How did you Justify 95k car purchase?

[yobigd20]

Ok,

Not to highjack the thread... But I saw this statement and couldn't wrap my head around it. So I crunched some numbers - assuming a fully loaded prius (about $39K), 3625 miles per month, $3.232/gal (today's national average), and over 5 years. Total gas cost is about $14,059 added to the $39K and we get $53,059. Assuming Toyota gives a standard 4 year warranty (didn't look that part up), 1 years maintenance cost would be in the order of $35K. This doesn't add in the cost of oil changes - depending on you area could be between every 3 - 10K miles. Assuming every 3K, that would be 72.5 oil changes. Assuming $50 per oil change and we can add another 3,625 to the overall cost. We may have some arguement about the cost of gas going up, but our government does a lot to keep the price of gas down and I don't see that changing any time soon.

Since I drive my S about the same, I would LOVE to be able to say what yobigd20 is saying -- I just don't see how he came up with that.

National averages are misleading. Try running with $4/gallon, which is going to be a roughly correct average for the next few years in the more expensive parts of the country.

I still don't get to "pays for itself" with $4 gas, but it is closer.

I am guessing ER is Early retirement.

Changing oil every 3k miles is something rational people only do when they are trying to justify an EV purchase. There is no 2013 car that I know of that gets 3k miles on an oil change. My last 2 cars were well over 10k miles (545 and Civic).

It should be noted that the majority of the population lives where gas is well below $4 a gallon and will likely stay that way (although who the heck knows). And where gas is $4 a gallon, electricity is rarely $.10 a kwh.

In my local area, the pump says $3.17. My TOU rate is $.05 kwh. We have 2 new regional superchargers and we have Tesla's all over (store and SC 15 miles away for me).

Financial justification is almost never possible - except in Norway. Doesn't mean it isn't a fantastic car.

Sorry. Previous car was a Range Rover Evoque. Premium fuel only. Averaged 19mpg. I drive 1100+miles/week.

Doing the math, spending $4/gallon for premium fuel (even higher in other parts of the country) plus oil changes will always end up costing more than an electric car given enough mileage. You could get a Nissan versa at $11k and that'll still cost more than a $100k loaded Model S over time, albeit with many many many miles. That is my point.

Now, that being said, the total cost for me for the RR plus sales tax was about $62k. Try doing 1000 (rounding down) miles a week in at 19mpg for $4/gallon. That about $11k/year in fuel. At 300Wh/mile that same distance would be 15,600kW. If you pay CA .05/kW that'd cost you $780 vs that $11k. If you are near a supercharger perhaps it is all free. If you have solar perhaps it is all free. If your work has charging perhaps that is all free. I actually charge 50/50 (half at work for free, half at home). My rate is .17c/kW total. That comes out to about $2600 if I charged 100% at home. Since i do 50/50 my real cost is only $1300 for that mileage/year. That translates to roughly $10k a year in gas savings. Oh yeah, that doesn't even factor in the oil changes I would have needed in the ICE, nor the $230/month I save in green pass ezpass tolls. So that's at least another $2760 savings a year on top of the other $10k.

Add that up plus the original cost of the vehicle - $62k RR +$13.7k/yr vs $102k P85 ($95k after rebate) + $1.3k/yr, honestly in 3 years the total cost of ownership for me will be cheaper than if I had kept the RR.

Now the Prius' MSRP might be cheaper, and it has "ok" fuel efficiency. But after about 6-7 years...

suddenly the $100k P85 is looking cheaper than a Prius or any other car for that manner. (An if you had base S85 obviously even moreso)

Most people don't actually add all these numbers up and realize the true total cost of ownership.....

So if given the choice between buying and driving a Prius for 7 years vs a Tesla Model S, and factoring in that the Prius' total cost of ownership is more than the Model S, what would you choose? IMO the Prius isn't cool enough to justify the extra expensive over the Model S. Nor is it faster. Nor is it silent. Nor does it handle like a sports car. Nor does it have [insert cool ass Tesla feature here].

