Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Why?
A number of states already allow automated cars and most of the rest are at least looking into regulations for it.
Elon explicitly said Tesla would cover the cars in the Tesla network.
I hope to make $10-30K per year for my Model 3
- Thread starter ElectricLee
- Start date
Why?
A number of states already allow automated cars and most of the rest are at least looking into regulations for it.
Elon explicitly said Tesla would cover the cars in the Tesla network.
ammulder
'98 GS400 -> P3D+
No they're not. How many people here would be surprised if after 2.9 years, they say "actually, since the Tesla Network hasn't received regulatory approval, you're allowed to buy out the lease after all."
And then how many people would be surprised if after another year or two, they recant, and people find a forum to throw a fit on?
Great, so now people on the street will wave at me, thinking I'm their Uber/Lyft driver?
Your numbers are terrible and you might need to look for a new job. You should be getting about $1/mile after Uber/Lyft take their share. After expenses you should be looking at $.80/mile. I would think that people would not tip with Tesla so that might be a little high.
Based on that, your car might have to go 40,000 miles (~100 miles a day) to make $37,500 for you. Subtract out $7,500 for expenses and you have $30,000. Even if it is way off and you only make $10,000 per year, you will have a free car.
Even if the crazy Bulgarian wants to buy his 1,000 cars, Tesla is making money upfront and then money on each ride. If Uber is worth $100 billion than Tesla should add tens of billions in value to their stock price.
An interesting article, right or wrong the author brings up a good point to think about :
Council Post: Could Autonomous Vehicles Be Worse For Cities Than Regular Cars?
Council Post: Could Autonomous Vehicles Be Worse For Cities Than Regular Cars?
Grendal
SpaceX Moderator
You could probably get video of all the disgusting things they did in it though...
Even better - buy one car, use it to fly to Mars, then sell it after you return.
Even better - start your own YouTube channel streaming the s*hit people do inside your Mars-bound cars!
What, you don't believe Model 3 will auto-pilot to Mars?
Why not!?
Didn't you buy into robo-taxi concept without any proof either!
a
SoccerMan94043
Member
Those are all very small tests and they aren't going well right now.
Report: Tests Show Fully Autonomous Vehicles Not Ready for Public Roads
Uh, I think you missed the entire point of the presentation. Tesla can only make 700,000 cars a year for the world. Teslas are the only cars that can do this and many of the cars are owned by people who won’t rent them. There WILL be a supply issue if this goes live and you can make $30k/yr/car. There will be 0 used Teslas for sale under $40k and a waiting list for the new ones.
No, they are both selling $10 rides for $8. They are losing a ton.The only people making good money with Uber or Lyft are Uber and Lyft !
SammichLover
Banned
@LCR1 lives in Houston, according to his account details. The market for ride share is brutal in Houston, as per a discussion I had with an Uber/Lift driver that had moved to Houston from California. So you might be right with your prescription, but that's a regional thing rather than an LCR1 thing.
TT97
Active Member
Tesla already has a Supercharger Fair Use Policy for any car sold after 12/15/17 that they will not honor free supercharging for commercial uses.
Privacy & Legal | Tesla
I am assuming their Tesla Network program will follow the same rules.
@LCR1 lives in Houston, according to his account details. The market for ride share is brutal in Houston, as per a discussion I had with an Uber/Lift driver that had moved to Houston from California. So you might be right with your prescription, but that's a regional thing rather than an LCR1 thing.
It's obviously a national thing if even Tesla is quoting 65 cents. Look up the research on ridesharing, even national, you're not getting close to $1/mile. San Fransisco is a special case compared to Houston and that's it. D.C up to Boston is above average but every other place is near or below Houston levels; San Diego, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Denver, Portland, Orlando, etc. are all on the level of Houston. It's like Tesla snagged Central California statistics and and ignored the rest of the country. And places like San Fran limit the number of rideshare drivers so all the people with Model 3s will be put on a waiting list, you really think the people already licensed by the city are going to give up their spot, or do you think they'll just buy a model 3 and leave everyone else not already licensed out in the cold. Outside of a handful of cities the numbers literally do not add up and Tesla is being just as shady as everyone else for releasing unrealistic numbers and not specifying they could only apply to a select market.
SammichLover
Banned
Oh almost certainly this was the case. They are based there after all.
But it isn't just SF (notice that TT97 is in LA).I can't say I've dug that far through it but Uber Revenue and Usage Statistics (2018) seems to suggest that Houston is near the bottom for being a driver. It was explained to me that there's basically never any multiplier in Houston for starters, and being Houston everything is spaced out so you're going to get hammered on deadhead miles all the time.
