Yeah, but that thing will run King's Quest like a champ.
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Help me confirm the retrofit-ability of Autopilot 2.0 on the Model X
- Thread starter FredLambert
- Start date
Some of the only "against my view" replies that I can understand and appreciate. Almost all my points are aimed at unpredicted deprecation.
And that concept is so new to me because (I really hate deprecation) So I at least would like to make it a set amount and predictable with a lease. But with a $18,500 up front cash swing leasing is not an option for me.
Is it impossible to lease a Tesla in Georgia?
With other car makers I would get a discount on a 16 if 17 will get redesigned or new features making it more "fair" or predictable. With people missing major changes by days and paying the same it is just a new concept that I am trying to grasp.
I'm at peace with this and honestly enjoy discussion the "other side" of the argument even though it offends some on here. So I can back off. I just do not understand why tesla can not change programs in let's say Georgia to make leasing at least more palatable (lower down payment requirement). My intentional gut reaction was they don't want you to lease and take on any risk of any downside/unpredictable deprecation. I'm sure tesla (car/computer) has much more people buying then leasing compared to other $100k cars... Which seems odd. (sorry no facts to back this up other than observations on here).
Why? People just want to own from day one with new stuff coming out all the time? Bc a lease you could always pay the residual at end and own it. (It's just another way to finance a car with some downside protection - protection that you pay for).
Seems like tesla looks out for tesla, and early adopters look out for tesla. I'm excited about my car and like analyzing decisions. That is entire reason for my comments.
Entire other point but this "wait for a tesla" is arguably more fun and attaches you more to the car than just picking it up off the lot one day. I enjoy it.
Sorry for the typos and errors (all on an iPhone).
I totally agree with this. I've noticed it plenty of times in my years here. I've said that it kind of kills buyer's remorse because the timeframe for remorse happens before you get the car, and then once you get it, you've been amped for it and you get to enjoy it remorse-free. I'm probably oversimplifying that, but it's how it feels to me.
Electrek reported more than what was found through the source code. We reported about the unbundling plan that will see the price of the S/X go down by $2k.
Sorry, Fred. I don't think my post said anything about your excellent coverage, just the timing.
Was I incorrect in stating that it was reported here first? I didn't see it on Electrek until well after we'd been chatting about it here, but that could have been my oversight. If so, let me know and I'll apologize properly for misinforming.
Nothing changed as far as I know, but I'd like to clarify a few things that some people here seems to be getting wrong - though it might be on me if I wasn't clear enough.
First off, there's a clear distinction between what was announced Sunday, which is Autopilot under v8.0 of Tesla's software, and "Autopilot 2.0", which generally refers to a hardware upgrade with new sensors and computing power.
Secondly, I've never said that there were new sensors in new cars going in production - maybe there are, but I didn't say that. I said that they were new wiring harnesses for the new sensors going into the Model S, like they already are in the Model X since the start of production (for the camera at least - like I said as the original goal of this thread, I'd like more data points for the radars but I can confirm that some already have the harnesses for more radar antennas).
I hope that's clear?
Sorry, Fred. I don't think my post said anything about your excellent coverage, just the timing.
Was I incorrect in stating that it was reported here first? I didn't see it on Electrek until well after we'd been chatting about it here, but that could have been my oversight. If so, let me know and I'll apologize properly for misinforming.
I didn't see it first, but it might have been reported here first. Someone ping me and I looked into my own 'MyTesla' page, but that doesn't mean it wasn't reported here first.
All I meant to say with my previous post is that not all info came from the source code. After Tesla refused to officially comment despite the leak, we tap into some sources and got solid info about the program, which apparently has been long in the making. Most of the marketing for it is done, sources are not sure what is the holdup, but it's a difficult program to implement because of regulations and energy costs vary widely in each region Tesla operates in.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
Thanks @FredLambert but enough of history, and who said what and when.
What the latest from your sources on AP2.0 hardware?
What the latest from your sources on AP2.0 hardware?
Canuck
Well-Known Member
No offence taken by me, if this comment is directed at me. I can be a little harsh in my replies, so sorry if I offended you. It's just my nature although that's probably a poor excuse.
You're a great person to debate with since you present good arguments in a respectful, well-reasoned manner. We may not agree, but that's part of the fun of posting here. It would sure be boring if we all agreed.
I hope you get a Tesla when the timing is right for you. But even if new things come out the day after you get yours, you should know that I still look forward every day to driving my non-AP, large frunk, 80 amp "Classic" Model S. I can't see how any Tesla can ever get "old". I'd love to own a Roadster!
technomation
Member
How about clarifying this:
Tesla Autopilot 2.0: next gen Autopilot powered by more radar, new triple camera, some equipment already in production
Never said anything "is going into production"? Clear distinction (between v8 and AP 2.0)? In hindsight we all know that v8 is not related to AP 2.0. However, surely you can understand why your stating "some equipment already in production" might've made some think that new hardware would or could be part of the v8 release. Whether or not the equipment was sensors was lost in the excitement of your announcement, as witnessed by multiple citations of your Aug 11 blog in several threads in this forum, and propagated in other outside blogposts during the past month.
This statement gave me the feeling that Tesla was future-proofing new production going forward, so that new purchasers would not be marooned on the previous hardware generation. I was sure to wait a couple weeks after Aug 11 before I ordered my MS after reading:
"Additionally, the system will feature a new front-facing triple camera system for which we are told Tesla started installing new housing in the Model S production this week" [August 11]
When is it coming?
"It’s already here. Well, sort of. The new sensors have yet to be introduced in production vehicles, but everything points toward a release fairly soon. Several components have already been introduced in the production cars, like wiring harnesses and as previously mentioned, the housing for the triple camera system on the rearview mirror cutout."
