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Hydrogen vs. Battery

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Moreover, CO2 is not that bad. It can be offset by planting more trees.

Um... no.... planting trees is ~99% feel-good and 1% effective. We're adding 40B tons/yr of CO2. A tree can only sequester ~0.003 tons/yr and that's temporary. When the tree dies most of that CO2 is released, it's called 'The Carbon CYCLE' for a reason. We'd need ~13,000,000,000,000 trees. A healthy forest has ~200 trees per acre so you'd need to add >60M square miles of forest to the planet (The Amazon is 2.1M square miles).

The only solution is to stop using fools fuel. Our energy needs to come from wind and solar. If we use BEVs we need ~70% less wind or solar to meet our needs than if we use Hydrogen. That's not a small difference.
 
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Um... no.... planting trees is ~99% feel-good and 1% effective. We're adding 40B tons/yr of CO2. A tree can only sequester ~0.003 tons/yr and that's temporary. When the tree dies most of that CO2 is released, it's called 'The Carbon CYCLE' for a reason. We'd need ~13,000,000,000,000 trees. A healthy forest has ~200 trees per acre so you'd need to add >60M square miles of forest to the planet (The Amazon is 2.1M square miles).

The only solution is to stop using fools fuel. Our energy needs to come from wind and solar. If we use BEVs we need ~70% less wind or solar to meet our needs than if we use Hydrogen. That's not a small difference.
Good, So we all agreed that capturing the biogas/methane in the decomposition cycle of the trees/biomass is good for the environment.

Planting trees next to your house has secondary benefits, as the shade keeps your home cool cutting down the A/C usage. You bring up some interesting information and do some interesting math.
But it seems it is quite simplistic and you base it on may be numbers you heard from someone or somewhere.

First, I never said we have to maintain 40B tonne CO2 (as in US ton of 1000 lbs?) a year and try to absorb it all.
Second, trees and vegetation is the best option to sequester CO2. You seemed to have missed the CO2 absorbed by other plants, such as grasslands and wetlands. Read this link for some details. One has to really read it fully to understand the impact of these.
Storing Carbon in Plants and Trees – How Much CO2 is Absorbed by Trees and Other Vegetation? - Disruptive Environmentalist

* Despite only making up 3% of total land area, wetlands sequester 30% of all soil carbon. (9) Prairie wetlands alone sequester 7.5 tons of carbon per acre.
* Algae (or phytoplankton) absorb approximately 45 to 50 gigatons of carbon per year into their cells. (10)
- (Curious George side note: 50 G ton carbon = 183 G ton CO2)
* In total, grasslands store 343 gigatons of carbon in the vegetation and top one metre of soil, sequestering an average of 0.5 gigatons per year. (5)

You are also wrong on the inevitable carbon cycle. For example, you can cut a fully mature live tree and use the lumber, locking away the carbon and avoiding decomposition. Or bury it in ground.
You seem to be also confusing between new carbon (dug up as fossil fuel) vs. using biogas that is already in the atmosphere. These are vastly different.

While checking on numbers you brought up, I calculated the average American vehicular CO2 emissions.
Infographic: How Americans Commute to Work
* 128.3M commuter by cars/trucks etc. in 2016
* 25 mle each way is average commute
* With a hybrid Camry, that's 1 gallon per day => 19 lbs => less than 5 ton CO2 a year
* For 128 m American commuters, that is mere 660 M tonnes. Nowhere close to 40B tonnes.

This is a tiny fraction of the 40B tonnes/yr you said, and I also verified by googling. So I tried to see where rest of it is coming from.
world_co2.jpg


It turns out power production is the biggest culprit. Wind, solar and LED light bulbs will help. Not electric cars though. Vehicular emission can be easily reduced to almost 50% by hybrids without too much extra mining, that pushes the industrial part up.

TLDR: I don't see any disagreement here.
Planting trees around the house and elsewhere is good for sequestering CO2.
Capturing biogas is also great. The 'C' in methane is already there in methane.
CO2 is 86x less potent as greenhouse gas than CH4; so capturing methane is good.

OK now?
 
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Second, trees and vegetation is the best option to sequester CO2.

