Is Electrify America a scam for EV's?

[RubberToe]

A lot of the EA stations aren't even utilized very much. Here is a link to an appendix of their Q3-2019 report:

https://newspress-electrifyamerica....fyAmericaReportAppendicesCaliforniaPublic.pdf

Page 18 shows the public DCFC utilization. And have a look at this station that is somewhere along the US-101 corridor. It has 8 chargers, been in operation since 5-31-19, and had only a single charging session during the entire 3rd quarter

 

[Eno Deb]

A lot of the EA stations aren't even utilized very much.

Yep, but neither were Tesla's chargers in the early years.

 

[miimura]

A lot of the EA stations aren't even utilized very much. Here is a link to an appendix of their Q3-2019 report:

https://newspress-electrifyamerica.s3.amazonaws.com/documents/original/373-2019Q3ElectrifyAmericaReportAppendicesCaliforniaPublic.pdf

Page 18 shows the public DCFC utilization. And have a look at this station that is somewhere along the US-101 corridor. It has 8 chargers, been in operation since 5-31-19, and had only a single charging session during the entire 3rd quarter

The EA site at the Novato Fair Shopping Center has had chronic problems. I don't know what the problem is, but most of the time when I browse through the EA app, it shows that site as Temporarily Unavailable. Yesterday it was Unavailable, today, by some miracle, it shows as available with 3 ports out of 16 showing an Error state. The rest are Ready and none are in use. Describing this site as "in Operation since 5-31-19" is a bit of a stretch since it has probably been inoperable 75% of the time.

 

[miimura]

I have one CHAdeMO equipped vehicle that I take on trips a couple times per year. Yes, the DCFCs that I use with that car are more expensive than home charging and more expensive than Supercharging, but it's still worth it because 90%-95% of my energy comes from my home Off-Peak electricity. Comparing the cost of road trip charging to gasoline is not fair because you're saving so much when you charge at home. Sure, if you want to compare taking your electric car on the road trip versus renting a vehicle, that makes sense, but you had better count the cost of the rental itself in the total calculation.

Overall, I am happy to pay a premium for road trip charging because it allows me to take those trips with my EV. We have been ICE free since April 2015. The only time I pump gas is when I have to fly somewhere and rent a car. For my next family vacation, I'm going to try to rent an EV at my destination.

 

[RubberToe]

The EA site at the Novato Fair Shopping Center has had chronic problems. I don't know what the problem is, but most of the time when I browse through the EA app, it shows that site as Temporarily Unavailable. Yesterday it was Unavailable, today, by some miracle, it shows as available with 3 ports out of 16 showing an Error state. The rest are Ready and none are in use. Describing this site as "in Operation since 5-31-19" is a bit of a stretch since it has probably been inoperable 75% of the time.

I originally started the VW Dieselgate EA thread that looked in detail at the consent agreement. I thought I remember seeing there being significant penalties if any sites were down for more than 24 hours. This was done to insure that sites weren't deployed then left non-functional. It sounds like that might be happening?

RT

 

[RubberToe]

 

[VinnyS]

No question EA chargers aren't cheap. But EVgo isn't either. But there is going to be a big difference in pricing when one charging network is designed to be for profit compared to one that is for the convenience of customers. And then you have the case with Greenlots. Greenlots is far cheaper than EVgo or EA and right now seems to be turning off most of their DCFC in North Carolina. And the downtime on many Greenlots chargers is measured in months, a few like Cherokee, NC or Gatlinburg, TN have not been working well in years. So maybe they didn't charge enough to keep their network maintained.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The bottom line for fast charging networks is that most utilities charge too much in demand charges.

Normal industry is able to pay high demand charges because electricity is only one of many expenses an industrial customer has, and their peak demand charge is near their average usage amount.

But an EV charge network is quite different. Electricity costs are the dominant cost for the network. And a new charge network generally doesn't have high utilization for each location, so the demand charges end up costing a lot more to the company.

There is a valid argument to be made for a carve out for EV charging networks from utility demand charges. It will be interesting to see if any regulator agrees.

