June 20th Speculation

[Palpatine]

Let's just keep telling Elon how to run a company that changes the world. Since we've all done that and he never has.

Sent from my Droid RAZR using Tapatalk 2.

Elon is not immune from mistakes. He will be the first to admit he has made many mistakes over the years.

I have been a huge fan of Elon's for years and I stuck with my Roadster order even during the dark days of 2008-2009 when the company was on very thin ice. But if he plans to rollout a massive battery swap network and thinks that is the future, then I gotta call this turd what it is. This is bankruptcy material for Tesla Motors.

We can only hope that this is a "gee whiz" demo and there are no plans to actually spend money on this at this time. If they say it is something for Gen III in a few years, then we can hope that it dies gracefully like several other ideas that didn't pan out. For example, the Model S was originally going to be a PHEV back in the day.

 

[serkol]

I think the swapping will be done at the supercharger stations. Eventually every supercharger station will have 4 charging ports + 1 swap station. If you look at the pic of the 4-port supercharger station with an obelisk, there's one empty space to the right of the first charger. The swapping station will be there.

I envision it as a low height platform between guides for the car wheels. The car drives over this platform. Ideally the station wirelessly communicates with the car, and the car drives the last meter automatically. The station has a laser to determine when the car should stop, and the car stops automatically.

The batteries will be underground. When the car stops, the lid under it will open, and a robotic swapping thing will come up to remove the battery. It will not be a general purpose manipulator (arm). It will be a simple flat platform that goes up, aligns a little with the battery, unscrews/unlocks the battery and pulls it down.

As soon as it goes down and to the side (underground), the second similar platform with a battery goes up and attaches the new battery to the car.

All this can take very little time.

The station can wirelessly exchange info with the car before and during the swap. For example, if the battery in the car is worn-out too much, the station can refuse to swap it before the car even gets close to it.

The battery health can be measured in points. If my battery is 100 points, and I swap it to a battery with 90 points, my balance is 10 points. If the opposite happens, my balance would be -10 points. The points may be converted to money (credit or additional fee for the next battery swap).

 

[jeff_adams]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I recall he didn't really make it sound like Tesla had anything planned to help her anytime soon. I thought about that, and I would have thought that he would have given some type of hint there. So yeah, I'm really not sure.

No, you are right. I would have expected him to say something positive, anything to help sales to people in her situation. He could have said "we're going to look at options for your situation in the future". He totally acted like Tesla had no solution in mind.

That does not reconcile with battery swapping at service centers. Even if Tesla charged for it, people without charging infrastructure would buy the car and swap the batteries when they needed to so they could own a great car.

 

[Andrew]

Everyone seems to be forgetting that this is also the "under your nose" announcement. I'm sure battery swapping is part of it (the invite filename was enough to convince me), but I think there's going to be more to it than that.

I'm also surprised at some of the negativity toward the idea. It's quite clear that battery swapping isn't going to be the PRIMARY mode of recharge (ala Better Place) - especially since we just had the accelerated Supercharger announcement. Why not have this as an additional option? That would be no reason to short the stock.

I'm just bummed that I can't be there for the party!

 

[MikeC]

Everyone seems to be forgetting that this is also the "under your nose" announcement. I'm sure battery swapping is part of it (the invite filename was enough to convince me), but I think there's going to be more to it than that.

The RSVP email does say "announcements". It's the 1-year anniversary and also the start of European cars. Maybe they will offer the European-only options, like parking sensors that are under the nose cone. Also, they were supposed to fix vampire drain before shipping the cars overseas to Europe.

 

[Andrew]

The RSVP email does say "announcements". It's the 1-year anniversary and also the start of European cars. Maybe they will offer the European-only options, like parking sensors that are under the nose cone. Also, they were supposed to fix vampire drain before shipping the cars overseas to Europe.

Huh. The email invite I got was announcement, singular. Subject line was "Join Elon Musk for a Special Announcement" and in the body: "Please join Elon Musk for a special announcement at our Design Studio in Los Angeles."

