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I wish that CO would offer a credit towards the cost of a charging station or at the very least the electric companies should.
fluxemag
Member
Merrill
Merrill
This really depends on how much of a rush you are in to get from point A to point B, I'm retired and a few extra stops is not a big deal.
fluxemag
Member
I'm going with black paint and the base model battery. Premium package is up for debate, maybe with the new Oregon rebate will go towards that. I had a MS 40 for about 3 years, and the ~120 mile range was fine so long as the destination had charging. Over 200 miles will be more than enough to get me around Oregon and Washington.
I do see a few drawbacks. The Model S was a handful in snow with RWD, and I expect the Model 3 to be the same. I have some 19" wheels that will fit the Model 3, so I can throw snow tires on the Aero wheels when it's time to hit the slopes. Pretty bummed the Model 3 isn't a hatchback though.
I do see a few drawbacks. The Model S was a handful in snow with RWD, and I expect the Model 3 to be the same. I have some 19" wheels that will fit the Model 3, so I can throw snow tires on the Aero wheels when it's time to hit the slopes. Pretty bummed the Model 3 isn't a hatchback though.
A big question I'm asking myself is how I'll actually be using my M3 in the future since that will affect which options I should prioritize over others.
In many ways, I see my M3 being a stepping stone into the future and the real question is how big of a first step do I want to (or can afford to) take before I take my second step (the car I buy after my M3).
In the future, nearly all cars will be EV rather than ICE. And when I think about it, there is a reasonable chance that my current ICE cars may be my last.
EV technology, along with assisted and full self driving technology, is developing pretty rapidly and will probably continue to do so in the next 10 - 20+ years. This is in contrast to ICE cars which have fundamentally changed very little since I've been driving (30+ years) and the decades before that.
With the ICE cars I've had in the past, I would drive them for 200,000+ miles over 10+ years each and never really felt I was "behind the curve" compared to newer cars. Features such as airbags, computerized engines, fancier radios with crappy GPS (compared to my phone) and luxury bells and whistles in newer cars never really made me very envious, especially since they resulted in cars that were much more expensive.
However, I have this nagging feeling that in 5 years EV (and EAP/FSD) technology will be making big strides forward and many of the current new cars will soon be very outdated as far as new features are concerned.
I think Tesla has done a great job by including EAP/FSD hardware in all of their new cars regardless of whether you pay to enable it or not, and this goes a long way towards future-proofing their cars. Same for their use of the touchscreen over physical buttons. But I still can't avoid the nagging feeling that in 10 years, the difference between my M3 and the new cars available at that time will be a bit like the difference between a iPhone 7 and a 10-year old flip phone. I'm probably being a bit overly concerned about how quickly things will change, but then again, maybe not. I do think we are entering a tipping point with the release of the M3 and once things start changing, they may change more quickly than anyone (except maybe Elon) expects.
If I was confident that I'd be keeping my M3 for 10+ years (possibly handing it over to one my kids when they are ready to drive), then I'd be more inclined to pay for the larger battery and other upgrades now since I'd get more value out of them over a longer period of time.
$60K (for all options) averaged over 10 years is $6K/year (assuming zero trade-in value in 10 years)
$40K (for Premium upgrade or maybe EAP) averaged over 10 years is $4K/year (assuming zero trade-in value in 10 years)
But if it seems more likely that in 10 years I'll be looking at the M3 as a dangerous old clunker compared to the cars available in 10 years, then it seems more prudent to save money by skipping most of the extras now (larger battery and possibly the Premium interior upgrade) and then trading it in on something newer in 5 years. Then again, the rapid evolution of newer models might also cause the current M3's to lose their value more quickly if better models are available for the same or less money.
$60K (for all options) averaged over 5 years is $12K/year, but if the trade-in value is 20% after 5 years, then it's closer to $9.6K/year.
$40K (for Premium upgrade or maybe EAP) averaged over 5 years is $8K/year (or $6.4K/year with 20% trade-in value).
So one of the questions I have to answer for myself is whether I think the M3 could be a "10-year car" or a "5-year car" for me.
As I think about it now, I'm not really expecting any major hardware changes in the next 5 years other than some evolutionary enhancements (such as larger batteries for the same price). However, in 10 years, and especially once FSD is fully realized, then I think we may be in store for some MAJOR changes in what is available to meet our transportation needs (I'm thinking FSD RV's that can drive retired people around the country safely and vans that let you work and play while commuting to work or going on family vacations).
In many ways, I see my M3 being a stepping stone into the future and the real question is how big of a first step do I want to (or can afford to) take before I take my second step (the car I buy after my M3).
In the future, nearly all cars will be EV rather than ICE. And when I think about it, there is a reasonable chance that my current ICE cars may be my last.
