Hurricane Irma

[X Fan]

Weather Channel just reported that Naples could see 100 mph wind gusts for 15 hours....yikes.

 

[Cyclone]

18z GFS ensemble in:

That one line track that just wants to visit Charlotte

 

[Racerx22b]

So glad I stayed put.

Only 19% chance Palm Beach will see hurricane force winds.

 

[Mulligan Jake]

Rookie question,
I have CPO 2012 MS 60 with max range 200 miles. If I have to evacuate Savannah, Ga (doesn't look like it now), do I lose range in so go interstate driving compared to normal 65-70 mph?

This is an update to posting #84 regarding determining the status of Supercharger Stations.

I have been in contact with Tesla to learn the best means of determining the status of Supercharger Stations during emergencies such as Hurricane Irma.
Go to your car's navigation system map and scroll into the particular Supercharger Station that you are interested in. Put your finger on the icon and the system will provide the status of how many stalls are available with a lag of 5 minutes. In the event of a power outage, the Supercharger station will display a “temporary closure” message to let you know the station is unavailable.

Additional information:

Tesla informs me that if you have any difficulties interpreting your navigation system, or if for some reason the Supercharger status isn't showing in your car, call Roadside Assistance at 877-79-TESLA.

Roadside Assistance has access to Supercharger vital signs. I am informed that they are keeping a very close eye on them and will communicate any concerns to us appropriately.

Please stay safe.

Larry

 

[DrivingRockies]

Rookie question,
I have CPO 2012 MS 60 with max range 200 miles. If I have to evacuate Savannah, Ga (doesn't look like it now), do I lose range in so go interstate driving compared to normal 65-70 mph?

Slower = better range. Obviously if stopped in traffic it isn't a benefit.

 

[Archimedes]

Yeah. I am surprised how many of my friends' families are staying put. We stayed for Andrew with our shutters up, but I am still surprised. I'd be freaking out right now if my family was down there at the moment, though they are up here with me.

We just received word from our nephew stationed at Kings Bay Naval Base north of Jacksonville FL, that the base will begin evacuating tomorrow morning at 0800. He and a dozen other Marines, wives, girlfriends, children and pets are heading to our house. We live near Athens GA, about 50 miles northeast of Atlanta.

As of right now we're expecting tropical storm conditions here on Monday. Heavy rain with winds of 40-45 mph, gusting to 65 mph. Our thoughts and prays to all those affected.

 

[DiamondHands]

In the end, what would be great to know is:

• If you chose to evacuate in a Tesla, did it give you a “leg up” on everyone else since you were not affected by gas shortages or waits?
• Were there lines at Superchargers?
• Overall, would you rather have evacuated in an EV or a gas car?

I'll be happy to provide my input once we reach the end.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Rookie question,
I have CPO 2012 MS 60 with max range 200 miles. If I have to evacuate Savannah, Ga (doesn't look like it now), do I lose range in so go interstate driving compared to normal 65-70 mph?

For your 2012 60 kWh Model S this chart should be of interest.

Read more at Driving Range for the Model S Family.

As was mentioned, slower is better for range as long as you are not caught in stop and go traffic.

At a constant 45 mph you've got a 300 mile range car.

Larry

 

[e-FTW]

As Hurricane Irma Nears, Gasoline Is In Short Supply For Floridians — NPR

NPR: As Hurricane Irma Nears, Gasoline Is In Short Supply For Floridians

As Florida drivers hit the road to escape Hurricane Irma, the demand for gasoline has outpaced supply, leaving filling stations throughout the state short of fuel.
"It's horrible, man," said Aaron Izquierdo, who waited in a long line of cars at a Shell station in Doral on Friday. "Just yesterday I was in line for two hours to wait for gas, and by the time we got to the pump there was no gas."
In Gainesville, 60 percent of the gasoline stations were without fuel, according to Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst at the crowdsourcing website Gasbuddy.com. In Miami, it was 40 percent.
------------------------------------------------------------

Yet electricity is still readily available.

I agree, and am assuming that we would be better off in an EV simply because the crushing majority is relying on a suddenly over-subscribed gasoline distribution system. Transporting electricity over wires is much easier to do than transporting gasoline in ships and trucks, in a pinch.
But I'm not in Florida, and I wonder if the lower number of Tesla per capita/Supercharger is making a difference.
Imagine if a devastating quake hit the Bay Area, and we had to evacuate...

 

[Knightowl]

Yeah. I am surprised how many of my friends' families are staying put. We stayed for Andrew with our shutters up, but I am still surprised. I'd be freaking out right now if my family was down there at the moment, though they are up here with me.

