HW2.5 capabilities

[electronblue]

I wonder if Tesla will weasel out of doing HW3 upgrades by deploying the FSD features on HW2/2.5 without regards to reliability just to say they did their part.

Judging by the recent news I’m thinking Tesla might attempt to do some FSD on the AP2/2.5 hardware instead, yes. Originally they claimed they could, it has been the past year or so when Elon Musk’s repeated commented suggested HW3 hardware upgrades really were coming...

The dropping of FSD upgrade price does not really seem to support the narrative that a hardware upgrade is coming and early buyers just get a cheaper price for it.

I’m not saying HW3 upgrades are out yet but the possibility is on the map once again unfortunately.

 

[verygreen]

My understanding is that the AP computer is connector compatible between 2 and 3

no, it's not. go see ebay pictures. 2.5 and 3 is compatible.

Edit: 2.5 -> 3 is probably compatible. I've not yet seen a real 3 unit.

 

[BigD0g]

6 camera units (front is 3 combined). Each of those thousands of Tesla represents several thousands of deference revenue, so the money is there. Mobile service may take longer to drive to the car than the swap takes (so if you are going to swap the AP computer, doing the cameras also is not so big a time hit).

I've been involved in recalls/ rework. This is nothing special. The biggest risk is if the AP computer software won't play nice for some reason on a low percentage of vehicles.

Keep in mind Elon said on twitter that making early adopters "whole" would put the company under. We're talking maybe $78 million to make early adopters whole and they are going to go under???? There's no way they are doing HW3 upgrades for AP2, I question even if AP2.5 will get it frankly.

When they changed the definition of done, and could not realize that revenue, they pretty much weasled out of HW3 upgrades I suspect.

 

[MP3Mike]

Keep in mind Elon said on twitter that making early adopters "whole" would put the company under. We're talking maybe $78 million to make early adopters whole and they are going to go under????

I think you are under estimating the cost of making early adopters whole. He wasn't just talking about the AP/EAP/FSD costs. For example they recently dropped the price of some cars by 40%. That would add up to way more than $78 million.

 

[mongo]

no, it's not. go see ebay pictures. 2.5 and 3 is compatible.

Edit: 2.5 -> 3 is probably compatible. I've not yet seen a real 3 unit.

By extension, you also would not have seen an HW2.0 retrofit version of the HW3 module. So what's with the definitive 'no, it's not' statement?

 

[mongo]

Keep in mind Elon said on twitter that making early adopters "whole" would put the company under. We're talking maybe $78 million to make early adopters whole and they are going to go under???? There's no way they are doing HW3 upgrades for AP2, I question even if AP2.5 will get it frankly.

When they changed the definition of done, and could not realize that revenue, they pretty much weasled out of HW3 upgrades I suspect.

What is the tweet of which you speak?

 

[verygreen]

By extension, you also would not have seen an HW2.0 retrofit version of the HW3 module. So what's with the definitive 'no, it's not' statement?

Color me skeptical that they would make a limited production run of 25k-30k units of hw3 just for the hw2.0 retrofits. With all the involved extra QA and such. Complete with additional software changes (when they could not even be assed to do dashcam/sentry at that - arguably a much easier task)

 

[BinaryField]

Keep in mind Elon said on twitter that making early adopters "whole" would put the company under. We're talking maybe $78 million to make early adopters whole and they are going to go under???? There's no way they are doing HW3 upgrades for AP2, I question even if AP2.5 will get it frankly.

When they changed the definition of done, and could not realize that revenue, they pretty much weasled out of HW3 upgrades I suspect.

The other thing that I find disturbing is that Elon is straight-up saying that the company F-ed over early supporters, yet the apologists are still blaming critics or rushing to buy things. I can't believe what I've been seeing this past week.

 

[tyson]

What is the tweet of which you speak?

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[boonedocks]

FSD Upgrade Price reduced from $5K to $3K in MyTesla Page for Model S

 

[mongo]

Color me skeptical that they would make a limited production run of 25k-30k units of hw3 just for the hw2.0 retrofits. With all the involved extra QA and such. Complete with additional software changes (when they could not even be assed to do dashcam/sentry at that - arguably a much easier task)

Dash cam/sentry rely on different power modes, I'm not sure software could provide good functionality (vampire drain).

 

[BigD0g]

Dash cam/sentry rely on different power modes, I'm not sure software could provide good functionality (vampire drain).

Ummm, no they don't! This is completely false. Dashcam / Sentry mode is all software, if they'd give the AP2 libarries we could haven't today, just it would be greyscale not color, but we can interpolate the colors to fix that.