 

[DaveT]

Elon is not immune from mistakes. He will be the first to admit he has made many mistakes over the years.

I have been a huge fan of Elon's for years and I stuck with my Roadster order even during the dark days of 2008-2009 when the company was on very thin ice. But if he plans to rollout a massive battery swap network and thinks that is the future, then I gotta call this turd what it is. This is bankruptcy material for Tesla Motors.

We can only hope that this is a "gee whiz" demo and there are no plans to actually spend money on this at this time. If they say it is something for Gen III in a few years, then we can hope that it dies gracefully like several other ideas that didn't pan out. For example, the Model S was originally going to be a PHEV back in the day.

Way over-dramatic to link this announcement to a possible bankruptcy of Tesla Motors. Tesla is beyond the realistic possibility of bankruptcy, and even if a battery swap implementation didn't work out it would not hurt them that much. They'll roll out with it incrementally starting with a few locations (IMO supercharger stations w/grid storage) and scale from there. If people don't like it or it's losing too much money, they can always pivot and change their plans. Battery swap for Tesla is an extra icing on the cake for owners.

- - - Updated - - -

Huh. The email invite I got was announcement, singular. Subject line was "Join Elon Musk for a Special Announcement" and in the body: "Please join Elon Musk for a special announcement at our Design Studio in Los Angeles."

In the RSVP confirmation email it says "Announcements will be begin at 8:30PM. We look forward to seeing you there!"

 

[kenliles]

Everyone seems to be forgetting that this is also the "under your nose" announcement. I'm sure battery swapping is part of it (the invite filename was enough to convince me), but I think there's going to be more to it than that.

I'm also surprised at some of the negativity toward the idea. It's quite clear that battery swapping isn't going to be the PRIMARY mode of recharge (ala Better Place) - especially since we just had the accelerated Supercharger announcement. Why not have this as an additional option? That would be no reason to short the stock.

I'm just bummed that I can't be there for the party!

that is exactly the problem I have with it- Makes communication now more difficult and degrades the SuperCharging direction imo. Now we have Primary and Secondary- that means Primary won't always cut it for you

 

[Andrew]

In the RSVP confirmation email it says "Announcements will be begin at 8:30PM. We look forward to seeing you there!"

Ah, thanks.

Okay, so here's my speculation: They announce that packs can be swapped within a couple of minutes at service stations. AND they've developed a 500-mile pack that will be available for short-term rentals (for road trips, presumably). Pay a little extra to rent one of those packs while you're on a trip, and then when you get home they give your own pack back to you. Since the pack will be much larger, heavier, and more expensive, they won't sell the bigger packs - since 99% of the time a 60kWh or 85kWh is plenty of range for everyone and there's no benefit to carrying around all that extra weight unless you're road tripping.

This also isn't in conflict with the Supercharger rollout - it just means you don't have to stop at the Superchargers as often.

 

[DaveT]

I think the swapping will be done at the supercharger stations. Eventually every supercharger station will have 4 charging ports + 1 swap station. If you look at the pic of the 4-port supercharger station with an obelisk, there's one empty space to the right of the first charger. The swapping station will be there.

Interesting. I also think swapping will be done at supercharger stations. I've uploaded an image but there seems to be two empty spaces (space A and B). Do you think the battery swap will go there?

- - - Updated - - -

I envision it as a low height platform between guides for the car wheels. The car drives over this platform. Ideally the station wirelessly communicates with the car, and the car drives the last meter automatically. The station has a laser to determine when the car should stop, and the car stops automatically.

The batteries will be underground. When the car stops, the lid under it will open, and a robotic swapping thing will come up to remove the battery. It will not be a general purpose manipulator (arm). It will be a simple flat platform that goes up, aligns a little with the battery, unscrews/unlocks the battery and pulls it down.

As soon as it goes down and to the side (underground), the second similar platform with a battery goes up and attaches the new battery to the car.