EV technology, along with assisted and full self driving technology, is developing pretty rapidly and will probably continue to do so in the next 10 - 20+ years. This is in contrast to ICE cars which have fundamentally changed very little since I've been driving (30+ years) and the decades before that.
With the ICE cars I've had in the past, I would drive them for 200,000+ miles over 10+ years each and never really felt I was "behind the curve" compared to newer cars. Features such as airbags, computerized engines, fancier radios with crappy GPS (compared to my phone) and luxury bells and whistles in newer cars never really made me very envious, especially since they resulted in cars that were much more expensive.
However, I have this nagging feeling that in 5 years EV (and EAP/FSD) technology will be making big strides forward and many of the current new cars will soon be very outdated as far as new features are concerned.
I think Tesla has done a great job by including EAP/FSD hardware in all of their new cars regardless of whether you pay to enable it or not, and this goes a long way towards future-proofing their cars. Same for their use of the touchscreen over physical buttons. But I still can't avoid the nagging feeling that in 10 years, the difference between my M3 and the new cars available at that time will be a bit like the difference between a iPhone 7 and a 10-year old flip phone. I'm probably being a bit overly concerned about how quickly things will change, but then again, maybe not. I do think we are entering a tipping point with the release of the M3 and once things start changing, they may change more quickly than anyone (except maybe Elon) expects.
If I was confident that I'd be keeping my M3 for 10+ years (possibly handing it over to one my kids when they are ready to drive), then I'd be more inclined to pay for the larger battery and other upgrades now since I'd get more value out of them over a longer period of time.
$60K (for all options) averaged over 10 years is $6K/year (assuming zero trade-in value in 10 years)
$40K (for Premium upgrade or maybe EAP) averaged over 10 years is $4K/year (assuming zero trade-in value in 10 years)
But if it seems more likely that in 10 years I'll be looking at the M3 as a dangerous old clunker compared to the cars available in 10 years, then it seems more prudent to save money by skipping most of the extras now (larger battery and possibly the Premium interior upgrade) and then trading it in on something newer in 5 years. Then again, the rapid evolution of newer models might also cause the current M3's to lose their value more quickly if better models are available for the same or less money.
$60K (for all options) averaged over 5 years is $12K/year, but if the trade-in value is 20% after 5 years, then it's closer to $9.6K/year.
$40K (for Premium upgrade or maybe EAP) averaged over 5 years is $8K/year (or $6.4K/year with 20% trade-in value).
So one of the questions I have to answer for myself is whether I think the M3 could be a "10-year car" or a "5-year car" for me.
As I think about it now, I'm not really expecting any major hardware changes in the next 5 years other than some evolutionary enhancements (such as larger batteries for the same price). However, in 10 years, and especially once FSD is fully realized, then I think we may be in store for some MAJOR changes in what is available to meet our transportation needs (I'm thinking FSD RV's that can drive retired people around the country safely and vans that let you work and play while commuting to work or going on family vacations).
Something to consider... unlike smartphones that become almost obsolete after a couple of years, Tesla makes OTA updates. The hardware/mechanics on the car will take much longer to become obsolete. I saw a headline a few days ago about other EVs installing big touch screens and having OTA software updates (likely because they need this now in order not to fall too far behind Tesla). So, if you're concerned about the model 3 becoming obsolete after five years, I think, if for any reason, it might be because of battery cost more than anything.
Go ahead. Buy the larger battery and premium upgrade. You can keep it for ten years like you always do and be fine.
In 10 years, your 2017/2018 Model 3 may be a cash cow that's nearly completely depreciated yet still bringing serious ride share / courier / Uber income. It may also well have a 400 mile el cheapo aftermarket hypercharging battery in it, so you can get more commercial coverage per day.
Will by then self-driving cars come with a carton of milk, or totally unobtaibale due to a global economic crisis, crippling inflation and subsequent industrial standstill? Having a beat up Model 3 could be the difference between having a house to sleep in after a good meal, or sleep in the car. Which no-one can buy from you (devastating road tax?) to go buy yourself some groceries.
If you believe in a more flexible policy on aftermarket work on Teslas, the bare version would be the smartest to buy.
Will by then self-driving cars come with a carton of milk, or totally unobtaibale due to a global economic crisis, crippling inflation and subsequent industrial standstill? Having a beat up Model 3 could be the difference between having a house to sleep in after a good meal, or sleep in the car. Which no-one can buy from you (devastating road tax?) to go buy yourself some groceries.
If you believe in a more flexible policy on aftermarket work on Teslas, the bare version would be the smartest to buy.
Glamisduner
Active Member
Ok, here's my situation and thoughts so far (appreciate any advice). If I go for the first production the car will be available between Mar-May 2018, if I go for the standard it will be available between May and July 2018.
Seems like I would actually have a chance at getting the full rebate (this is a question) if I go with the first production? More than likely a 1/2 rebate if I go for the standard + premium?