 

[Fredneck]

The bottom line for fast charging networks is that most utilities charge too much in demand charges.

Normal industry is able to pay high demand charges because electricity is only one of many expenses an industrial customer has, and their peak demand charge is near their average usage amount.

But an EV charge network is quite different. Electricity costs are the dominant cost for the network. And a new charge network generally doesn't have high utilization for each location, so the demand charges end up costing a lot more to the company.

There is a valid argument to be made for a carve out for EV charging networks from utility demand charges. It will be interesting to see if any regulator agrees.

I doubt the regulators will force anything on the utilities. There is no compelling reason to do so. What can be done is for the charging network to adjust pricing according to costs. We have toll roads around Washington that vary rates according to traffic density. Either the rates can be real time adjusted or fixed times could be adopted like electric TOU billing.

Regulators will need to adjust regulations that prevent from billing by kWh in some regions. EVs are a new area and there is no reason to restrict them in this way.

 

[Fredneck]

Yep, but neither were Tesla's chargers in the early years.

Yes, Tesla cars use them infrequently for sure. There just aren't many other EVs with the exception of the Leaf which isn't used as much for trips. I know one Leaf owner who has had to level 2 charge to make it home after a long day of work driving. Charging will happen, but it will take time. Without manufacturers getting more involved it will be like the introduction of color TV. They didn't make many programs in color because not many people had color TV sets and not many people paid the extra money for color TV sets because there weren't many color programs to watch.

For the next three or four years that will be Tesla's big advantage, the charging network. But they need to pour more money into it to maintain a clear advantage and not develop a charging station gap. Not only is having charging stations widely visible a competitive advantage and a means of advertising (for Tesla anyway), it is an enabler for many consumers who won't think of buying such a new technology until the charging solution is very widely available. It doesn't matter that 99% of all EV charging happens at home or at work. The average person doesn't understand that. They need to see charging the way they are used to seeing gas stations. At least the first half of the town need to see charging to get them to buy a ticket to the Royal Nonesuch. Then tickets can be sold to the other half of the town.

 

[David99]

I agree the prices are too high. Demand charges are BS IMHO. Once the infrastructure to supply the power is in place, there is no reason having to pay for it again and again when using it. In that context it is also important to know that part of the subsidies/money that is directed to support EV charging infrastructure is allocated to infrastructure buildout. The utilities have received money for exactly that. Demand charges are a cash cow for the utilities. They will cling on to that as long as they can. Lawmakers will have to step in to get rid of them. On the positive side, it makes battery storage much more cost effective.

OTOH the average person does not take a lot of road trips. The majority of driving is done local and from/to work. If the average person does 3 or 4 road trips a year that each cost $35 more than a gas car would, no big deal. The savings over driving an EV is much more.

Personally, I drive between 4 k and 10 k miles a month, mostly on superchargers. Having a Tesla with free supercharging is a huge deal for me. It saves me a lot of money. With the prices that EA and EVgo offers currently, I can't see myself getting a different EV.

 

[Eno Deb]

Here's an interesting article (and whitepaper) about the economics of DC fast chargers:

Analysis: How Demand Charges Impact Electric Vehicle Fast Charging Infrastructure | Energy Central

Looks like it is currently almost impossible to break even on stations that have more than a couple of 50kW chargers due to demand charges (which is probably why most providers except Tesla and EA only put one or two chargers in most locations).

 

[RubberToe]

Batteries for DCFC sites could end up being a pretty good business, and Tesla is already in on it. Avoid demand charges by topping off your megapack at night via a slow charge to keep demand charges to a minimum. Tap into the megapack anytime needed during the day to avoid demand charges. This is from the EA latest report:

 

[Fredneck]

I agree the prices are too high. Demand charges are BS IMHO. Once the infrastructure to supply the power is in place, there is no reason having to pay for it again and again when using it. In that context it is also important to know that part of the subsidies/money that is directed to support EV charging infrastructure is allocated to infrastructure buildout. The utilities have received money for exactly that. Demand charges are a cash cow for the utilities. They will cling on to that as long as they can. Lawmakers will have to step in to get rid of them. On the positive side, it makes battery storage much more cost effective.

