Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I would just tell you that the hardware is good enough but the software is notIf they sold you a car with a the top speed is 250km/h and they later say it only goes 200 km/h but we have an update. However, you only get the update if you need to go that fast.. That doesn't make sense either. You bought something and paid money for it. So you are entitled to get it.
There is no way to prove that the hardware is not good enough. Maybe Tesla just hasn't hired good enough programmers.
I am standing by my prediction. No HW3 upgrades in 2019 definitely, 2020 maybe.Andrej Karpathy said six months ago that Tesla had already developed neural nets that run well on HW3 but require too much computational power for the earlier HW.
“The reason this is important is that it is a common finding in the industry and that we see this as well is that as you make the networks bigger by adding more neurons, the accuracy of all their predictions increases with the added capacity. So, in other words, we are currently at a place where we've trained large neural networks data work very well, but we are not able to deploy them to the fleet due to computational constraints. So all of this will change with an acceleration of the hardware and it's a massive step improvement in the compute capability and the team is incredibly excited to get these networks out there.” Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool
That together with Elon’s prediction that Tesla would be feature complete for FSD by the end of 2019 suggests to me the initial differentiation will come sooner than you predict.