Highest production VIN in the wild

[Waiting4M3]

1. They might want to wait for currently unavailable options.
2. They might have reserved with the theory that they'd flip the cars and make profit.
3. A lot of people are willing to put down a refundable $1k, but when it's time to make an actual commitment, that's a bigger deal. I heard a rumor (again… rumor, not stating this as fact) that the Model X reservation -> order/purchase conversation rate was as low as 9%. Not 19%, or 49%. 9%. I've personally figured there's no way that more than 50% of the reservations would be orders *ever*, and I'd be kinda surprised if more than 15% become "First Production" orders.
4. A lot of people want to lease, and can't.

I guess whoever at Tesla who signed off on M3 production CapEx didn't know about the rumor about the MX conversion rate

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Someone checked if they already started registering 2018 versions? Either start from 0 again, or more likely continue from 3841.

The 2018 VIN switchover is supposed to occur December 22nd. From what I gather, they will not start from 0 but continue from 3841 (assuming they don't register any more 2017s before then). As a result, my twitter bot (@Model3VINs) is currently checking for #3841 v2017 and v2018. Once the 2018s start, I'll stop looking for 2017s.

 

[Reciprocity]

I guess whoever at Tesla who signed off on M3 production CapEx didn't know about the rumor about the MX conversion rate

They are going to sell about 45,000 Model X this year, which is 50% more then last year and every single one they could possibly manufacture. My guess is that they will sell every single model 3 they can manufacture and still have a huge queue for the next 2 years or more or at least long enough to take reservations for the Model Y which will be 2x as many as the model 3.

 

[run-the-joules]

I guess whoever at Tesla who signed off on M3 production CapEx didn't know about the rumor about the MX conversion rate

That's not a commentary on absolute sales numbers, just to be clear. They obviously sell well, but how many of those sales were from people with reservations? Who knows.

Here's a cheerful thought for you: Statistically speaking, if we say that were are about 400,000 individuals with Model 3 reservations over the last two years, and they are in every way average people living average lives, somewhere around 3,000 of them have died. Obviously it's likely somewhat lower due to factors like income, where they live, age, and so forth, but still…

 

[Waiting4M3]

That's not a commentary on absolute sales numbers, just to be clear. They obviously sell well, but how many of those sales were from people with reservations? Who knows.

IIRC some guessed there were about 30K MX reservations. If only 9% converted, that would be <2.7K sales. TMC MX forums had lots of reservation holders still ordering in Q3'16, and by Oct '16 it seemed that the reservations were close to be all cleared, and the last one was posted on TMC in Dec 2016. Tesla delivered ~2,400 MX in Q1'16, ~4,600 in Q2'16, ~8,800 in Q3'16, total of ~16K sold by the time the reservations were cleared. Based on what I see on TMC I think the 9% MX conversion rumor is far from the truth.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...
3. A lot of people are willing to put down a refundable $1k, but when it's time to make an actual commitment, that's a bigger deal. I heard a rumor (again… rumor, not stating this as fact) that the Model X reservation -> order/purchase conversation rate was as low as 9%. Not 19%, or 49%. 9%. I've personally figured there's no way that more than 50% of the reservations would be orders *ever*, and I'd be kinda surprised if more than 15% become "First Production" orders.
...

I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Model 3 reservation conversion rate will exceed 9%...

 

[PoitNarf]

31 new VINs spotted at FDC according to this thread on reddit: 57 different VIN(s) recorded at Tesla Delivery Center - 2100, 2000, 1600, 1616, 1333, 1133, and more ... • r/teslamotors

Video here:

So now we’re at 347 unique VINs spotted in the wild: https://blfire.lima-city.de/

 

[Bet TSLA]

So now we’re at 347 unique VINs spotted in the wild

I think it's stretching it to call vehicles parked at the delivery center "in the wild".

 

[Runt8]

I think it's stretching it to call vehicles parked at the delivery center "in the wild".

Because those cars on the way to the crusher, never to be seen again?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Because those cars on the way to the crusher, never to be seen again?

No, because they aren't in the wild. They haven't been delivered yet. A few may never be delivered. We don't even know if they've passed their final inspection; some may require rework.

I'm not saying the numbers aren't useful, just that the description may be misleading.

 

[RTPEV]

No, because they aren't in the wild. They haven't been delivered yet. A few may never be delivered. We don't even know if they've passed their final inspection; some may require rework.

I'm not saying the numbers aren't useful, just that the description may be misleading.

I think if they are at the delivery center (as opposed to some remote "penalty box" lot at the factory, it's pretty much certain that those cars are pretty close to being delivered.

 

[Frisco-Dad]

What's the goal of this thread ? Should report any Vin sighted? Or only vinS that are higher than currently reported vins? https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/fa818372-60ab-4297-8b6c-bbb82da23930-jpeg.266250/

 

[PoitNarf]

What's the goal of this thread ? Should report any Vin sighted? Or only vinS that are higher than currently reported vins?

The original intent was to just post the highest VIN seen so far, but since Tesla has been producing Model 3s with no sequential order to the VINs that doesn’t seem very useful. This thread should probably be renamed “Model 3 VIN Tally” or something like that. Having an idea of how many unique VINs that are out there is much more useful info so that we can get a better sense on how the production ramp is progressing.

Given the activity that we’ve seen just in the past week I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla is currently producing at least 100 Model 3s a day.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The original intent was to just post the highest VIN seen so far, but since Tesla has been producing Model 3s with no sequential order to the VINs that doesn’t seem very useful. This thread should probably be renamed “Model 3 VIN Tally” or something like that. Having an idea of how many unique VINs that are out there is much more useful info so that we can get a better sense on how the production ramp is progressing.

Given the activity that we’ve seen just in the past week I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla is currently producing at least 100 Model 3s a day.

I'm just not sure what the value is in stockpiling cars by the hundreds (if not thousands???)

Tax reasons, (new year delivery?? If they intend to deliver this year then how many delivery staff do you need to deliver a thousand cars? Just sayin.

 

[KarenRei]

Why is there the assumption that this is some "long term, non-moving stockpile of vehicles"? Every time people look at it the VINs are different.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Why is there the assumption that this is some "long term, non-moving stockpile of vehicles"? Every time people look at it the VINs are different.

Ahhh. I did not realize that. I just didn't notice a lot of people announcing their delivers so kinda made an assumption.

 

[Foxhound199]

Ahhh. I did not realize that. I just didn't notice a lot of people announcing their delivers so kinda made an assumption.

Where are the people getting deliveries? Haven't heard of a single one other than the nice gesture yesterday.

 

[tracksyde]

Where are the people getting deliveries? Haven't heard of a single one other than the nice gesture yesterday.

They’re out driving their Model 3. Not behind a computer screen talking about it

 

[dennis]

I wonder how many AWD's are in the 400,000+ reservations.

I have two reservations waiting for AWD if that helps.

 

[dennis]

Where are the people getting deliveries? Haven't heard of a single one other than the nice gesture yesterday.

All Model 3 deliveries with the exception of the special one yesterday are still going to employees of Tesla and SpaceX who have been asked not to post on social media. Non-employee deliveries will commence later in December. Based on the large number of vehicles queued up at the Fremont and Marina Del Rey Delivery Centers and the logistics area at the factory my guess is that Tesla is waiting for one final software update before delivering to non-employee customers.