I don't think you understand what it takes to build the infrastructure. Utilities aren't like unregulated companies. Their profit is regulated. Their capital costs need to be paid for by profit to assure a given return on investment (ROI). If they need to build some level of distribution to provide adequate power for a small percentage of time, they either have to charge extra to the customers who drive that peak capacity or they would have to charge everyone with higher kWh rates.

OTOH the average person does not take a lot of road trips. The majority of driving is done local and from/to work. If the average person does 3 or 4 road trips a year that each cost $35 more than a gas car would, no big deal. The savings over driving an EV is much more.

Personally, I drive between 4 k and 10 k miles a month, mostly on superchargers. Having a Tesla with free supercharging is a huge deal for me. It saves me a lot of money. With the prices that EA and EVgo offers currently, I can't see myself getting a different EV.

My concern is the utilities will see increased consumption on winter nights which I expect drives the residential distribution peaks because of the heavy load when heat pumps can't produce and direct electric heating is used. Add 7 kW of car charging to a large percentage of homes and I expect the utilities will need to up their residential distribution capacity with attendant increase in distribution charges. But this likely won't be needed if EV charging is coordinated. Most users don't need a fully charged vehicle all the time just needing enough to get to work and back with a reasonable reserve. A means of coordinating charging would prevent any given area from overloading the distribution network and minimize the need for increased distribution capacity.

Oh yeah, +1 on the free Supercharging. I Supercharge pretty much all the time because charging at home doesn't do much for my driving routine.

 

[nativewolf]

We're looking at getting our first EV next year so I was comparing the Model Y to the Mach-E on abetterrouteplanner.com. I ran a trip from Arizona to Houston, TX (1200 miles one way) since this is a trip we are looking at doing to visit family. The charging cost on Electrify America seemed ridiculously high so I ran some numbers to see how it compares to equivalent gas vehicles.

AZ to Houston, TX (1200 miles one way)
Tesla Model Y LR AWD- 2 hours 25 minutes charging ($38.00)
Mach-E Premium AWD- 3 hours 55 minutes charging ($216.00)
25mpg Crossover equivalent- 1200 miles/25= 48 gallons*$3.00gallon= ($144.00)

I also ran Audi E-tron ($74 more than gas), Rivian R1S ($79 more than gas).

Am I missing something? My biggest worry is that non-Tesla manufacturers are jumping on Electrify America network and that is going to make people think that EVs are too expensive to take road trips. On the other hand, It's crazy how cheap Teslas are on road trips!

Thanks, very interesting.

 

[nativewolf]

A minor note that might affect how DC charging costs appear on various networks:

The reason Tesla DC charging looks "cheap" is that Tesla has strategic reasons to subsidize it; it costs Tesla more than they are charging us (at least now - they could raise their prices, although they say they won't raise them higher than their actual costs. That could still get them over the cost of gas, depending on gas prices and Tesla's choice for a payback schedule. But I am sure Tesla is aware of the optics and is trying to keep their prices below gas prices).

Other manufacturers won't go to the same lengths as Tesla until they are serious about volume, but even with low-volume vehicles many do some subsidizing to sweeten the deal. Often they use a program like "2 years of free charging". Ford may offer something like that on the Mustang, especially since they intend it to be a volume car (joining the Model 3 and the 2nd-gen LEAF as the only examples of that) - but they may not have to in their first year, as the Mustang a great offering that will be (hopefully just for the first year!) limited to 50k units by battery availability, so maybe (?) they can get by without doing anything at first. I am sure they will be watching their reservation deposits to help them decide.

I don't think 2 years is long enough for DC charging to be notably cheaper than now after the program runs out; I would guess it will take more like 5-10 years. But most consumers weigh up-front costs far higher than far-off costs, so this has been a good incentive for other manufacturers to move their non-volume (i.e. compliance, conquest, defense and halo) EVs.