No; That's 100% false. The best and ONLY way to keep CO2 levels in check is to kick our fools fuel addiction. Trees are great for habitat and shade NOT reducing CO2 levels. 1 solar panel is more effective than ~50 trees, doesn't require water, can't die, and all the good its done after a 20 year life can't be erased by 1 wild fire.

100% of our energy needs to come from wind, solar or nuclear.
100% of our energy needs to come from wind, solar or nuclear.
100% of our energy needs to come from wind, solar or nuclear.
100% of our energy needs to come from wind, solar or nuclear.

It's impossible to repeat that enough times...... Using Hydrogen as an energy storage medium means we need 2-3x more clean energy....

Planting trees helps mitigate climate change as much as a dog can help build a house. They're great for morale and maybe a well trained one can bring you a tool but you really just need carpenters, masons and electricians. To fight AGW we need more efficient use of energy more solar and more wind.

Or bury it in ground.

It's not that simple. >98% of CO2 absorbed by trees will be back in the atmosphere in a few short centuries. Even buried wood will decompose and the carbon will be released back into the atmosphere. Coal largely no longer forms because bacteria evolved that could break down wood.


Let's look at the absurd math here.... to power a Tesla for ~12k miles/yr and have a net ZERO emissions you need ~10 solar panels OR you can harvest the H2 from CH4 to drive a Mirai and plant ~1k trees then once those trees are mature you need to ensure they don't decompose. What do you suppose is easier? Installing ~10 solar panels or planting, caring for and harvesting 1000 trees (5 acres of forest)???????

There are plenty of great reasons to plant trees.... reducing CO2 ppm just ain't one of them....
 
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Anyone desperately trying to delay the transition to EV's would, and obviously do.

I can't find any logic in this. Spend lots of money on a technology which won't prevail just to delay EV world? I have heard a car maker saying they will make ICE as long as governments allow them. But that's very different from spending billions on it just to delay EVs. Spend 2-3 years of net income just to keep ICE margins for another 5 years? They could just put that money into EV development if that's the future and make more profit overall.
 
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If the 20,000 drayage trucks that access of Port of Los Angeles were in constant operation, that would require about 1.12GW.

The economics would be great for smart charging those trucks. Only 1.12GW average needed, filling 20GWh of batteries. And to think people worry about how the grid will cope.

For reference Los Angeles current electricity demand is about 9.5GW.



1MWh battery, 18 hour operation implies average operating power of just under 56kW, with a C-rate of 0.05r.
Charging at 150kW would be a C-rate of 0.15.
Such a battery would last for a very long time.
Pretty much a dream scenario.



As I noted in my previous post, the Port of Los Angeles is a testing hotbed. Development and grants are just more of the same and aren't anything to get excited about. Only volume deployments matter.



There are like 25,000 fuel cell forklifts in the US, so it's not that unusual.


Not sure what's the dream scenario with the batteries but a chemistry that can handle 1500 charge cycles will end its life in 5 years in a daily used truck. (Tesla warrants their batteries for about 320 charge cycles).
 
I can't find any logic in this. Spend lots of money on a technology which won't prevail just to delay EV world? I have heard a car maker saying they will make ICE as long as governments allow them. But that's very different from spending billions on it just to delay EVs. Spend 2-3 years of net income just to keep ICE margins for another 5 years? They could just put that money into EV development if that's the future and make more profit overall.

Toyota revenue for this year will be ~$270B. ~100% of that is from peddling ICE since they don't make any pure EVs. Toyota has invested ~$1B in Hydrogen. Even if it only delays the EV inflection point a month they would have gotten their money back....

Not only is H2 FUD... but it also sucks a lot of the oxygen out of the room so to speak. CARB has spent a lot of money subsidizing H2 stations that could have gone to expanding EV infrastructure.
 
Toyota revenue for this year will be ~$270B. ~100% of that is from peddling ICE since they don't make any pure EVs. Toyota has invested ~$1B in Hydrogen. Even if it only delays the EV inflection point a month they would have gotten their money back....

Not only is H2 FUD... but it also sucks a lot of the oxygen out of the room so to speak. CARB has spent a lot of money subsidizing H2 stations that could have gone to expanding EV infrastructure.


