Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

[alseTrick]

And how much of the "Musk factor" is that this is an idealistic Internet millionaire that go out and starts a new car automaker just to get the other automakers over on electric propulsion? And from him open up it's patents just in the hope to get more competitors? And from "giving away" free "fuel"? From him/Tesla doing the things all others say is impossible? Yes, a lot of the "Musk factor" IS based on that this is an electric car. And that was what I was referring to in my latest post.

Yes, autopilot and ludicrous mode are factors that sells the cars, but "no one" would have heard about Tesla if it was running on an ICE, and therefore would not have heard about either autopilot or ludicrous mode.

Yes, a lot is. But I don't think that's the reason for most of it. He's an odd science nerd. He's awkward. He makes ROCKETS and wants to send people to Mars. He's big on getting Hyper Loop started. He likes sci fi and gadgets and tech.

Even if Tesla didn't exist, or even if it was an ICE automaker, he'd still have a bit of a cult following.

I think a car being an EV is good and noble. But I'm NEVER going to buy a Leaf or Bolt. That's just the bottom line. I believe simply being an EV is not compelling enough of a reason for the vast majority of the world. Likewise, making EVs alone wouldn't have built the same Musk effect as the combination of all of his projects plus his personality.

 

[Model 3]

He's big on getting Hyper Loop started.

True, but he was not the first to mention something like this. If he wasn't the well known Musk of electric car-maker Tesla no one would had listened when he came with that proposal. Maybe they had listened to him if he proposed it today based on whats going on in the space businesses?

Yes, Elon could perhaps have made an "Elon cult" without the electric car maker Tesla, but it would take a longer time. But the Elon as we know him, and the cult as it is, is based on that Tesla make electric cars.

But I'm NEVER going to buy a Leaf or Bolt.

I can not buy an Leaf, it does not have the range. But I have to admit that I am looking at the Bolt. No, I do not like or want the Bolt, but if it was no Model 3 on the horizon then that would be the first and maybe the only BEV with the needed range. Yes, I know about a lot of rumours about other cars, but I have by now heard so many rumours that have never been executed on, so we leave it at that until anything more substantively is shown. But on the other hand: without the Model 3, would it ever be any Bolt?

I gave my self a promise in the early-mid 90'th: "I will get me the first pure BEV with enough range for my use that I'm able to buy", and it looks like that would be the Bolt. But I cheat a bit since I could reserve the Model 3 before I could reserve or buy the Bolt (or Opel Ampera-e as it will be known here), and I call this reservation "a buy"

I believe simply being an EV is not compelling enough of a reason for the vast majority of the world.

And that is exactly what Elon tries to change with Tesla. He shows the world that BEV's can be as good - or better - then an ICE. See: A BEV can even have autopilot! And Insane/Ludicrous modes! And be safer then an ICE! And look good! He does not try to show people that an safe autopilot car with ludicrous mode can even be an BEV...

Likewise, making EVs alone wouldn't have built the same Musk effect as the combination of all of his projects plus his personality.

Maybe? Yes, his personality is part of it. As is his commitment to the things he believes in - like electrification personal transport. But no, it would not been enough if he had made something like Leaf/i3/Volt+++ It had to be - to use both his and yours word: compelling Yes, the unique is that he do makes the BEV's they are making not only "any BEV", but "a compelling long range BEV with fast charger network to make it usable".

... but shouldn't this debate be about all the others things about what makes the cars compelling? We know that all Tesla's is and will forever be BEV's, and that this is their main selling point until "all" the other automakers have started producing long range compelling BEV's.

 

[alseTrick]

stuff

I really don't think we're disagreeing on much. You obviously think EV is the driving force while I think it's merely an important factor. Most everything else we seem to be in agreement.

I did want to speak on Hyper Loop, though. It is not Musk's brain child. Nor is sending people to Mars or building an EV, for that matter. But he made it mainstream. That is what he does. That is what he has the capability to do. He is able to do that because of all of his big ideas. And on the flip side, all of his big ideas allow him to turn something obscure into something mainstream. It is a great symbiosis.

 

[Xminus6]

The cars are not in the same position relative to the camera, while MT had other pictures (direct side profile pictures) where the cars were parked in the same spot. But anyways, by my math:
182.4-175 = 7.4 inches more than A3.
186-182.4 = 3.6 inches less than A4.

