That's actually something that might get me into a different vehicle.

It's a kind of USP for Tesla but does that also handicap them at some point too? I don't really know.

How do you figure Tesla are Nokia?
Not sure how that was your takeaway, Quite the opposite.
Apple wasn’t the first smartphone maker, nor are Tesla the first EV maker, both GM and Nissan beat them to it.

At the time Nokia had been making dumb phones (ICE cars in the analogy) for decades and were considered experts. They then switched to making “smartphones” or EVs in this analogy which were a little smarter than the candy bar models but still tied to that old paragdim. Apple came in with a revolutionary UI, touch screens instead of soft buttons that did whatever the text above them on the screen said they did in that particular app and changed the game. Likewise Tesla, no start button, one pedal driving, no keys, walk away lock, supercharger network etc. revolutionary user experience that beats the competition hands down.

Tesla is Apple in this scenario, they don’t have a century of business experience or a long history of manufacturing vehicles, but have landed out of nowhere with a better product than all of the other manufacturers and leapfrogged them in technology so far that it’s impossible for the competition to catch up no matter how much they scramble.

iPhone came in with desktop class mobile apps that blew the legacy manufacturers out of the water, and they were so arrogant they didn’t believe a Silicon Valley upstart like Apple (or Tesla) could possibly do better, prompting comments like “We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” —Palm CEO Ed Colligan, November 16, 2006 or “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” — Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer, April 29, 2007. We’re seeing the same level of arrogance amongst the ICE makers today.

We saw car companies saying the exact same thing about Tesla: “They will never make money on the Model 3 because the cost is way too high. He’s got 9,000 people in that assembly plant producing less than 150,000 cars a year. The whole thing just doesn’t compute. It’s an automobile company that is headed for the graveyard,” Former GM CEO, George Lutz - September 18, 2018.

The roadster was the Newton, expensive and little sold. The S/X we’re the iPod, great product in an exciting new package. The Model 3 was the original iPhone, revolutionary but not practical for everyone. now we’re are the stage of the Model Y, which is the iPhone 3G, hugely practical, mass market, able to scale production with learnings of what has come before, huge demand.

Everything else is Android. Quite literally in some cases like Polestar. But almost every other EV maker is still using the same common parts from Bosch and Honeywell like they have for decades which is why most vehicles UIs look pretty similar because 90% of the hardware and software smarts are outsourced. This is also the direct reason why VW for example have so much trouble with OTA updates because they didn’t write the firmware for all these screens and other third party systems in their vehicles and why all but those who are running their own vehicle OS on their own hardware will always be several steps behind.

 

[2020M3SR]

100% BMW’s iDrive is vastly superior to the Tesla system because it gives you the option to operate it using actual buttons (and a voice control system that actually works).

Its really good, and idrive is pretty much loved across the board when it comes to motoring journalists.

If anyone hasn't seen BMW augmented reality software for sat nav, it's fabulous. Front camera comes onto the screen when it's time to make a turn, and moving arrows pop up and direct you where to go.

Then you have heat pad technology, which warms the driver area when it's cold, meaning you don't need to heat the whole cabin.

Nobody is standing still and going back to the iPhone discussion, it's just not a credible parallel to draw. The primary goal in automotive is moving people from A to B. It's a physical task and software/tech is a bolt on, rather than the primary objective.

If Tesla accomplish the primary task via FSD, it's a game changer but until then, in car tech is just a bolt on feature. Some do it better than others. There is no leader.

There is a strong argument to say idrive is better tech than Tesla, and vice versa. It's all about personal preference. Buttons, some buttons, hardly any buttons.

If I was offered a free car, I would go with BMW. If I had to pay, not so sure. Price matters and BMW, while great, are too expensive right now IMO.

Like all car purchases since forever, it's all about what you want from a car, what is your budget and what car ticks most of your boxes. I've yet to buy a car in my entire life that ticks all the boxes and I likely never will.

Most of us want better noise insulation on our Teslas, and more buttons. We can't have it. I want BMW to be cheaper. I can't have it. I want VW IDs to have a more premium cabin. I can't have it.

If I want the best phone, it's gonna cost me a few hundred extra ££. If I want the best car (for me, top of the range BMW iX) it's gonna cost tens of thousands of extra ££. That's why phone/car comparisons are just not worth doing.