This is them just not wanting to release grey scale images and tarnish there little product image. Which is even more reason why I think AP3 will never see the light of day for AP2.0

 

[Pale_Rider]

no, it's not. go see ebay pictures. 2.5 and 3 is compatible.

Edit: 2.5 -> 3 is probably compatible. I've not yet seen a real 3 unit.

But all we are really talking about is a extra radar connection right? A $2 splitter and you send the same radar signal to both inputs and you are done. It’s not like an additional cable actually provides any meaning redundancy for the radar system. If you have a radar failure, the odds of it being the cable are pretty low... I just don’t see the need for a totally separate board that needs to be designed and QA’d, any interface differences can seemingly be done with wiring adaptors. Of course I may still be in my disbelief stage of grief. Lol

 

[ChrML]

Judging by the recent news I’m thinking Tesla might attempt to do some FSD on the AP2/2.5 hardware instead, yes. Originally they claimed they could, it has been the past year or so when Elon Musk’s repeated commented suggested HW3 hardware upgrades really were coming...

I've seen this stated multiple times on this forum, but I don't believe this statement is entirely accurate.

I remember watching the AP2.0 unveil and Elon was very clear that the AP2.0 computer was deliberately built to be an easy drop-in replacement.

He said specifically that they believe the AP2.0 computer is good enough for FSD, but in case it should turn out not to be, the computer is built to be easy to replace at a service center.

 

[croman]

By extension, you also would not have seen an HW2.0 retrofit version of the HW3 module. So what's with the definitive 'no, it's not' statement?

3 months maybe, 6 months DEFINITELY.

 

[croman]

I've seen this stated multiple times on this forum, but I don't believe this statement is entirely accurate.

I remember watching the AP2.0 unveil and Elon was very clear that the AP2.0 computer was deliberately built to be an easy drop-in replacement.

He said specifically that they believe the AP2.0 computer is good enough for FSD, but in case it should turn out not to be, the computer is built to be easy to replace at a service center.

Elon has said a lot of things. A lot of them are total bullshit.

EDIT: That being said, no one knows if this particular one was a lie or not. Clearly the computer can be swapped but a retrofit has never been proposed and HW3 is supposedly final and produced.

 

[mongo]

3 months maybe, 6 months DEFINITELY.

FSD features (NoA), not NN so big it needs HW3.

 

[electronblue]

I've seen this stated multiple times on this forum, but I don't believe this statement is entirely accurate.

I remember watching the AP2.0 unveil and Elon was very clear that the AP2.0 computer was deliberately built to be an easy drop-in replacement.

He said specifically that they believe the AP2.0 computer is good enough for FSD, but in case it should turn out not to be, the computer is built to be easy to replace at a service center.

I wasn’t trying to contradict that, I remember the same.

Originally Tesla said — actually for quite a long time — that AP2 computer should be enough while only leaving the door open for the retrofit as you noted. But indeed they were saying originally they did not expect to need the retrofit.

It was during the past year or so that they changed tune to sound like the retrofits indeed are needed and coming. So while it started out as leaning towards ”no retrofits” it then moved to ”yes retrofits”...

Who knows what the status is today though.

 

[mongo]

Ummm, no they don't! This is completely false. Dashcam / Sentry mode is all software, if they'd give the AP2 libarries we could haven't today, just it would be greyscale not color, but we can interpolate the colors to fix that.

This is them just not wanting to release grey scale images and tarnish there little product image. Which is even more reason why I think AP3 will never see the light of day for AP2.0

Speaking hypothetically:
Software needs the hardware to be on. If the power modes on MCU1/AP2 don't allow operation without a huge vampire drain, then the feature is less helpful.

AP2.5 is not full color either, it's missing green which you can back calculate somewhat, but B&W images wouldn't be bad.

 

[electronblue]

Color me skeptical that they would make a limited production run of 25k-30k units of hw3 just for the hw2.0 retrofits. With all the involved extra QA and such. Complete with additional software changes (when they could not even be assed to do dashcam/sentry at that - arguably a much easier task)

I have a bit of a hard time believing Tesla would create retrofits for the vast number of AP2.5 cars while leaving out AP2 — the group whom the biggest promises were arguably made to.

No, that sounds like a suicide move. Either-or seems much more likely. Either FSD ”does not need” HW3 at all and nobody gets retrofits — or both AP2 and AP2.5 computers get upgraded. Upgrading just a portion of the cars would kill the case that ”retrofit is not needed”.

Shipping some compromised FSD software that runs on AP2/2.5 sounds like a much more likely scenario if they want to skimp out on retrofits...

If they are going to retrofit, making the retrofit unit such that wiring is a matter of adapter or such is probably not hard. The hard part is actually retrofitting all those cars...