All this can take very little time.

The station can wirelessly exchange info with the car before and during the swap. For example, if the battery in the car is worn-out too much, the station can refuse to swap it before the car even gets close to it.

Awesome. I can totally see battery swap working exactly like that.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Elon is not immune from mistakes. He will be the first to admit he has made many mistakes over the years.

I have been a huge fan of Elon's for years and I stuck with my Roadster order even during the dark days of 2008-2009 when the company was on very thin ice. But if he plans to rollout a massive battery swap network and thinks that is the future, then I gotta call this turd what it is. This is bankruptcy material for Tesla Motors.

We can only hope that this is a "gee whiz" demo and there are no plans to actually spend money on this at this time. If they say it is something for Gen III in a few years, then we can hope that it dies gracefully like several other ideas that didn't pan out. For example, the Model S was originally going to be a PHEV back in the day.

I think the only way there'd be a national swapping network is if there were a nation full of cars with Tesla drivetrains congested at Superchargers. Given Tesla's ambition, swapping's a useful back-up in case they can't get charging time down enough.

 

[Palpatine]

Way over-dramatic to link this announcement to a possible bankruptcy of Tesla Motors. Tesla is beyond the realistic possibility of bankruptcy, and even if a battery swap implementation didn't work out it would not hurt them that much.

Tesla is not at all clear of bankruptcy risk. They only have $700 million in the bank and massive CAPEX coming up in the next few years for the Model X, Gen III and the Supercharger network.

Better Place spent $800 million on real estate, building expenses and R&D trying to make battery swapping work. They went bankrupt due to lack of demand.

If this announcement on June 20th is purely about a major rollout of battery swap stations, then the stock is going to tank.

If this announcement is just a "cool, look at this thing we can do" and they limit it to current service centers, then that is not a huge risk. They will realize that nobody is demanding this type of feature and it will die.

Ask yourself this. Would you pay extra for this option to be part of the Tesla battery swap network? How much extra would you pay?
Then pencil out the real estate and building expenses of a battery swap network of stations.

I would pay absolutely $0.00 for this option. I would not pay for it as an extra during purchase. I would not pay for it as a fee per use. I would not pay for it in any way. And I would even consider it a negative if it were already built into the price of the car. What a waste of time and effort. Better Place has already proved that the market doesn't see this as a realistic business solution.

The potential for abuse and theft is huge. For the future financial health of Tesla Motors, we can only hope that this is a "gee whiz" and there are no actual plans to spend money on this.

 

[sleepyhead]

I still think that they are going to unveil a production ready version of the Model X!

 

[Palpatine]

I'm also surprised at some of the negativity toward the idea. It's quite clear that battery swapping isn't going to be the PRIMARY mode of recharge (ala Better Place) - especially since we just had the accelerated Supercharger announcement. Why not have this as an additional option? That would be no reason to short the stock.

The reason to short the stock is only if they announce serious CAPEX plans to start building battery swap stations. There is no proven demand for that option. Better Place spent $800 million on the idea and went bankrupt due to lack of demand. They blew through $800 million in just Israel, Hawaii and Denmark trying to make it work. Investors know that. For the long term financial health of the company and the chance that they will be around to service your car, we can only hope that this is not the plan.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla is not at all clear of bankruptcy risk. They only have $700 million in the bank and massive CAPEX coming up in the next few years for the Model X, Gen III and the Supercharger network.

Tesla is a different company than several months ago and are clear of any realistic possible of bankruptcy. They have $700m in the bank and Elon Musk has said that they can pay for Model X, Gen III development and roll-out without raising another round. Meaning, he thinks they can finance Gen III capex with profit coming in from Model S and X sales over the next few years. This is because demand is much higher than they expected. Supercharger roll-out is largely financed by the $2000 pre-payment amount.

Better Place spent $800 million on real estate, building expenses and R&D trying to make battery swapping work. They went bankrupt due to lack of demand.