As for range I will probably be ok with either, but I would consider long drives only with the upgraded battery. However the wifes SUV or my truck could be used for road trips... MOST of my longer drives right now, is towing a trailer for mini vacations and requires a large diesel to do that anyways, but every now and then we will go on a hotel roadtrip (say once a year).
My daily commute is about 80 miles with some maybe 120 or so from time to time when I stop in to visit the parents. So I will be racking up the miles quickly on whatever car I get.
Seems like I would actually have a chance at getting the full rebate (this is a question) if I go with the first production? More than likely a 1/2 rebate if I go for the standard + premium?
As for range I will probably be ok with either, but I would consider long drives only with the upgraded battery. However the wifes SUV or my truck could be used for road trips... MOST of my longer drives right now, is towing a trailer for mini vacations and requires a large diesel to do that anyways, but every now and then we will go on a hotel roadtrip (say once a year).
My daily commute is about 80 miles with some maybe 120 or so from time to time when I stop in to visit the parents. So I will be racking up the miles quickly on whatever car I get.
If you commute that far, you're spending a lot of time in that car. If you can afford it, why not buy the first available longer range upgraded version and guarantee the full rebate/tax credit? You might still receive the full tax credit if you wait for the base model, but you most certainly won't be as comfortable!
Glamisduner
Active Member
Comfort is always a trade off, the cars devalue quite quickly with so many miles. Currently I have a focus that is devaluing as fast as I pay it off. I figure no matter I get the car will be basically worthless after 5-6 years of this kind of commute. I do worry about Battery degradation 220 x .8 = 176, then running AC / Heat etc takes away some (not sure how much) Maybe down to 150 or 140? if 140 then at 1% degradation a year the rage will only be around 133 miles after 5 years?
Phillip L
Gas Passer
For my consideration M3 would be a second car for relatively local use, having our loaded S85D for longer trips. So I would probably go for the basic black plus options package, because of our winters here (with Michelin Xice 3's for the winter driving - I am firmly in the camp of good snow tires being 90% of good winter traction). My quandary is whether to go with the M3 or keep our Volt, which I have been very pleased with. Well, have over a year to decide.
Is battery degradation that significant and over what time frame? I am also torn between models. I live in a cold climate and with degradation I'm concerned about the car in say 5 years not to mention if my driving needs change to require more driving in that time frame. I also feel like the long range may hold up better as far as resale due to degradation plus inevitable advances in battery tech rendering the standard range rather small in the future.
Are you in need of a new car now? Would you buy the car without the tax credit?
Degradation happens over time, even when not used, but especially with use. Number of charge cycles. And recently, it's been exposed that fast/supercharging makes it worse.
I think that if you charge at home, not to more than 80% on typical days, and only when you need extra range the next day, you will have only small degradation. Daily megamiling and exclusive supercharging...long range will cope with that better.
110V charging is pretty impractical. If you (or a friend) have modest electrical skills and a fairly conveniently located electrical panel you can add a perfectly functional 40A 240V charging circuit for under $25 - that's about $10 each for a 50A breaker and NEMA 14-50 outlet, plus $5 for a 4square surface mount box. It took me about 2 hours to install (including the trip to Home Depot), and I've been using it every night for the past 4 years. There's no need for a fancy Tesla charger wall mount - the "Mobile Connector" which comes with the car is perfectly sufficient, and is 20' long.
Camera-Cruiser
Fully Charged
Everyone's usage scenario is a bit different, sure. My point is for people getting into their first electric car, that range is not RANGE in the classic sense. You leave your car unplugged for a week, and you will not be happy. Vampire loss is real and when I see that someone thinks that they will just charge every couple of days, I worry. Not that you can't do that, but that is the mentality coming from ice ownership.
Plus, as all owners know, you really need to find your comfortable low buffer. For an ice car, the gas station is generally less than a few miles away. For us, sure, there are 110 outlets everywhere, but that is not what we need to get home, or to the next destination.
Do I want to spend 9K more for the car? Nope. Will I?
Yup
tam-o-shanter
Member
Newbie to the forum today but reserved online night of March 31st (even tho my reservation says April 1 - scheduled for Q1 2018). Been lurking and trying to learn everything for so long now. This link is super helpful, thank you! I was figuring I needed the long-range as I am in sales and on the road most days. My farthest client is about 50 miles one way. If I didn't make any other stops during the day, the smaller range leaves me with 29% at end of day but longer range leaves me with 46%.
I'm figuring with trying to make multiple stops (often up to 10 in one small town), I needed the longer range, plus there are some hills to climb and need my AC.
Question: I am a one-person household. Should I consider keeping my gas car as a back-up? I don't think so, but I also can't be without wheels for too many days if car needs service often (which would be a 1-hour commute to Santa Barbara for service).
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