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How long until 1000 X's are delivered ?
- Thread starter macpacheco
- Start date
flankspeed8
Member
What possibly makes you think that 1k MX's will be delivered by next week? By the end of January, sure. But as early as next week? no way.
MichealW
Member
I was told by someone who works with Tesla that the ramp up is going to pick up pace... Mac's prediction could be closer than you think... 
My guess is by the 20th.
My guess is by the 20th.The whisper was at least 1/3 of the assembly line have been churning MXs. I don't know for how long, but let's just assume the later half of December, and just 1/3 MX...
If the assembly line is running at 1800 cars / wk, that would be 1200 cars in the last two weeks of December alone.
So I'm being fairly conservative. The biggest bottleneck is transit time. 1000th Model X could be built this week (unless there's a production slowdown after x-mas).
Plus Tesla could prioritize west coast deliveries (after sending the first trickle of MXs everywhere).
I think around 250 MXs will be delivered by years end, with deliveries exploding in early Jan/16.
If the assembly line is running at 1800 cars / wk, that would be 1200 cars in the last two weeks of December alone.
So I'm being fairly conservative. The biggest bottleneck is transit time. 1000th Model X could be built this week (unless there's a production slowdown after x-mas).
Plus Tesla could prioritize west coast deliveries (after sending the first trickle of MXs everywhere).
I think around 250 MXs will be delivered by years end, with deliveries exploding in early Jan/16.
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It's not already done? I would guess it is. There are a lot of X's around. I saw a silver one next to my mother's house on Thursday
.oh delivered..
tomorrow?
but the Factory was pretty empty on the 25th, so maybe Thursday?
.oh delivered..
tomorrow?
but the Factory was pretty empty on the 25th, so maybe Thursday?
2virgule5
Member
How long until 1000 X's are delivered ? probably very soon
Well, according to Tesla spokesperson Khobi Brooklyn they have now delivered "hundreds" so, if indeed the ramp up is progressing well, it may be within the next couple of week, which would then see first delivery of production models.
Source: Tesla starts shipping "Signature Series" Model X cars to customers - Fortune
Well, according to Tesla spokesperson Khobi Brooklyn they have now delivered "hundreds" so, if indeed the ramp up is progressing well, it may be within the next couple of week, which would then see first delivery of production models.
Source: Tesla starts shipping "Signature Series" Model X cars to customers - Fortune
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According to another poster, his DS told him that no Production X's will be delivered until after the Sig's have been delivered (at least the confirmed orders). The Service Centers have been spending a tremendous amount of time on QA and minor repairs on the early Sig's so he said that they will shut the line down for a short time to adjust the robots and other procedures to address the issues that have been discovered, and will then start running the Production orders. My WAG is that Production deliveries will start mid to late February.
sub
Active Member
I believe Elon said they would be at 300/wk by the end of December. I'm not sure how many sigs there are, is 1200 correct? That would put sigs done by 3rd week of January. They are not going to shut down the line for 2-3 weeks to make minor corrections. I'm assuming the people that designed those robots were smart enough to allow for quick fine tuning. I'm not sure if this part of the line is the shared line with Model S, for sure they won't be shutting that down for weeks!
Mark Z
Active Member
The thread should be titled "manufactured" instead of "delivered".
With completed vehicles individually shipped in small covered carrier trucks, there is a possibility of delay.
If Tesla Motors had large custom covered semi-trucks engineered for high volume delivery to central distribution points, the individual trucks wouldn't have to make the entire factory to service center drive. At least the train deliveries to the east helps the situation.
UPDATE: I have posted "Delivery - A Third Party Variable" here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-2015/page17?p=1296697&viewfull=1#post1296697
It is in regard to the end-of-year rush and what can occur.
With completed vehicles individually shipped in small covered carrier trucks, there is a possibility of delay.
If Tesla Motors had large custom covered semi-trucks engineered for high volume delivery to central distribution points, the individual trucks wouldn't have to make the entire factory to service center drive. At least the train deliveries to the east helps the situation.
UPDATE: I have posted "Delivery - A Third Party Variable" here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-2015/page17?p=1296697&viewfull=1#post1296697
It is in regard to the end-of-year rush and what can occur.
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I meant to ask delivered. If hundreds were already delivered, then considering latency from production to delivery, I think the 1000th X will be done this week already (good chance its already finished).
If we're going to discuss produced, then let's talk 2000th X produced, which seems just as interesting as the 1000th X delivered:biggrin:
flankspeed8
Member
Blastphemy
Member
You're getting ahead of yourself, macpacheco. Tesla said that when it achieves full production -- probably Q2 next year -- it will deliver approximately 1,600-1,800 cars per week (meaning 800-900 Model X per week).
That is not what is being built right now. They're in the very low hundreds per week, currently; probably 100-200 per week produced, if that.
vangogh
Member
Source: Tesla starts shipping "Signature Series" Model X cars to customers - Fortune
@2virgule5...NOT DELIVERED...it say s 100's produced...there is a big difference between producing and delivering them. They could have them all complete save one part...
"Tesla spokesperson Khobi Brooklyn told Fortune that Tesla has now produced “hundreds” of Model Xs"
2virgule5
Member
The article was later edited (see below, I'm just the messenger!). I guess we may know more when Q4 numbers are announced next week. An analyst at Global Equities Research published a note today that the total number this quarter may be above 18300 (delivered) but no information on the number of X (and this is just a prediction).
Update: The story was revised from the original after a Tesla spokesperson said she had mistakenly associated deliveries with production numbers. The company has produced “hundreds” of Model Xs rather than delivered “hundreds” to customers.
Update: The story was revised from the original after a Tesla spokesperson said she had mistakenly associated deliveries with production numbers. The company has produced “hundreds” of Model Xs rather than delivered “hundreds” to customers.
At the Salt Lake Center, there are 3 Xs just sitting in the back lot in the snow. I don't think they plan on delivering them until after the end of the quarter, because if they need more prep and delivery time than a Model S, it would decrease the overall number of cars delivered if they are already under staffed and time constrained.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Houston and San Diego Service Centers each have 10-12 getting prepped for delivery.
Imagine there are hundreds on the ground right now, and even more on the assembly line or ready to get shipped out for pre-orders.
Seems like the assembly line is ramping up quickly, and Tesla is beginning the job of delivering thousands of cars to anxious owners.
This thing is happening right before our eyes.
Imagine there are hundreds on the ground right now, and even more on the assembly line or ready to get shipped out for pre-orders.
Seems like the assembly line is ramping up quickly, and Tesla is beginning the job of delivering thousands of cars to anxious owners.
This thing is happening right before our eyes.
MichealW
Member
This is getting exciting! I think your right Paul... I'm non-sig production #350ish! Could have my car by Valentines day!! We will see...
stealthology
Member
Do you think those 10-12 X's at the San Diego center were delivered by yesterday?