If this announcement on June 20th is purely about a major rollout of battery swap stations, then the stock is going to tank.

I don't think we should assume that Tesla's battery swap will be like Better Places (high in costs/real estate, etc). In fact, I think it's safe to assume that Tesla's battery swap business model will be different than Better Places because they can learn from Better Places' mistakes. Also, I think it's premature to say the stock's going to tank after the announcement without first seeing the announcement. But I agree if the announcement is underwhelming and costs Tesla a lot, then the stock market will react negatively. But the announcement could be better than everyone's expecting as well.

Ask yourself this. Would you pay extra for this option to be part of the Tesla battery swap network? How much extra would you pay?

It really depends how Tesla rolls battery swap out and what are the costs and convenience factors. I don't know how they're going to do it. But I do know that they are aware of the challenges and will likely come up with a creative approach that will make it very appealing to owners.

 

[Andrew]

They will realize that nobody is demanding this type of feature and it will die.

Per my speculation a few posts back -- if they're swapping out and renting higher-capacity packs, then I'd be all over it. Next month I'm going to be taking a road trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco and then on to Tahoe. If I could rent a 500-mile pack for the trip? That'd be awesome! It would make the charging logistics and timing much, much easier.

 

[brianstorms]

Someone in the LA area needs to drive over to Hawthorne and scope the place out as we approach the 20th.

We need intel. Video is ideal, still photos if necessary. What's going on in the SuperCharger site? What does it look like today? What about on the 18th? 19th? Morning of the 20th? Do they rope it off at some point?

It would be revealing if they've modified the SuperCharger station in Hawthorne. Should b obvious if we get some intel.

 

[GLDYLX]

Buy 25-50 Teslas for your rental/limo/police/taxi fleet. Buy 25-50 extra battery packs. Get a free battery swap robot and a discount on solar array, if applicable.

Just a thought.....

 

[mitch672]

Per my speculation a few posts back -- if they're swapping out and renting higher-capacity packs, then I'd be all over it. Next month I'm going to be taking a road trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco and then on to Tahoe. If I could rent a 500-mile pack for the trip? That'd be awesome! It would make the charging logistics and timing much, much easier.

They have lots of patents for a "hybrid lithium / metal-air battery pack", perhaps that's what would be swapped in, it could certainly have a 500 mile (or better range). Swapping that in for long road trips until the SuperCharger network has been fully deployed would be a game changer, as you'd have the range before the nationwide SuperChargers are full deployed. I think this could be a possibility.

 

[MikeL]

I still think that they are going to unveil a production ready version of the Model X!

Finally! Someone thinking clearly - well, at least wishing clearly. I wish too, but I don't think so.


About swapping, a while back, some convincing voices presented cues & clues & arguments that pointed to battery swap and now we seem to "know". Are we to believe, that the ability to swap out a Model S battery in 2 min. is BUILT IN to every car made, so far? With ZERO modification(s)? And that such design feature has not been seen as obvious to owners already? If ANY modification is necessary in the cars already sold to make swapping work, you know what they will call that, right? The R word, (or the 'other' R word, Palpatine having introduced the good ol' original earlier ). I know the 'nuts and bolts' stuff has been discussed, seems far fetched. If that's in fact the plan I'll be very surprised. Going on record: announcement is NOT battery swapping.


It also fundamentally changes the 'feel' of ownership of an EV. Maybe a decent idea, but I think it would be met w resistance at best, outright rejection at worst w the accompanying glee of naysayers. I am an accommodating guy. I feel like I am fairly generous, don't mind sharing, but I would object to trading the motor in my ICE car/truck w others in some pool of random other peoples' motors. I know this has big differences from that example, but instead of full ownership, the very heart of your very expensive electric sled is commonly owned. You Will Be Assimilated - somebody please edit - need a BORG clip. Preferably one making reference to "collective power supply" ML :tongue:

after all that, IF Tesla goes that direction, they WILL make it work. Resistance Is Futile