This is very close to what I was looking for.
If I may paraphrase:
If the utility has power storage, the whole argument about “EVs charging from natural gas a night” is garbage.
If the utility does not have power storage, there is indeed a gap after sunset and until midnight described by the “duck curve”, where some marginal power might have to be brought on-line, but after that, in the wee hours of the night, power requirements go down again and the base supply sources will be used, at very little marginal cost. I am guessing that electricity is very cheap after midnight and for this reason.
So the only time of day for which this argument could work is from 5pm to 8pm, or 6pm to 9pm, wherever that duck’s back is. Since power utilities price accordingly, all Tesla owners subject to variable utiltity rates are gonna program their chargers to fire up at 1am or somesuch, NOT along the ducks back.
Am I starting to grok a good response to this annoying pitch of “BEVs charge using dirty power times, so even Tesla Model 3 ain’t any better than a Camry Hybrid”???
That is pretty much my understanding. Because (my understanding) most folks charge their cars starting late at night, there's very little charging done during the duck curve times. The exception would be those taking trips. I've no idea what percentage of EVs are on a trip at any given time/day. It's very likely small. Those who charge at work would more likely be the ones that fall into the gas powering because that's during peak times. (Another reason why I'm not a big fan of workplace charging. Ducks, and not from the duck curve.)
Note that where we live, the A/C is the big electric consumer--even at our house where there are two EVs, and only hot water and heat are gas). In a hot month, of the $170, about $40 is for EV charging (2K mi/month between the two cars last year), $95 for A/C, and $35 for lights, cooking, and laundry. There's no TOU, so the electricity price is the same all day and night. If the house doesn't have the efficiencies built into ours over the years, the A/C will be three or four times as much.
Something else to note is that I just was at a presentation the other day where they showed what new power generation was going to come on line in the next few years on the ERCOT grid. The vast majority will be solar. There's almost no doubt that it will be accompanied by battery storage. The reason for this is that solar and wind can be brought on line in a few weeks or months (worst case) rather than years or decades for gas and nuclear.
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