 

[2020M3SR]

How do you figure Tesla are Nokia?
Not sure how that was your takeaway, Quite the opposite.
Apple wasn’t the first smartphone maker, nor are Tesla the first EV maker, both GM and Nissan beat them to it.

At the time Nokia had been making dumb phones (ICE cars in the analogy) for decades and were considered experts. They then switched to making “smartphones” or EVs in this analogy which were a little smarter than the candy bar models but still tied to that old paragdim. Apple came in with a revolutionary UI, touch screens instead of soft buttons that did whatever the text above them on the screen said they did in that particular app and changed the game. Likewise Tesla, no start button, one pedal driving, no keys, walk away lock, supercharger network etc. revolutionary user experience that beats the competition hands down.

Tesla is Apple in this scenario, they don’t have a century of business experience or a long history of manufacturing vehicles, but have landed out of nowhere with a better product than all of the other manufacturers and leapfrogged them in technology so far that it’s impossible for the competition to catch up no matter how much they scramble.

iPhone came in with desktop class mobile apps that blew the legacy manufacturers out of the water, and they were so arrogant they didn’t believe a Silicon Valley upstart like Apple (or Tesla) could possibly do better, prompting comments like “We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” —Palm CEO Ed Colligan, November 16, 2006 or “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” — Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer, April 29, 2007. We’re seeing the same level of arrogance amongst the ICE makers today.

We saw car companies saying the exact same thing about Tesla: “They will never make money on the Model 3 because the cost is way too high. He’s got 9,000 people in that assembly plant producing less than 150,000 cars a year. The whole thing just doesn’t compute. It’s an automobile company that is headed for the graveyard,” Former GM CEO, George Lutz - September 18, 2018.

The roadster was the Newton, expensive and little sold. The S/X we’re the iPod, great product in an exciting new package. The Model 3 was the original iPhone, revolutionary but not practical for everyone. now we’re are the stage of the Model Y, which is the iPhone 3G, hugely practical, mass market, able to scale production with learnings of what has come before, huge demand.

Everything else is Android. Quite literally in some cases like Polestar. But every other EV maker is still using the same common parts from Bosch and Honeywell like they have for decades which is why most vehicles UIs look pretty similar because 90% of the hardware and software smarts are outsourced. This is also the direct reason why VW for example have so much trouble with OTA updates because they didn’t write the firmware for all these screens and other third party systems in their vehicles and why all but those who are running their own vehicle OS on their own hardware will always be several steps behind.

See my other post. Primary function of a car is physically moving people from A to B

It's pointless looking at iPhone to find a parallel. Apple hit the big time with iTunes, not the iPhone. Sony Walkman phone was the 1st proper smartphone (actually, was an email phone way before that from someone else but not worth talking about) and iPhone success was in no small part due to iTunes. Two devices in one (phone and music player) was a game changer.

Apple absolutely needed to get the iPhone to market to protect iTunes from Sony, amongst others.

So it's foolish to even look at the iPhone as a product without the iTunes marriage.

Tesla have no iTunes and iTunes is what put Apple on the map.

 

[boombap]

See my other post. Primary function of a car is physically moving people from A to B

It's pointless looking at iPhone to find a parallel. Apple hit the big time with iTunes, not the iPhone. Sony Walkman phone was the 1st proper smartphone (actually, was an email phone way before that from someone else but not worth talking about) and iPhone success was in no small part due to iTunes. Two devices in one (phone and music player) was a game changer.

Apple absolutely needed to get the iPhone to market to protect iTunes from Sony, amongst others.

So it's foolish to even look at the iPhone as a product without the iTunes marriage.

Tesla have no iTunes and iTunes is what put Apple on the map.

The Supercharger network is iTunes for Tesla.

No analogy is perfect and there are a lot of differences between the two, but the ease of buying music vs Limewire and Napster meant people happily went to pay instead of illegally downloading when it was convenient. Likewise not playing pot-luck with is the charger working and the ease of use is a similar moat.

The Apple comparison isn‘t an exact one but it’s the most recent and most useful that people can understand.

 

[Zilla91]

Tesla really aren’t Apple and anyone who thinks that is kidding themselves

 

[Whyone]

Apple "it just works"

Tesla "it sort of works most of the time but random stuff keeps not working"

 

[boombap]

Tesla really aren’t Apple and anyone who thinks that is kidding themselves

They will be the most valuable company in the world by the end of the decade. I’d say I’d put money on that, but I already have in the stock, got a free car out of it, and am still up on my investment even after the most recent bubble.

