I doubt āzeroā chance, but I take your point.
But remember VW have been making cars for a very long time. Granted, theyāve been caught with their pants down with the transition to electric power trains but I donāt think theyāll be lagging for a very long period of time.
Nah, itās definitely zero.
My confidence here comes from working for an organisation that supplies multiple car brands, including both VW and Tesla, as well as other legacy and EV start-ups.
VWs internal software division has collapsed under the weight of Diessā strategy of hiring all the engineers to throw at the problem, trouble is that doesnāt fix anything, it often makes it worse.
Blume, the new CEO, seems to have taken further decisions that will slow them down and theyāve already announced that flagship models originally due as early as next year, are getting delayed to 2027. The Wolfsburg plant redevelopment is also running behind schedule and wonāt be ramped even for the iD3 for another 2 year and thatās before their even get to their Trinity project which was supposed, by their own admission, to be the platform that enabled them to start to catch Tesla both in production and software, but that was already delayed to 2028 and now 2030 is being talked about as a realistic date.
VW could have all the factories in the world, but they still couldnāt flip them to EV fast enough because they donāt have the capability to keep up with the software side to support the launch of more vehicles and that is crippling them.
Itās honestly like itās 2007 and weāre watching Nokia try to counter the iPhone all over again, that time with the grossly inadequate Symbian platform vs. iOS, which like VWās platform today, was somewhat unique to each device and as a result slowed their overall pace of development dramatically because they failed to simplify their lineup. History is repeating. VW are working on Cariad E3 2.0 but theyāre saying itās going to take 5 years to build this new OS, which is insane in software years. theyāre only developing 10% of the software in-house today and targeting 60% by 2025. E3 2.0 will be outdated before it launches.
All of this is laid bare on their own website in the form of press releases and updates on progress. So I remain absolutely confident they have zero chance of shipping more EVs than Tesla
next year this year or any year just based on software alone, let alone the other supply chain challenges they have.