 

[neroden]

Sorry. Previous car was a Range Rover Evoque. Premium fuel only. Averaged 19mpg. I drive 1100+miles/week.

And there you go. The most crucial factor in TCO of a pure electric car vs. a hybrid vs. a gasoline car is how much you drive per week. The Model S has a high TCO if you don't drive much per week (like me), but if you drive a huge amount (like you), the Model S *CAN* pay for itself in fuel savings.

 

[David_Cary]

Except that at 50k miles/year, the Tesla will depreciate fairly quickly and you haven't factored that high depreciation in.

I'll guess you keep the car 2 years and a 2 year old Model S with 100k miles is probably worth 50% of new at best. So going with the original title, the depreciation is $47k. It is really really hard to get a Prius to depreciate $47k.

Guessing the battery can go 150k miles and you can keep the car and pay $40k every 3 years to replace the battery at $13k per year battery cost.

As a general rule in 2013, battery depreciation roughly equals gasoline cost. Now you can compare a 10mpg car to a Tesla and win out but you can never beat a 50 mpg car.

Make your comparable car a 535d at 30 mpg. Fairly fast, comfortable, luxurious and your diesel bill for 50k miles is closer to $7k. Very hard to come up with a scenario where battery depreciation is less than that.

Oh but the battery warranty! I don't believe degradation is covered so when your range is 50% of new at 150k miles, Tesla will say that is normal - and they are right. I'll bet that 130 miles of range won't get you 1100 miles per week - unless you supercharge almost every day - that would be fun....

Solar is never "free" just prepaid. If you have excess capacity and lose it, you made a bad financial decision in the past. Supercharging everyday or frequently would be a time sink. I suppose there are a few people would could be fully productive the entire time they are charging and driving to the charge station - but most probably can't.

 

[neroden]

Except that at 50k miles/year, the Tesla will depreciate fairly quickly and you haven't factored that high depreciation in.

Depreciation is only a guess at this point. A wild-ass guess.

I'll guess you keep the car 2 years and a 2 year old Model S with 100k miles is probably worth 50% of new at best. So going with the original title, the depreciation is $47k. It is really really hard to get a Prius to depreciate $47k.

You've done the calculations wrong. If I'm not mistaken, yobigd20 was assuming *no* residual value for the cars in his comparison. Think about it again. You might come out with better TCO if the Prius has a higher residual value than the Model S, but do you really believe that's possible?

Really, even a very expensive electric car can pay for itself if you drive an enormous number of miles but can tolerate the low range. Almost all of us do not drive nearly enough, of course.

As for your other assessment, you're assuming the model S battery will die extra-quickly. Does the high usage of the batteries make the batteries wear out faster? Well, maybe? Who knows? Nobody's owned any of them long enough to be sure, so that's a risk, certainly.

However, there's some evidence that the batteries retain most of their viability even after a very large number of charge cycles -- so we'll see. It seems almost certain that the rest of the car will last longer than a comparable gasoline car. My guess is that the battery will last a lot longer than you think it will. But we're both guessing.

Now, here's the final point: *if you don't need a long range* then it may be just fine to have batteries with 50% of range. So again, the ideal candidate (economically) to buy a Model S drives a very large number of miles but in very short loops to and from home. Say, multiple 120 mile trips every day. Most of us don't do that, but for the rare weirdo who does, it makes economic sense.

Make your comparable car a 535d at 30 mpg. Fairly fast, comfortable, luxurious and your diesel bill for 50k miles is closer to $7k. Very hard to come up with a scenario where battery depreciation is less than that.

Sure, diesels do better. But where do you fill it up? :wink: Diesel cars are far more annoying to "charge" than electric cars and diesel *isn't* universal at gas stations.

 

[yobigd20]

.If I'm not mistaken, yobigd20 was assuming *no* residual value for the cars in his comparison. Think about it again. You might come out with better TCO if the Prius has a higher residual value than the Model S, but do you really believe that's possible?