Look forward to seeing which of us is right.

 

[Vidyutyaan]

100% BMW’s iDrive is vastly superior to the Tesla system because it gives you the option to operate it using actual buttons (and a voice control system that actually works).

Tried to locate a nearby charging station in a BMW iX recently and the menu system is an absolute nightmare!
I’d have to disagree that it is better from an intuitiveness or usability perspective.

Some features are cool, like the augmented reality nav, but overall I feel the UI is glitzy form and poor function.

 

[Zilla91]

Apple "it just works"

Tesla "it sort of works most of the time but random stuff keeps not working"

Not just that but Apple products are seen as high quality and premium.

They’re also quality pieces of kit, when you buy a MacBook Pro you know it’ll work perfectly well even after a decade.

They will be the most valuable company in the world by the end of the decade. I’d say I’d put money on that, but I already have in the stock, got a free car out of it, and am still up on my investment even after the most recent bubble.

Look forward to seeing which of us is right.

They won’t looking at how far the stock has dropped in the last 12 months.

This when other manufacturers are still struggling to deliver cars because of the chip shortage backlog. Imagine how much worse it would be if they were firing on all cylinders.

 

[Zilla91]

Tried to locate a nearby charging station in a BMW iX recently and the menu system is an absolute nightmare!
I’d have to disagree that it is better from an intuitiveness or usability perspective.

Some features are cool, like the augmented reality nav, but overall I feel the UI is glitzy form and poor function.

In your opinion. Many others disagree.

How long have you had the car? Did you bother reading the manual to work out how it works?

When I test drive the i4 I put in a far away destination in the sat nav and it suggested charging stops just like how the Tesla does

 

[boombap]

They won’t looking at how far the stock has dropped in the last 12 months.

This when other manufacturers are still struggling to deliver cars because of the chip shortage backlog. Imagine how much worse it would be if they were firing on all cylinders.

The stock market is a terrible way to predict future company performance. You could have said the exact same thing about Apple shortly before they started printing more money than they could spend. The stock price has precisely nothing to do with how well the company is executing In the short term.

There’s no point imagining competitors firing on all cylinders because for all the reasons I went in to above about software, they can’t. Tesla just rewrote their software to eliminate the need for the parts they couldn’t get, while everyone else had to stop production.

 

[ElectricIAC]

100% BMW’s iDrive is vastly superior to the Tesla system because it gives you the option to operate it using actual buttons (and a voice control system that actually works).

Not iD8

 

[Vidyutyaan]

In your opinion. Many others disagree.

How long have you had the car? Did you bother reading the manual to work out how it works?

I took your suggestion and looked it up. Here is BMW’s official guide on how to do it.
By my count there are 4 steps to get to actually inputting a destination.

In a Tesla the destination search box is right there on the main screen.

It is my opinion that BMW could learn a thing or two about UI, but of course you are welcome to yours…

 

[Js1977]

Apple wasn’t the first smartphone maker, nor are Tesla the first EV maker, both GM and Nissan beat them to it.

Henry Ford's wife used to have an EV (cant remember the name right now)...ironically the electric motor killed the EV back then.

See my other post. Primary function of a car is physically moving people from A to B

Primary function function of a mobile phone was to make and receive calls...I dont think many people use it for that these days

The Apple comparison isn‘t an exact one but it’s the most recent and most useful that people can understand.

I agree.

Tesla really aren’t Apple and anyone who thinks that is kidding themselves

This is a fact.

Not just that but Apple products are seen as high quality and premium.

They’re also quality pieces of kit, when you buy a MacBook Pro you know it’ll work perfectly well even after a decade.

I agree and have also experienced this. We are biased from a good experience.

In your opinion. Many others disagree.

Same response could apply here surely.

 

[Pants]

The stock market is a terrible way to predict future company performance. You could have said the exact same thing about Apple shortly before they started printing more money than they could spend. The stock price has precisely nothing to do with how well the company is executing In the short term.

There’s no point imagining competitors firing on all cylinders because for all the reasons I went in to above about software, they can’t. Tesla just rewrote their software to eliminate the need for the parts they couldn’t get, while everyone else had to stop production.

That’s not what people say when the stock price is high, but the line they take when the stock crashes