Toyota invested 1B? How many times? Hyundai is putting 6.7B in it so that 1B is way off.

Hyundai makes massive $6.7B bet on hydrogen - Roadshow
 
Toyota invested 1B? How many times? Hyundai is putting 6.7B in it so that 1B is way off.

Hyundai makes massive $6.7B bet on hydrogen - Roadshow

Toyota has invested ~$1B in fuel cells so far...

That's $6.7B by 2030 or ~$670M/yr vs >$200B/yr in revenue for <1%.... my bet would be that a small fraction of that is actually spent on researching fuel cells.

Like I've said... this needs to happen before using H2 for cars makes ANY sense...
  1. >90% of H2 (ALL H2) is sourced from H2O NOT CH4
  2. Connected to #1; Electrolysis is cheap enough to use Surplus Wind or Solar (Operate at a CF <20%)
  3. Connected to #2; >50% of H2 is sourced from SURPLUS wind or solar
  4. Home electrolysis is a thing OR it's a PHEV
We're at least ~30 years out if not more....
 
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Toyota has invested ~$1B in fuel cells so far...

That's $6.7B by 2030 or ~$670M/yr vs >$200B in revenue for <1%.... my bet would be that a small fraction of that is actually spent on researching fuel cells.

Like I've said... this needs to happen before using H2 for cars makes ANY sense...
  1. >90% of H2 (ALL H2) is sourced from H2O NOT CH4
  2. Connected to #1; Electrolysis is cheap enough to use Surplus Wind or Solar (Operate at a CF <20%)
  3. Connected to #2; >50% of H2 is sourced from SURPLUS wind or solar
  4. Home electrolysis is a thing OR it's a PHEV
We're at least ~30 years out if not more....

Comparing it to total revenues makes little sense since car makers work on tiny margins.

As for your list:
1. Applies for passenger cars only. Other vehicles can transfer sooner.
However for convenience passenger cars can switch sooner since great amount of the population doesn't have charging possibilities at home.

2. equipment price is inverse proportional to number of units sold

3. or the other way, H2 vehicles can initiate further solar/wind investments

4. Not needed. PHEVs possible. Many use fuel cells as range extenders.
 
There are like 25,000 fuel cell forklifts in the US, so it's not that unusual.

Those are forklifts, very often working inside warehouses, where you can't use diesel trucks.

If you have a requirement

Not sure what's the dream scenario with the batteries but a chemistry that can handle 1500 charge cycles will end its life in 5 years in a daily used truck. (Tesla warrants their batteries for about 320 charge cycles).

Batteries aren't really rated for cycles, they're rated for cycles with expected charge/discharge rate.
A battery being cycled at 0.15/0.056 is having an easy life.
That's like only ever charging an electric car on AC, and then only driving it very slowly.
 
Comparing it to total revenues makes little sense since car makers work on tiny margins.

As for your list:
1. Applies for passenger cars only. Other vehicles can transfer sooner.
However for convenience passenger cars can switch sooner since great amount of the population doesn't have charging possibilities at home.

2. equipment price is inverse proportional to number of units sold

3. or the other way, H2 vehicles can initiate further solar/wind investments

4. Not needed. PHEVs possible. Many use fuel cells as range extenders.

Even from a profit perspective $670M/yr isn't much and they can write off those expenses plus much of that R&D is subsidized by their government.

You're missing the point with #1... we have a 10B kg/yr H2 deficit that needs to be filled before it makes any sense to be wasting it in passenger cars. We've been making electrolysis units for >40 years... it's not likely the cost is going to drop and there's already market pressure due to the afore mentioned 10B kg/yr deficit.

I would argue that #4 IS needed to get FCEVs beyond being just a novelty. Look at the mess in CA with the H2 shortage.
 
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Even from a profit perspective $670M/yr isn't much and they can write off those expenses plus much of that R&D is subsidized by their government.

You're missing the point with #1... we have a 10B kg/yr H2 deficit that needs to be filled before it makes any sense to be wasting it in passenger cars. We've been making electrolysis units for >40 years... it's not likely the cost is going to drop and there's already market pressure due to the afore mentioned 10B kg/yr deficit.