Really, even a very expensive electric car can pay for itself if you drive an enormous number of miles but can tolerate the low range. Almost all of us do not drive nearly enough, of course.

Correct. I assume $0 residual value in very car I have ever owned. Any $$$ I get when selling it is pure profit to me lol

As for your other assessment, you're assuming the model S battery will die extra-quickly. Does the high usage of the batteries make the batteries wear out faster? Well, maybe? Who knows? Nobody's owned any of them long enough to be sure, so that's a risk, certainly.

However, there's some evidence that the batteries retain most of their viability even after a very large number of charge cycles -- so we'll see. It seems almost certain that the rest of the car will last longer than a comparable gasoline car. My guess is that the battery will last a lot longer than you think it will. But we're both guessing.

Exactly. Elon stated a few months ago that one of their test cars has over 500,000 miles on it and still running strong. Roadster owners also experienced much better battery capacity than had been stated in specs. I expect very little battery degradation to occur based on mileage. Elon knows this too, which is why they've stated over and over again not to worry about the battery.

Now, here's the final point: *if you don't need a long range* then it may be just fine to have batteries with 50% of range. So again, the ideal candidate (economically) to buy a Model S drives a very large number of miles but in very short loops to and from home. Say, multiple 120 mile trips every day. Most of us don't do that, but for the rare weirdo who does, it makes economic sense.

Hey! You just called me a weirdo! lol

My commute is 100+ miles each way daily. So 200+ miles/day plus weekend driving. I actually met a roadster owner a few weeks ago that does 130miles each way , so 260 mile daily commute (I thought I drove a lot!) and he's seen no battery or degradation issues.

I did range charge a few weeks ago around 25000 miles and got 265 miles rated range. So I'm also seeing 0 degradation. Running great! Except for that balloon squeal whine when I punch it that still needs to get fixed lol

 

[jerry33]

Your numbers will vary wildly depending on where you live, but when I set up a spreadsheet, it made it very clear that the people who gain the most financially from an electric car are people who drive a great deal, but never go very far from home.

Why would that be? Seems to me that you would gain just as much during trips as close to home.

 

[Nathan Smith]

Now the Prius' MSRP might be cheaper, and it has "ok" fuel efficiency. But after about 6-7 years...

suddenly the $100k P85 is looking cheaper than a Prius or any other car for that manner. (An if you had base S85 obviously even moreso)

Well...

I listed the MSRP for the Prius (you quoted it) as 39K, which I got from thier website. Also looking at my calculations, you are $35K down after 5 years. We can argue about price of gas, oil changes vs maintence plan, and other maintenance cost after both cars are out of warranty; the end result is the TCO between these two vehicles aren't going to come close until after year 10 given the Tesla is being driven 120-150 miles a day.

I also take exception to reducing TCO by *free* sources of electricty (outside of the superchargers which are part of the cost of the car) as SOMEONE is paying those cost. If your employer is paying them for you, great for you - but don't take that away from the cost of operating the car. The ezpass thing you also mentioned is very area specific (having been through most of the country with the military, I haven't seen that exception outside of CA). And as mentioned, you prepaid for electricy from your solar arrays.

I am a proud owner of my Model S - but I make no bones about the purchase price dwarfing any savings I get in fuel vs cars I previously owned (ie: honda). And people try to make that leap a lot. Now for your Range Rover, which is a much more expense and inefficient vehicle the math work out better. But of course you also went from a SUV to a sedan.

 

[yobigd20]

Well...

I listed the MSRP for the Prius (you quoted it) as 39K, which I got from thier website. Also looking at my calculations, you are $35K down after 5 years. We can argue about price of gas, oil changes vs maintence plan, and other maintenance cost after both cars are out of warranty; the end result is the TCO between these two vehicles aren't going to come close until after year 10 given the Tesla is being driven 120-150 miles a day.

I said 1100 miles a week. 200 mile daily commute plus wkd. So my calculations are correct.

