I am wondering: should I (can I) pay for FSD now so that I get the HW3 upgrade? I love EAP as it is with my model 3. Would my experience possibly be significantly better with HW3? Can anyone share thoughts on what HW3 is and how it might change the user experience, for example with regard to highway driving or other aspects?
1. AFAIK you can still buy the off-menu FSD option post-purchase, but for how long that will remain the case is questionable. Also, it is most likely to become more expensive as time progresses.
2. It is up in the air at the moment as to what HW3 will bring, or rather when.
3. Musk has predicted that it *should*, with the addition and refinement of future software, suffice to bring a HW2.5 vehicle up to L5 FSD autonomy (no driver needed) by end of 2020 with regulations catching up by 2023, whereas Tesla has given no official timeline.
4. They will inevitably release the new FSD features in stages, possibly starting from summer 2019, still leaving the driver legally responsible for supervision of the vehicle, same as for current L2 AP, until all features can knit together into a unified FSD and it has been road-tested for several billion miles in the fleet. At some intermediate stage along the way to L5 FSD, EAP may be declared e.g. a Highway-qualified L3/L4 system where the driver can be disengaged and the owner's insurance picks up the tab for any errors in the AI's judgement [Musk has declared that Tesla aims to avoid all liability forever].
5. If this vision all works out flawlessly, by 2023 you will be able to send your car to autonomously pick up passengers and ferry them wherever. The car will in theory do everything a human driver would need to do on public roads, in a statistically safer fashion.
6. However, Tesla and flawless are words rarely found in the same sentence, as to date their execution of plans has been, to put it charitably, uneven.
7. It remains to be seen whether the raw processing power of HW3 combined with their software design will be up to the task of L5 FSD. If it transpires not, a >=HW4 will become necessary.
8. Then the fitness of Tesla's HW2.5 sensor suite must be called into question -- problems here include:
A) The forward radar is of such low resolution that at highway speeds it cannot distinguish a fire-truck parked in your lane from the guardrails along the roadside, so the signal is ignored and the system relies solely on visual recognition, which thus far has resulted in several smashes and deaths.
B) The forward cameras may be partially blinded if facing into a low sun. Without sensor redundancy, e.g. LiDAR or radar which function reliably across the whole range of operating speeds, this spells trouble.
C) The cameras in general have a relatively low resolution. Competitors are planning to use ones x4 better, hence can detect detail at greater distances.
D) This is all the more relevant due to the fact that Tesla lacks rear corner radars for reliably detecting the speed of motorway traffic closing from behind. It seems to me quite imaginable that e.g. on the German Autobahn, where cars overtake @280kmh [174mph] in the rain, a Tesla on FSD (or EAP with unassisted lane-change) may not easily recognise such a vehicle silhouette coming shrouded in spray without lights in daytime and pull out into its path, thus causing an horrific smash.
E) The reversing camera cannot be counted on for redundancy in this case either, as it is set at the wrong angle, is short range and highly susceptible to distortion from water droplets.
9. So there can be many's a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip. IMHO at bare minimum the radar sensor will definitely need to be upgraded. Cameras are 50/50.
I am not sure what you mean here? What do you mean by "EAP only cars" or "just for EAP"? I thought HW3 was basically a new chip to enable additional enhancement of autopilot?
10. In theory it is to enable the jump from current EAP to FSD but you may be half right -- new cars from April 2019 coming pre-equipped with HW3 but without the FSD option will most likely show significantly improved performance in EAP over those running on HW2.5, despite the fact that Musk has proclaimed HW3 is not necessary* for EAP. Technically that will be correct, in that EAP will still [be made to] run on HW2.5 at the limit of its physical capabilities, just comparatively badly I should think.
(* i.e. this excuse was conjured up in an attempt to evade having to retrofit masses of vehicles at company expense if the owners do not buy the FSD option, although it is possible they will be sued and have to do it anyhow)
11. Whether you should now buy FSD depends on how much you enjoy a slow-paced technological adventure versus affording the risk that it never pans out as promised.