Not going to disagree but I have no idea how much it costs tesla, electricity costs from my house are much cheaper than the electrify america rates, they are cheaper than gas by a decent amount. Tesla should be buying power wholesale and cheaper still.

 

[miimura]

Batteries for DCFC sites could end up being a pretty good business, and Tesla is already in on it. Avoid demand charges by topping off your megapack at night via a slow charge to keep demand charges to a minimum. Tap into the megapack anytime needed during the day to avoid demand charges.

From what I've seen, commercial rates don't vary that much by time of day. So, all you need to do is continuously trickle charge the batteries and dole out the energy that the fast chargers need so you minimize the demand charge. Tesla has algorithms in place already in their Powerpack controller to minimize demand charges.

 

[nativewolf]

Very interesting thread and I think that the down station time is certainly a point worthy of investigation and should be brought to the attention of the DOJ, Feds and California & NY which have active AG offices. There is a consent decree filed in federal court. It would be just like VW to be ignoring it.

 

[ChadS]

Tesla should be buying power wholesale and cheaper still.

That's a common assumption that drives a lot of questions like that asked by the OP. But as many posts in this thread have pointed out, even if you ignore the massive infrastructure costs and operation costs that DC stations must recoup, commercial electricity costs for a DC station are very different than those for an AC outlet at your house.

It's because of the difference between energy and power. Service to your house has limited power, so you are just charged for energy. It is probably true that commercial entities get a small discount on energy. But commercial users are charged for power as well, and they can be charged a LOT. You can see that power and energy are very different if you try to charge at an AC outlet while on a road trip - it takes freaking forever, even though you are putting the same amount of energy in to your battery. DC charging is MUCH faster and MUCH more desirable precisely because it uses far more power (a 3 can charge at up to 11kW at home, but up to 250kW at a Supercharger - which is more than most homes can consume even with EVERYTHING turned on). If you have several DC chargers at a single site, holy cow can they use a lot of power. The peak power demands are the most expensive ones for utilities to cover, so they bill a lot for high power use to discourage it.

This is why Tesla wants to spend a lot of money to put batteries at most Superchargers. The energy consumed from the utility will be the same, but they can fill the batteries at low-demand times, and dispense it at high-demand times, and so avoid some of the demand charges.

 

[cwerdna]

FordPass is obviously for the Mach-E, so I'm not sure what your rant is all about and what it has to do with EA.

Ford wasn't serious about EVs let alone DC FCing. It took until gen 2 (model year 2017+) of FFE (which is now dead) for them to even have a DC FCable vehicle.

Look at how many FFE's sold each year at Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard: Historical Charts. And look at the numbers being thrown around back then.
Ford sets 2011 electric Focus 2011 production target at 10,000-20,000 units
Ford Electrifies The Focus

According to the Detroit News, however, the electric Focus will be seen much more in 2012 than in 2011. Sue Cischke, a vice president of environmental affairs, said, "We had always said 2011, which we'll still do, but I think you'll see more of the concentrated volume in 2012. Right now we're getting ready to provide a little bit slower entry."

The volume in 2011 is likely to be pretty small, though for 2012 the company is promising a volume somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000 units, in rough parity with the Leaf and Chevy Volt. If there's more demand, they'll ramp up.

Dave Finnegan, Ford's EV marketing manager, wouldn't tell me a whole lot. "The volume ramp-up is what we see happening in 2012," he said. "It's not delayed or anything like that." The next step is the debut of the production-ready car, and that's "forthcoming in the not-too-distant future."

In 2012, in the US, 680 FFEs were sold. For 2013, 1738. They've not had a single year where they sold/leased 2000 Focus Electrics.

From the below, it looks like gen 2 (model year 2017) FFE didn't even ship until late 2016. This was Ford's only US market consumer BEV that could be DC FCed and it's dead.
Updated 2017 Ford Focus Electric: 100-Mile Range, DC Fast Charging
2017 Ford Focus Electric Goes Longer, Gets DC Fast Charging – News – Car and Driver

This is why I'm eyeing Ford's US market BEV efforts with skepticism, given their track record.