Oh almost certainly this was the case. They are based there after all.
I can't say I've dug that far through it but Uber Revenue and Usage Statistics (2018) seems to suggest that Houston is near the bottom for being a driver. It was explained to me that there's basically never any multiplier in Houston for starters, and being Houston everything is spaced out so you're going to get hammered on deadhead miles all the time.
There's always multipliers, during rush hour or during one of the many events, pro sports games going on. Deadhead miles are made up by the longer trips and even Tesla calculated on 50% loaded miles, the problem is the market is saturated. Just sitting at my desk during my real job I see 6 active drivers within one block, and I'm don't even work in a business district. A place like San Fran and some of the east coast markets, they require full licensing and cap the number of drivers, reduce supply and prices go up. So even if the robotaxi comes alive new Tesla owners can't just throw their cars into the market, existing rideshare drivers will have first dibs, you really think they'll give up their spot or you think they'll get an model 3 and leave "you " on the waiting list.
To me it comes down to Tesla being disingenuous about all of this, just like every other company, you know something Tesla and the cult following claims they're nothing like. Is it possible to make a *sugar* ton of money as a robo taxi? hell yes it is, but it's not going to apply to 90+% of the country and it'll be for a select few people. Companies will buy fleets of Model 3s and push Joe Blow out. existing cab companies will replace their drivers and continue on with their day, again, pushing out John Doe. We already know Uber has self driving program and it's actually in service with a host of problems, you really think Uber doesn't have engineers working on this just as much as Tesla?
Uber literally controls 100% share in some markets as Lyft doesn't operate there, and in markets where they coexist Uber still has 60-80% market share. Lyft has been around for years and I talk to friends, or people I pick up in Uber, that don't even know Lyft exists after years in the market. How long do you think it will take Tesla to get into the market? Uber is now a noun and verb used to describe ridesharing whether or not your in a Uber, Lyft, Ding, etc. Hell Uber now does commercial freight, They have this market on lock down and it's take years for Lyft to chip away at that. Telsa not only has to engineer and test FSD cars but they have to market their rideshare service, Uber who already commands the market spent $500 million on one ad campaign last year, does Telsa have that kind of capital to burn? Sure word of mouth works for car sales, but again, people still don't know lyft exists and they spend million upon millions in advertising. Now Tesla is going to have to find out how to advertise Tesla rideshare without confusing people in the market that it's an advertisement to buy a car.
All I'm saying is Tesla's presentation about robotaixi was disingenuous at best and probably intentional deception on some level.
Uber literally controls 100% share in some markets as Lyft doesn't operate there, and in markets where they coexist Uber still has 60-80% market share. Lyft has been around for years and I talk to friends, or people I pick up in Uber, that don't even know Lyft exists after years in the market. How long do you think it will take Tesla to get into the market? Uber is now a noun and verb used to describe ridesharing whether or not your in a Uber, Lyft, Ding, etc. Hell Uber now does commercial freight, They have this market on lock down and it's take years for Lyft to chip away at that. Telsa not only has to engineer and test FSD cars but they have to market their rideshare service, Uber who already commands the market spent $500 million on one ad campaign last year, does Telsa have that kind of capital to burn? Sure word of mouth works for car sales, but again, people still don't know lyft exists and they spend million upon millions in advertising. Now Tesla is going to have to find out how to advertise Tesla rideshare without confusing people in the market that it's an advertisement to buy a car.
All I'm saying is Tesla's presentation about robotaixi was disingenuous at best and probably intentional deception on some level.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That's impossible if Tesla refuses to sell discounted fleet vehicles (and given they've got retail customers for every car they can build so far that's likely.... GM/Ford/etc only sell discounted fleet vehicles to cab companies because they have more production capacity than customers otherwise- Tesla doesn't.
Also the economics of buying a fleet of $50,000 Teslas vs. a fleet of ~$20,000 Priuses with human drivers is a thing.
Lastly there's the dispatch issue. If the Tesla method requires using the Tesla app... the cab company is no longer a cab company. They can't do their own calls or dispatch.
Far as anybody can tell- mostly they have people who stole things from Waymo- so much so they settled in court for north of 400 million dollars in payment to them.
Ubers robotaxis are certainly not in service though. Only Waymos are. In one specific small part of Arizona only, and still with a human backup driver.
Which markets does Uber have 100% share in?
Their share overall in the US has been dropping pretty bad last couple of years... it was over 80% start of 2017, it was down to the high 60s by end of 2018.
That's the opposite trend you'd see of a company with a "locked down" market.
They spent 500 million last year on ONE ad campaign and LOST a ton of market share? That makes your argument look even worse about the "locked down" market thing.
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