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HW3
- Thread starter Chancellor32
- Start date
Surely, until FSD becomes a reality with whatever software update, it is irrelevant what hardware is in the car.
Somebody on Reddit says he saw a Model 3 SR+ that has a software limited LR battery.
It looks like Tesla has pulled all the stops to clear the inventory. On 19 Feb 2019, they had 10,848 unsold HW2.5 Model 3s. Here is the full list. I assume, all of these will be gone by the end of this month and they can move on with HW3.0. I would expect them to start HW3.0 Model 3 production with EU/Asia cars because those have long transit times. In each quarter, production starts with destinations furthest away and ends with California.
There is 0% chance any Tesla leaving the factory after 31 Mar 2019 will have HW2.5. Tesla will keep quiet about this for a while. Then we should see a blog post about HW3.0 between 10-17 Apr 2019.
It looks like Tesla has pulled all the stops to clear the inventory. On 19 Feb 2019, they had 10,848 unsold HW2.5 Model 3s. Here is the full list. I assume, all of these will be gone by the end of this month and they can move on with HW3.0. I would expect them to start HW3.0 Model 3 production with EU/Asia cars because those have long transit times. In each quarter, production starts with destinations furthest away and ends with California.
There is 0% chance any Tesla leaving the factory after 31 Mar 2019 will have HW2.5. Tesla will keep quiet about this for a while. Then we should see a blog post about HW3.0 between 10-17 Apr 2019.
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This Right-Hand-Drive Model 3 was spotted today in California. These will definitely have HW3 because if they didn't, buyers would refuse delivery when the car arrives in June 2019 because HW3 will be announced in mid-April. I explained this 3 weeks ago here when I predicted the timing of HW3.
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Agreed. Stop whining if you didn't buy FSD. You didn't buy FSD therefore you don't get FSD benefits. Period.
I like that eh! LEAFS .... Oh I meant Nissan LEAFSI'm from the US, so I had to use google translate to convert to Canadian. Your car is ready for FSD just like the Calgary Flames (aka HW3) and the Ottawa Senators (HW2.5) are both ready to win Hockey games. Both can do it, just one does it better.
Please note, I like Canada, I'm just trying to add a little humour. (see, I even spelled that right for you!)
That is completely opposite of what Musk is saying. By end of 2019 FSD will be feature complete..OK, you say, that doesn't mean runnable. But Musk goes on to say it will work but has the same caveats as NoA and AutoSteer, the driver is still pilot in command and must prove (s)he's paying attention by providing some degree of torque on the steering wheel. He goes on to say by end of 2020 it should be completely autonomous (capable of having driver in back seat reading a book) notwithstanding regulatory approval. That all implies at least Model 3/Model Y hardware.
If, on the other hand, you meant older S and X models will never see FSD...I have to agree with that. This forum now has a different constituency than it had 18 months ago. But you did say snowball's chance in of of Model 3... That is incorrect but both sides can shout at the top of their lungs but we won't know until Dec 31st 2019. You comment implies Elon Musk is FOS.
Ah, you mean like Whamo, Chevy Bolt test car with Mary Barra only occupant in the back seat? That's entirely different technology based on Lidar rather than cameras and radar and sonar. The technology argument is people don't come with lidar, merely depth perception and sight and we drive just fine so long as we can see. Now SAE level 4 merely says drives in conditions an avg driver would be able to drive in. That would be a sighted person. The other argument is Lidar requires well mapped out area. Again, we can shout about this til the cows come home. We won't know for sure until Elon Musk's statement is proven BS and that won't be until 12/31/2019.
diamond.g
Active Member
The general consensus of some folks in the Autonomy subsection is exactly that... (with regards to anything he says dealing with FSD).
You do realize the vast majority of buyers have no idea what HW3 is or means. There is an over generalization about what most people know. None of my friends with a M3 even know what TMC is, they are far more likely to know TMZ however. Many of us live in the Tesla bubble.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
To be fair- he's been overpromising on when teslas will be driving themselves for a number of years now.
The first fully autonomous coast to coast drive was originally supposed to be by end of 2017.
Then end of 2018.
Now maybe 2020?
He's guessing.
He knows they haven't actually solved L5 FSD with vision right now, but continues to believe they will, and just keeps moving the date out a year or two every time he misses the last one.
That's not to say there won't be an L5 system that relies on vision someday-or even that it won't be in a Tesla (or hell even that it won't be in a model of tesla currently on the road).... but expecting it to arrive (or anything to arrive) when Elon Musk tells you it will is... wildly optimistic...based on current track record.