Still much closer to the A4 than the A3.

The estimate I gave was based on dimensions adjusted for perspective. That's why I did it in 3D instead of just measuring it in Photoshop. With known dimensions of the Models S and X and matching the camera position I estimated the size discounting perspective effect.

 

[Model 3]

You obviously think EV is the driving force while I think it's merely an important factor.

Yes, I do think so. It was the electric propulsion that put Tesla and Elon on "the map" and in peoples mind, and made it possible for him to turn also other ideas from obscure to something mainstream. After all people saw that he already managed to do that with BEV's, and later also with rockets.

 

[Jayc]

This thread is going a bit off track but I do have to agree with @Model 3 that EM+EV was the magic combination that lured me to take a risk with a relatively less know brand - coming from an extremely reliable Japanese car. Had EM done a non-EV, I doubt I would have been interested let alone preorder one two years ahead of production.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

My response was very targeted. No need to change the subject.

Again, for Tesla Climate Change is more important than panel gap size and uniformity. If you give more importance to the gap than Climate Change, cheating VW/Audi is the right brand.

I find it illuminating that you consider gap size more of a black mark than emissions fraud.

I didn't buy a TDI, so I don't care.

They DO, however, understate the power output of their engines, which is helpful when insuring your VW/Audi.

Also, I find it odd that you would be willing to spend so much money on something, and you're willing to have it be a work in progress.

I'd love to have access to your checking account, perhaps there's a bridge I could sell you. I hear Brooklyn is lovely this time of year.

 

[ohmman]

Also, I find it odd that you would be willing to spend so much money on something, and you're willing to have it be a work in progress.

Sometimes expenditures aren't solely rooted in personal gain. Speaking for myself, I was willing to buy an S to take part in supporting an enterprise that aligns with my mindset. I didn't plan to spend that kind of money on a car at any time in my life - and planned to keep my '99 Acura for many years. I wouldn't have purchased a Model S if it didn't have all the great things going for it - long range, great performance, and tech. So there was certainly some reward for my expense. But what made the cost easier to bear was that I wanted to support Tesla. I'm a believer in voting with my wallet, and this was a company I wanted (and still want) to see succeed.

The experience with the S was so good, I bought the X. Yes, I have panel gap issues and other nags. For you, they'd be considered a "work in progress". For me, it's just taking part in progress.

Snarky remarks about bridges do not reflect well on your argument. People have different value judgements, and not everyone needs perfect aesthetics to feel that they got their money's worth.

For me, a few panel gap issues are easily offset by the fact that I'm able to have traveled 37k miles on electricity. All of my home charging miles are offset by my rooftop solar, and the rest were Supercharger-enabled road trips. Road trips that I never would have taken in an ICE.

So do I feel I'm getting my money's worth? Yeah. I want Tesla to do better on the panel gaps, they're not to be excused completely away. We point them out as something to improve upon. But I don't think I'm a fool for participating in one of the better stories of the 21st century.

 

[N5329K]

It's interesting how many people who reserved a Model 3 also keep their cars (by modern standards) a very long time. I surely do.
Robin

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Sometimes expenditures aren't solely rooted in personal gain. Speaking for myself, I was willing to buy an S to take part in supporting an enterprise that aligns with my mindset. I didn't plan to spend that kind of money on a car at any time in my life - and planned to keep my '99 Acura for many years. I wouldn't have purchased a Model S if it didn't have all the great things going for it - long range, great performance, and tech. So there was certainly some reward for my expense. But what made the cost easier to bear was that I wanted to support Tesla. I'm a believer in voting with my wallet, and this was a company I wanted (and still want) to see succeed.

The experience with the S was so good, I bought the X. Yes, I have panel gap issues and other nags. For you, they'd be considered a "work in progress". For me, it's just taking part in progress.

Snarky remarks about bridges do not reflect well on your argument. People have different value judgements, and not everyone needs perfect aesthetics to feel that they got their money's worth.

For me, a few panel gap issues are easily offset by the fact that I'm able to have traveled 37k miles on electricity. All of my home charging miles are offset by my rooftop solar, and the rest were Supercharger-enabled road trips. Road trips that I never would have taken in an ICE.