In fairness--but also in retrospect--we can see how this statement late in your blog is hedging your previous statements, well, sort of. Your're still giving evidence--wiring harnesses, housing for tri-camera--that your more assertive statements above are true. The impressive diagram that you somehow obtained lent even more credibility to your statements that Autopilot 2.0 is imminent.
As is now the consensus of multiple threads on this forum, most of the points you made are unsubstantiated, and the opinion now is that AP 2.0, even the hardware stubbed out before the software, is going to happen much later than your blog implies.
Don't get me wrong. I enjoy reading your well-written blogs, and especially the information that you're getting that none of us is privy to. However, in the future, I hope you do a little more fact-checking with caveats on certainty. Reliability trumps sensationalism when you're trying to make up your mind when to buy a $100K+ vehicle.
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krazineurons
krazineurons
Thanks for the response Fred!
You also mentioned a triple facing camera harness going to the S, where as X only has dual facing harness that too from the beginning. Don't think we have seen any S with the new harness, have we?
ccutrer
Active Member
I think you're reading too much into Fred's article. I read it right when it came out, and my impression was that they'll be making minor changes to production over a several month period in order to accommodate AP 2.0, starting with wiring harnesses, and likely small internal changes to the frame to accomodate mounting more sensors. The only thing that would be visible at first would be a different housing (which yes, we're still waiting for). As for double/triple camera - my interpretation is that when the X came out, they thought they would be going to a double camera. Then the whole MobilEye fallout, and plans changed. Which in my mind says that yes, they would like to make it retrofittable, but in reality they just can't know what the hardware will be until it's shipping. All of it.
And no, I've never been confused on the difference between software 8.0 and AP 2.0 - Elon has said that there's still lots they could do in software with current hardware - I was dubious of this assertion, but he has (at least it looks like he will) pull[ed] through with software 8.0.
Really, you shouldn't be basing car buying decisions on rumors. Sometimes they'll be true, sometimes they won't. When I placed my order (the first week of April), I was agonizing over the specter of a 100kWh battery, and AP2.0. 5 months later the 100kWh came true, but in a fashion that I wouldn't have gotten it anyway. And AP2.0 is still whispers and shadows. I'm sure eventually both will become a reality (100 without performance and ludicrous; ap2.0), but I'll have had my car for a good long time at that point. With zero regrets. Those things may make the car a little bit better, but it's already the most amazing car in the world.
Rumors, rumors, speculation, speculation. There is nothing to report here other than making guesses. I find it highly doubtful that there will be a retrofit available for several reasons. 1. No retrofit before for autopilot. When the AP hardware was first released in 2014, the pre-AP cars were not offered a retrofit. 2. Processing power--Any retrofit would not only need the new cameras and the new radars, but also new computer hardware to be able to process the additional data. 3. Service center capacity--the service centers are already filling up quickly with cars and to add a complicated retrofit like this doesn't seem like a good strategic decision for service. 4. No retrofit gives existing customers another reason to upgrade their whole car.
Even in the unlikely scenario that a retrofit does become available, expect it to be very expensive. Some time after parking sensors were added, Tesla offered a retrofit but it was really expensive--something like $5-7k. AP 2.0 is even more hardware than just sensors in the bumpers.
Even in the unlikely scenario that a retrofit does become available, expect it to be very expensive. Some time after parking sensors were added, Tesla offered a retrofit but it was really expensive--something like $5-7k. AP 2.0 is even more hardware than just sensors in the bumpers.
I'm in total agreement with you on all 4 points. However, how is this for wishful thinking:
1.) Tesla has planned for AP2.0 and included an easy upgrade path (e.g. Adding existing wiring harnesses, and a vacant camera location)
2.) What if AP2.0 came with it's own CPU for data processing, which would be totally separate from what's already installed.
3.) I would expect this to be a service offered only to recent customers (not a long-term service).
4.) There is a benefit to keeping existing customers happy, or at least giving them an (expensive) option to upgrade to AP2.0
1st time on the forums in a week or so. Very interesting thread, I'm willing to do some due diligence to help us all understand what's going on. I don't mind having my bumpers removed by a mechanic to see what's underneath. I'll look into this asap, as long as it's not crazy expensive or puts the bumpers at risk than I will do it, take some pics etc. @FredLambert check out my PM, help me understand what exactly I'm looking for. Hopefully I'll get some good info for us
Retrofit aside for a minute. For those of you who think Tesla is in no hurry to introduce second generation AP hardware, I would consider reading this article I published this afternoon: Tesla responds to Mobileye’s comments on Autopilot, confirms new in-house ‘Tesla Vision’ product
Tesla certainly doesn't seem afraid to see Mobileye discontinue the EyeQ3 anymore.
It doesn't mean the entire new suite since it could still happen gradually....
Tesla certainly doesn't seem afraid to see Mobileye discontinue the EyeQ3 anymore.
It doesn't mean the entire new suite since it could still happen gradually....
.....
nothing against you to me this looks like " hey i wrote this click here so i get traffic" i like what you do but it was the 1st thing that came to mind when i see it was your own article
nothing against you to me this looks like " hey i wrote this click here so i get traffic" i like what you do but it was the 1st thing that came to mind when i see it was your own article
I said it was my article in the comment. I thought it was relevant to this thread considering several people speculated that tesla probably will not release new AP hardware soon.
Also, if you look at my posting history on TMC, I really don't spam my content at all. I rarely post really. I appreciate when people share my content here, but TMC (like most discussion forums) is not really a great driver of traffic.
3Victoria
Active Member
Thanks Fred for your articles, they have been of consistent quality. I am biased in that I want AP2 hardware in my Model 3, so any slippage on timing makes that dream less likely. Keep up the good work.