Well...there's that. As I said, I cannot argue that point as it requires 9 more months of software releases. There are still people that feel hell bent sure Tesla will still fold like an old lawn chair. In the last 18 months or so 400,000 people put down good money that they wouldn't. I use autosteer all the time and when on limited access roads NoA all the time. There are 2, maybe 3, known bugs. They all have circumventions. A CEO of a company 1) wouldn't make very public facing statements on futures and, certainly, if they prove categorically wrong, that's career ending.
Correct. Most buyers don't know about HW3 now but they will know about it when Tesla releases their blog post in mid-April because there will be lots of media coverage. Therefore cars they are making now for international orders will definitely have HW3 because these cars will be delivered in June, long after the media coverage about HW3. I found another message where I explained this topic here on 1st March 2019.
In August 2015, Tesla announced the Model S P90D. At the time, deliveries of the Model S P85D hadn't started yet in Hong Kong. Tesla sells lots of cars there. Generally in Asia Tesla is seen as a status symbol for the wealthy but buyers in Hong Kong especially care about owning the latest and greatest version of tech. What happened was, because the P85D was already discontinued before it arrived, there were lots of refused deliveries. After this incident, Tesla learned their lesson and they were much better at timing big hardware changes.
Trust me, if you were buying a Tesla and your car was already discontinued two months before delivery and there was media coverage about the new cars, you would know about it. That's why cars Tesla just started making now for international buyers will have HW3. Production until mid-May will be mostly for international orders because they need to deliver Q2 production within Q2.
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I suspect the reason for that is they neither purchased EAP nor FSD. So it was a technobabble conversation for them.
Independent of the redundancy of the CPUs they would need heaters in the camera wells as well as radar well. I had a 2012 Prius Plugin Advanced that featured Adaptive cruise control (TACC). Whenever there was a sticky snow the radar would go offline. From what people far more 'up' on Tesla and automotive model changes tell us is it will be years before a Model 3 body refresh, for redundant controllers and heated camera wells, let alone a back seat an adult can sit in. I am confident the existing M3 will be fsd as advertised. I don't think I've seen Tesla refer to AP3, just the NVIDIA chip to Tesla plug compatible chip (HW3). If you have references handy, that would be appreciated!
Many people that can buy all these features click and add them , they do not know anything technical. Many people only buy cars "fully loaded". The vocal posters on TMC are not representative of the average consumer, same for many forums. I speak to thousands of EV owners and buyers and the vast majority are engaged at "forum levels".
As opposed to those aspiring to be the next "Mav" I bought the car primarily for FSD now that I am retired. I know too many folks that had their kids, or the police, take posession of their driver license in their mid 70s. I future-proofed our independence and mobility. I had discovered this forum and watched, with interest, the various spreadsheets of who reserved what, ordered when, took delivery when. It was like 1 in 10 ordered EAP and 1 in 15+ ordered FSD. Anecdotally, it would not appear a popular feature.
like all the buyers that knew about the $2K upgrade when Tesla announced it? Wait, there was no communication to owners. Unless it is an email to owners most people don't visit Tesla blogs. Most people care less about any silly hardware upgrades they care about getting what they bought or knowing the feature and the benefit. All of this groupthink is living in the Tesla bubble, Tesla lives there too often as well thinking every owner follows Musk or that not communicating offers directly to the target buyer is a good idea unless of course the intension is not to inform them. This is either absolute incompetence at incredible levels or intentional control of information. Either way a terrible way to treat customers and instill buying confidence toward prospects. Any company that expects customers to follow social media or blogs to get important information is absolutely incompetent at every level.
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So you came to a forum to get useful information for yourself? I think that's part of the reason people visit forums
I'm not sure you future proofed anything any more than someone buys the best AV receiver only to find that in a year the HDMI standard is changed and it can't be upgraded by software and it won't pass 4K TV. Future proofing tech is best done by not doing it and by purchasing what you want to use when it is working and available and then repeating down the road for the next upgrade. Electronics and future proofing rarely go hand in hand.
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I, respectfully disagree with that. I was at Monster.com in 2010. They had a meeting on using social media to build audience and it was going to be the next thing in customer engagement. My question, "what is an 'RT'"? There used to be a company Constant Contact that allowed companies to stay engaged with customers. Yeah, it's really a thing. How do you learn about the next gen Honda mower or Maytag washer? Remember this too in your thinking, Tesla has definitively shunned typical media advertising, Radio/TV/Billboards. They came out of the gate on Social Media. And I am a new-comer to social media.
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