All of my family is down there, Naples, Sarasota, Daytona, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, all across the state pretty much my whole family except myself, wife and 2 kids.

I am concerned only that they may have gotten lax since there has not been a major hurricane since I left the state in 2006. But I trust they will have adequately prepared. Everyone is staying put, boarding up and securing was completed today, the rest is waiting it out.

 

[EV-lutioin]

So glad I stayed put.

Only 19% chance Palm Beach will see hurricane force winds.

Perhaps, but the storm surge warning is what I would be worried about.

 

[gabeincal]

So glad I stayed put.

Only 19% chance Palm Beach will see hurricane force winds.

You're the most chill person I've 'met'. "Only" 19%?

 

[K-MTG]

Since Tesla's are super heavy and aerodynamic you can probably drive in a hurricane! But what would I know...it doesn't rain in SoCal

 

[Racerx22b]

Perhaps, but the storm surge warning is what I would be worried about.

If I lived next door to Trump I would be. However, I'm about 8 miles inland and far from any waterway connected to ocean.

 

[Racerx22b]

You're the most chill person I've 'met'. "Only" 19%?

As I've said before, I've lived here my entire life. At 19% (looks to be even less of a chance as of the most recent track prediction) the winds we do get, if we get em, will likely be category 1. My house meets all current hurricane building codes and I have generator backup so I, confident I'm good. I don't even have my accordion shutters closed yet. Gonna wait until this evening. Unless something goes sideways. Takes about 10mins to close up house.

If I lived Between Ft Myers and Tampa ... I'd be crapping my pants.

 

[Ormond]

I'm in Daytona Beach, and we're staying. I have hurricane shutters and new windows. My negative is that I'm very close to the ocean.

I'm keeping my car charged, and hoping that Elon opens the transcontinental hyperloop any momement now. Surprise!

 

[KarenRei]

ECMWF ensemble took a surprisingly significant hop west this run, given how late in the game were are. Now centred on Key West / Tampa. Whole west coast on the "dirty side", but only tropical storm conditions on the east:

GFS is still not quite so sure:

ECMWF ensemble for Jose is still contemplating being mean to places hit by Irma (thankfully that's a minority view!):

HWRF thinks Irma will cross the keys at around 140-155mph, landfall in the mainland about 125mph. But there's a good bit of uncertainty, and either way, the windfield is huge (which means a large surge regardless of peak windspeeds - see e.g. Ike, which was 110mph at landfall)

 

[KarenRei]

Specific peak gust predictions from Irma based on the ECMWF, in percentiles (0th, 10th, 50th, 90th, 100th). Click the link for updates; they should update twice per day. These numbers are current as of posting time and are sorted in descending order of 50% percentile peak wind gusts.

Key West: 90 / 100 / 116 / 136 / 154
Naples: 62 / 84 / 107 / 128 / 135
Sarasota: 69 / 86 / 105 / 126 / 140
Cape Coral: 69 / 81 / 102 / 126 / 135
Key Largo: 73 / 78 / 100 / 129 / 140
Clearwater: 66 / 78 / 97 / 115 / 127
Moore Haven: 66 / 73 / 92 / 117 / 127 (small town, but wanted a place on western Lake Okeechobee)
Orlando: 55 / 65 / 85 / 103 / 112
Dayton Beach: 58 / 66 / 83 / 103 / 129
Gainesville: 48 / 57 / 82 / 105 / 114
Miami: 57 / 65 / 81 /105 / 123
West Palm Beach: 60 / 65 / 76 / 94 / 122
Macon: 50 / 57 / 84 / 89 / 93
Jacksonville: 52 / 29 / 76 / 95 / 111
Tallahassee: 52 / 58 / 73 / 89 / 102
Savannah: 43 / 50 / 63 / 77 / 87
Atlanta: 32 / 39 / 59 / 77 / 87
Montgomery: 28 / 34 / 46 / 66 / 71
Pensacola: 30 / 36 / 42 / 48 / 59

Note that the ECMWF is not the only model, and it's fairly tightly clustered. While it's usually more reliable than the GFS, it's not always the case, and the GFS ensembles have more of a spread. Note also that ECMWF is good with intensity forecasts, but others (such as HWRF) tend to be slightly better.

 

[Racerx22b]

Only 5% chance now for hurricane force winds for Palm Beach and only 2" of rain predicted. We get more than 2" of rain on any given summer thunderstorm. What a crazy swing in predictions.

79% chance of Tropical Storm winds.

 

[kort677]

Fortunately for the east coasters this change of the storm's path will lessen the impact for us, unfortunately the west coasters are in for a bad ride.