Highest production VIN in the wild

[ModelNforNerd]

The highest VIN is 521, but there were only 200 or so cars delivered.

Sooo......obviously they skip VIN numbers during production.

Or lower numbered VINs had further to travel for delivery?

Or the lower numbered VINs we haven't seen were brought back in for re-work?

Or, yes, they've skipped some.

 

[voip-ninja]

Don't think this is accurate, but saw this on Teslarati: "While it’s still unclear if Tesla has begun to dig itself out of “deep production hell“, recent sightings of Model 3 vehicles bearing VINs in the thousands suggests that the company is starting to step through the ramp portion of its “S-curve”."

Am I missing something? Per the above, I thought we were only at 521.

They are reporting something as news they don't understand.

Tesla recently registered more VINs... there are still no sightings of a VIN # over 521.

 

[insaneoctane]

Based off the trickle of this thread, it feels like whatever they are trying to unjam with the production line has the line essentially shut down. Hopefully they will get things rolling again soon.

 

[teddyg]

Wow can't believe we are still sitting at only 521!
This is very bad news and could be disastrous for the stock short term if the Oct numbers are this poor.
I'll use it as a buying opportunity but still.
Will see what Musk has to say next week on the earnings call.
I see on his twitter looks like Musk was partying pretty hard with friends on a Weds night.
I would think if the Model 3 line was shut down he'd be 110% focused on fixing the problems so I don't think it is that bad.
Unless of course it's SO bad that he just said "Fu*k it..let's go get hammered guys!"

 

[dsvick]

The highest VIN is 521, but there were only 200 or so cars delivered.

Sooo......obviously they skip VIN numbers during production.

Or, they have delivered more cars in the three weeks since they made the announcement of the 220 they delivered in the third quarter..

 

[Garlan Garner]

Or, they have delivered more cars in the three weeks since they made the announcement of the 220 they delivered in the third quarter..

That would be a stretch.....looking at all of the tweets from Elon about production Hell.

OR, maybe you are right. Maybe they delivered a ton of cars which would explain the following "Non Production Hell video. lol - I did say lol.

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk hints at ‘production hell’ at battery Gigafactory in Nevada

 

[teddyg]

8th circle of hell is fraud in Dante's inferno...bears are going to love that one.

 

[BFRchitect]

Based on the 2 threads in TMC (production M3 pics and highest VIN), and 1 thread on M3OC (highest VIN), I've compiled the following VINs that have been sighted, and when they were 1st spotted. I might have missed a few since I didn't click on all the links with images to actual car or the sticker with VIN on them, also I generally trust people's personal accounts without photos.

SN Sighted
1 7/18/2017
3 7/21/2017
5 7/30/2017
6 8/6/2017
<snip>

Based on the numbers provided, I made a rough analysis on the # of unique VINs in the wild, the maximum known VIN and an extrapolation of deliveries based on a delivery-to-#unique-VINs-multiplier as of October (which is approx. 3.6).

See this picture:

Basically, maximum VIN doesn't say that much and, as we know the actual number of deliveries in Q3 AND the number of reported VINs in the wild, we can be quite accurate on the current # of deliveries.

So as of late October, I surmise that there have been 300 deliveries.

Keep on reporting those VINs, even if they're not the highest encountered so far! Every unique VIN helps!

 

[tomas]

Based on the numbers provided, I made a rough analysis on the # of unique VINs in the wild, the maximum known VIN and an extrapolation of deliveries based on a delivery-to-#unique-VINs-multiplier as of October (which is approx. 3.6).

See this picture:
View attachment 256439

Basically, maximum VIN doesn't say that much and, as we know the actual number of deliveries in Q3 AND the number of reported VINs in the wild, we can be quite accurate on the current # of deliveries.

So as of late October, I surmise that there have been 300 deliveries.

Keep on reporting those VINs, even if they're not the highest encountered so far! Every unique VIN helps!

LOL. Elegant. Unfortunately garbage in, garbage out.

 

[McHoffa]

Or, they have delivered more cars in the three weeks since they made the announcement of the 220 they delivered in the third quarter..

521 was spotted September 30 so it’s part of the 260 made in Q3

 

[run-the-joules]

521 was spotted September 30 so it’s part of the 260 made in Q3

At this point we don't have a scrap of evidence that even a single model 3 has been built in Q4, I believe. Not sure if sad, funny, or both.

 

[McHoffa]

At this point we don't have a scrap of evidence that even a single model 3 has been built in Q4, I believe. Not sure if sad, funny, or both.

true... it's very possible the few we've seen delivered this month were the 40 that were built in September but not yet delivered.

 

[ElecFan]

In that case, where are all the parts going that Elon's video showed? Could they be stowing cars somewhere and then takeoff with a bang when the bottlenecks are solved?

 

[smak]

If the highest VIN is 521, and they've delivered 1/2 that number through 9/30, seems probable that the next 260 cars completed and delivered will be <521.

 

[McHoffa]

If the highest VIN is 521, and they've delivered 1/2 that number through 9/30, seems probable that the next 260 cars completed and delivered will be <521.

Right, but the fact that we've still not seen anything above 521 since September 30 means that they've made another 260 at MOST in October, which means the second month in a row now that the ramp hasn't begun like it was meant to. In other words, they're almost a full 2 months behind schedule.

 

[MP3Mike]

VIN 531 reported here: Pictures of production Model 3s

 

[McHoffa]

VIN 531 reported here: Pictures of production Model 3s

View attachment 256576

Finally! We're moving!

 

[tomas]

Fake news! 521 was the end.

 

[electric_drive]

Highest VIN number reserved now seems to be 2639

 

[bomega87]

This seems pretty promising, on Oct 27, someone had reported up to vin 2145. When I checked these 9 vins had been registered, but vin 2147+ were valid but not registered yet. I spot checked down to vin 2584 from 2639, and from 2147-2151 and they are registered as of today!

Since they keep the every 10 or so vins not being valid and/or registered it would seem they added (registered) about 443 vehicles since yesterday and 9 the day before.