I would argue that #4 IS needed to get FCEVs beyond being just a novelty. Look at the mess in CA with the H2 shortage.

US. Does not apply worldwide. Some countries have reached their limits how much renewables the network can tolerate.

This explains Toyota's fuel cell investment much better: Japan’s vision to realize a “Hydrogen-Based Society” | Insights | DLA Piper Global Law Firm
"Energy security and self-sufficiency rate - Japan depends on overseas fossil fuels for about 94% of its primary energy supply."
 
US. Does not apply worldwide. Some countries have reached their limits how much renewables the network can tolerate.

This explains Toyota's fuel cell investment much better: Japan’s vision to realize a “Hydrogen-Based Society” | Insights | DLA Piper Global Law Firm
"Energy security and self-sufficiency rate - Japan depends on overseas fossil fuels for about 94% of its primary energy supply."

.... which BEVs can help with but NOT H2 until the cost of electrolysis drops by ~90%. BEV charging can be controlled to match wind or solar availability but electrolysis is FAR too expensive to operate like that. No one is going to spend $200M on a 3k kg/day electrolysis plant and reduce output 80% to match wind or solar surpluses.... Charging a BEV <

HVDC is going to be a FAR cheaper and FAR more efficient option for Japan than shipping energy as Hydrogen......

A single HVDC line can deliver >200GWh/day while a H2 Super-tanker would only carry ~10GWh of energy.

We're still making ~10B kg/yr of H2 from CH4 using steam reforming... until we're using H2O instead of CH4 to fill our H2 requirements how does it make ANY sense to use it in cars???? Using electricity in BEVs makes sense even though we still use fools fuel to make electricity because BEVs are efficient enough that total energy use DECLINES ~50%. That's not true with FCEVs. Best case is break even and more likely it's actually LESS efficient.
 
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Tesla warrants their batteries for about 320 charge cycles

They don't stop working at cycle 321 though ...

Plenty of cars that have done well over the 100,000 mile warranty, so actual real world figures available. Looks like < 7% degradation at that point. My own car did 90,000 miles over 3.25 years and had a bit less than 7% degradation.
 
A single HVDC line can deliver >200GWh/day while a H2 Super-tanker would only carry ~10GWh of energy.
The proposed HVDC line between Darwin, Australia and Singapore is 3 GW but I have read of other projects that envision 40 GW cables.

FORTY GW. Of electricity, not oil that loses 2/3 of its energy in conversion to electricity.

HVDC has all the appearances of a no-brainer
 
However for convenience passenger cars can switch sooner since great amount of the population doesn't have charging possibilities at home.
A greater amount of the population, nearing 100%, doesn't have access to hydrogen at home or anywhere. Oh, are you talking about future build out? Well why wouldn't they have charging possibilities anywhere they park their vehicles in the future? Might need to change your screen name to FUDbot.
 
It's so funny to see so much Toyota bashing here. Toyota has saved more CO2 with its Prius and other hybrids directly, besides indirect savings from hybrids developed by other car makers who were motivated by Prius hybrids, than any other automaker.
Guess which major automaker is quite close to meeting the EU emission targets next year?
This is from Jan 2017. By now, it has saved even more.
Worldwide Sales of Toyota Hybrids Surpass 10 Million Units
toyota prius.JPG

EV is only zero emission if we ignore the extra CO2-e of the batteries and the source of the electrons.
The EVs also force more power generation, that hybrids don't.
Case 1: You put up solar panels (if they work in your area) and drive an EV. You are taking away the clean solar power that could reduce dirty power in someone else's house.
Case 2: You put up solar panels (if it works) and drive a Toyota hybrid. You cleaned up the grid, and also reduced your own car's CO2 emission by half. Also, you avoided the extra CO2-e of the big battery.

So what is better? As I showed earlier, in many states in US (e.g. W. Virginina), an Ioniq hybrid beats the identical Ioniq EV any day of the year; cold or warm.
I think, if Model S had a hybrid version, it would also save more CO2 than itself.
This is more true in developing countries where grid is often the biggest source of emission.

if our governments didn't divert funds to EVs so much, Toyota and others would have sold over 200 M hybrids by now. No big incentives needed.
 
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