And besides, the difference between me paying 100% vs 0% in electricity is negligible compared to the price of gas. Even if I paid 100% at my current rate I'm still saving over $10k/year. Total cost of ownership for a Prius is still more expensive than a Model S.

 

[Nathan Smith]

Please forgive me if I am slow (I am known to be that at times),

but I thought your calculations were done against a Range Rover (19 miles/gallon and requires expensive gas) not against a prius (50 miles/gallon not the expensive gas). Could you please clarify for me?

 

[RoverS]

again... if you have to crunch the numbers to this extent -- it means you CAN NOT AFFORD IT!!!

stop trying to rationalize it.

 

[liuping]

again... if you have to crunch the numbers to this extent -- it means you CAN NOT AFFORD IT!!!

stop trying to rationalize it.

I know many people whoa can easily afford a Tesla, who like to "crunch the numbers". Interest in the TCO of a car is not a sign of lack of wealth.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

again... if you have to crunch the numbers to this extent -- it means you CAN NOT AFFORD IT!!!

stop trying to rationalize it.

Have you read the thread?

 

[yobigd20]

Please forgive me if I am slow (I am known to be that at times),

but I thought your calculations were done against a Range Rover (19 miles/gallon and requires expensive gas) not against a prius (50 miles/gallon not the expensive gas). Could you please clarify for me?

it doesn't matter what kind of car you compare it against. electric cars will always have lower TCO than any ICE car.

 

[David_Cary]

it doesn't matter what kind of car you compare it against. electric cars will always have lower TCO than any ICE car.

And that statement just shows that some people can't listen to rational thought or they are really prone to hyperbole.

While it is possible if the battery lasts for more charge cycles than any other prior Li battery and you drive a lot, the TCO will be better. But in the vast majority of driving situations, a Tesla will cost more over time than a Prius. Obviously the driving experience is vastly different but it comes at a price.

Even just little things like the $600 maintenance charge per year that can get a Prius 7500 miles in gas. The interest on the $70k upcharge at 2% is $1400 a year or 350 gallons or 17,500 miles per year. Just interest + maintenance gets a Prius 25k miles per year or the 97th percentile of driving distance. Maintenance on a Prius - less than the electricity charge even if you charge at work half the time.

Depreciation is nearly always the highest component of TCO. It is really hard to recover from a $95k depreciation schedule.

 

[Nathan Smith]

it doesn't matter what kind of car you compare it against. electric cars will always have lower TCO than any ICE car.

This stateement is just flat out wrong. I know we all love our cars, but come on. Let's start with a definition, shall we?

TCO - The TCO concept is widely used in the transportation industry. For example, the TCO defines the cost of owning an automobile from the time of purchase by the owner, through its operation and maintenance to the time it leaves the possession of the owner. (from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Cost_of_Ownership )

Thus if I keep my Model S for 4 years, I can't see any realistic scenario where I could drive enough to even make the TCOs close. And that's ignoring depreciation. Even if you are saving $10K a year in energy, the numbers aren't close. BTW: 50K miles a year would cost $4k in fuel for the prius (50 miles per gallon, $4 per gallon gas), so you can't even save the 10K at that amount of driving. If we continue on this examination - It goes back to my earlier post... You would have to own the Model S a MIN of 10 years and drive it 50K per year to even get the TCOs close.

 

[jerry33]

Even just little things like the $600 maintenance charge per year that can get a Prius 7500 miles in gas.

The Prius also costs $600 per year to maintain. That's assuming you actually do preventive maintenance and don't just change the oil and drive it into the ground. The main difference in operating costs is tires. From my numbers (based on 146,689 miles of 2004 Prius driving).

