Yeah I'm expecting Level 5 on AP2. They keep selling the promise even today on the design studio. If they don't think it's possible why continue to show FSD on the website? Why would they screw themselves over so badly on purpose? Does anyone think Elon really wants to screw himself over? Because I don't see the fun in that.
Otherwise you better believe there will be major major lawsuits. There is so much pessimism, which is going to look stupid once more updates come out.
This is completely naive. Tesla releasing an update doesn't negate all for example i have been saying since dec 1 2016. How they have been deceptive about AP2 and its timeline since day one.
The discussion about pessimism, I will reiterate. The reason AP2 won't achieve L5, let alone any kind of L4 (including highway) is not even about GPU compute power.
Its because AP2 and AP2.5 is a camera only system.
The 12 ultrasonic are useless because they are only good for precision parking and even with that are unreliable because they don't see narrow and small objects. This is the reason for many auto-parking/summon related accidents. Besides they are only good to 26 ft.
This leaves 8 cameras and 1 radar which has about 25 degree FOV if i remember correctly. This makes the radar useless for 95% of all driving tasks. For example, ramps, intersections, turns, busy urban/city roads. Its so narrow that you can avoid being detected up to 25ft away and still be in the trajectory of the car.
How do you make turns or watch for upcoming cars from the left and right at an intersection for example with one camera and 1 narrow radar?
You have to be delusional to think that one radar amounts to anything other than forward driving in one line in a restricted highway.
For this to not be a camera only system it would need surround radars. At night in freeway/roads with no light for example, the side and back facing cameras are literally useless. That's literally 5 cameras rendered useless.
@verygreen can confirm this.
Ever taken a road trip at midnight in the interstate roads with absolutely no lights?
This is a camera only system that is without an complimentary system.
This is why it will never be L4.
For a car to be L4 and higher it will need two main vision systems.
The reason radar isn't a main system (besides it will need surround radars to even be A system) is that unlike it, lidar system can differentiate and classify objects. It can classify a deer or pedestrian, a car, a cone, lanes, trees, barriers, road sign,cyclist, pedestrians, curbs, grass, road edges etc. Radar on the other hand will just return that it sees a big object and cant tell you that the object is a big rock or a deer.
Lidar also works in heavy rain, snow and dust.
The reason you need two main system is that when one fails, the other takes over.
People misunderstand when i say the camera system fails. I'm not talking about the individual cameras, or the entire set of cameras. Most people naively count redundancy based on how many cameras are facing a particularly fov.
But that's not where failure happens at. Failure happens in the SOFTWARE predominately. Object recognition and classification failure.
For example the car not recognizing the dog in Tesla FSD video. It would have killed that dog, that's the camera system failure i'm talking about. And there is no backup.
We already know that even camera hardware fail in adheres conditions(bright sunlight,night, etc) which also influence the object recognition and classification capability which then means you literally driving blind.
Its a big deal that the 2018 Audi A8 is the first car with Lidar and more will follow in 2018.
Any one who compares radar or even suggests radar can replace the functionality of lidar
(which can see a football helmet from two football fields away and classify it) should be banned for crimes against common sense.