Fuel: 5 cents per mile (based on the actual cost of gas that I purchased. My lifetime average was 59.7 mpg).
2004 Prius MPG from the logbook:
2003-2004 -- 50.8 mpg 17,628 miles
2005 -- 52.6 mpg 14,688 miles
2006 -- 56.3 mpg 16,174 miles
2007 -- 57.3 mpg 18,384 miles
2008 -- 59.9 mpg 21,755 miles
2009 -- 61.4 mpg 16,177 miles
2010 -- 65.2 mpg 12,134 miles
2011 -- 66.9 mpg 11,272 miles
2012 -- 69.2 mpg 16,212 miles

Another way of looking at the numbers:

2004 Prius delivered Oct 15, 2003.

12 months prior to Oct 2004
Gas: $466.13 Miles: 13,333 $/mile: $0.0350
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $559.37


12 months prior to Oct 2005
Gas: $686.77 Miles: 16,631 $/mile: $0.0413
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $660.71


12 months prior to Oct 2006
Gas: $708.38 Miles: 14,716 $/mile: $0.0481
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $770.19


12 months prior to Oct 2007
Gas: $825.08 Miles: 17,963 $/mile: $0.0459
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $734.92


12 months prior to Oct 2008
Gas: $889.01 Miles: 15,855 $/mile: $0.0561
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $897.14


12 months prior to Oct 2009
Gas: $774.33 Miles: 20,641 $/mile: $0.0375
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $600.23


12 months prior to Oct 2010
Gas: $613.65 Miles: 14,589 $/mile: $0.0421
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $673.00


12 months prior to Oct 2011
Gas: $522.04 Miles: 10,606 $/mile: $0.0511
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $817.71


12 months prior to Oct 2012
Gas: $857.03 Miles: 16,024 $/mile: $0.0535
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $855.75


Up to February 26, 2013 fill
Gas: $259.00 Miles: 5,458 $/mile: $0.0475
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $759.25

Model S delivered Mar 2, 2013. Stopped logging the Prius.



Maintenance: 7 cents per mile (includes tires). Total maintenance cost: $10,161.95.

For the Model S, fuel is 2.5 to 3 cents per mile and maintenance will be under 7 cents per miles because the amount of driving per year will likely be higher. However, the maintenance doesn't include tires in this case.

Basically, the Prius will cost me less to drive than the Model S. But so what? The Prius also costs less to drive than a Mercedes or BMW.

 

[David_Cary]

I am shocked you could actually spend $600 on a Prius maintenance.

My only comparable is 80k miles on a Honda Civic. I did 8 oil changes, synthetic at $50 a pop - $400. I bought some tranny fluid and did myself but I'll give you $200 for that.

So on an HCH it was $600 - for 5 years. Sure I am not counting tire rotations and alignments. For a lot of people that is fair given location from Tesla SC but we can add that in at 2 alignments and 4 rotations - $200. Sure it probably should been double. So you get around $1000 for 5 years.

 

[huntjo]

Of course model S will sometimes calculate to have higher TCO than a Prius...
It is larger
It is a premium sedan that seats 5 adults and 2 kids
It's performance is sick, and the tech is futuristic.
Why is this even debated? The cars are in different classes. What you probably mean to do is compare a Prius with a Leaf which is comparable functionality.

As for my answer to the OP: I couldn't justify a $95k car... So I got a $112k car, lol

 

[jerry33]

Why is this even debated?

I have no idea. The only real question is how much more. I don't think it's all that much more. About the same as a Prius compared to a Camry.

 

[DanielG]

My old Prius with 187k miles got a bit long in the tooth. Was casually looking around for options with the following parameters:
- >100 miles/gal: check
- reasonable safety (no Smart): at the time (Jan 2013) NTSB rating was not out yet, but the frunk engineered for safety due to lack of engine made a big impression.
- needs to accommodate trip to the hardware store. Check.

My main concern was that it was too ostentatious. But as overall cost for long term ownership is comparable to a Camry (some online calculator somewhere), that is not that bad. Additionally, nerds support nerds. I am not a car guy, but I appreciate folks standing up for what they believe in and to experiment with something new.

In pure $ and c it may not make sense, but as this is not a major concern for me, I went for it. Just a regular 85, reasonably loaded, but nevertheless. Don't regret it a second.