So do I feel I'm getting my money's worth? Yeah. I want Tesla to do better on the panel gaps, they're not to be excused completely away. We point them out as something to improve upon. But I don't think I'm a fool for participating in one of the better stories of the 21st century.

While snarky remarks regarding purchases of Brooklyn real estate don't lend any relevance to my argument, neither does the mindset of: "if you're not buying a Tesla for the environment, you should stick with emissions-cheats VAG".

As you pointed out, people have different value judgments. Whether I'm buying in to the mission or the aesthetics, my money will be accounted for in the same way by TMC.

While the mission is of utmost importance to many of you, I'm buying the product. I think you'll start seeing more of that with Model 3 than you did with R/S/X. Some of us still reside in income brackets where we don't have solar panels (or live somewhere they can't be installed).

And no one said anyone was a fool.....but when you spend that much money, why can't your product deliver quality fit/finish AND deliver on Elon's vision?

When I'm done checking boxes when the Design Studio link goes live, I want to know that the vehicle delivered to me will spend a majority of its time being enjoyed, not serviced.

 

[182RG]

There was some article, I forget where, about German luxury car makers' response to Tesla - Meh. They incessantly talked about how Tesla was a non-starter because of panel gaps.

I'll see panel gaps every time I drive the car. Dead bunnies by the road side, polar ice caps...? Yea, I don't see much of that. Sorry.

 

[ummgood]

Personally I want a compelling car that is sexy and not the 'norm'. I don't usually buy cars strictly because of their utility. I want a car that will be fun and not look like an econobox. My favorite car on the road is the A5 just because it looks so attractive. The problem is I would never buy one because I can't get over the price. I guess I am somewhere between something that is compelling but also at the same time reasonable. If the Model 3 wasn't available I would probably looking at something like a Nissan Maxima because it isn't as common as a Honda and has a little more sportiness to it.

The reason Tesla might get my money is because they made a car that really is attractive to me. Frankly I don't care that much about the electricity but the performance due to the electricity is really compelling. I have been in an i3 and a Model S on a couple occasions and I really love the performance of electric. This isn't due to them being electric. The fact I can help the environment and also save money on fuel is a plus but not a deciding factor. I really like the Model S because it is a great looking car, fast, and has really cool features but it doesn't appeal to me because it is electric. If electric was my primary concern I would be able to overlook the looks of the Volt, Bolt, Leaf, or i3. Frankly I just can't get over how frumpy they look to me. Plus they cost WAY more than what the equivalent ICE costs. Think Volt->Chevy Cruise, Bolt->Honda Fit, i3->who knows. I am willing to stretch past my sensibilities for the Model 3 so I can get a truly nice car that has some new features no other car has and really isn't that out of whack compared to a 3 series BMW. None of other electrics come close to the same value as an ICE when you look at what kind of car they compare against. I can afford probably even a Model S but I find it difficult to spend that kind of money on a depreciating asset.

I was around when the original EV1 was released and it was interesting but not compelling to me as an average car buyer. The car really was hideous looking to me. It was that overly unattractive attempt at making electric cars look overly "futuristic". Same goes for the leaf, i3, i8, and bolt. All of them just aren't that compelling to me. Yes they have great utility and are electric but they compare in my eyes to a car that costs half as much with an ICE engine.

This is where Tesla is different. They truly try to make their cars appealing to the average consumer. Yes the electric fans are lining up but so are the people who would buy a Nissan Maxima or Honda Accord because the car is that appealing. Regardless of the fact of it being electric. I will say that my biggest concern about this car is the fact that it is electric. I worry about the battery life. I worry about costly repairs. etc... I have a Toyota Tacoma and a Honda Odyssey. Both are insanely reliable and well built. I have very little out of pocket costs. My Tacoma is 11 years old and has 115k miles on it. I want that kind of longevity out of my Tesla. I think many people who lined up 400k aren't just in it because it is electric. It is because Tesla makes a compelling car regardless of the power train. Yes the power train does make the car perform like it does.

I agree that if the product has major glares with it and it is made on such a large scale it could hurt the Tesla brand. It won't cause people who love electric to stop buying but I might second guess buying another Tesla for my wife instead of a more reliable product. I can deal with the occasional issue but my wife on the other hand won't tolerate it. She puts dependability WAY before helping a cause.

 

[Jayc]

It's interesting how many people who reserved a Model 3 also keep their cars (by modern standards) a very long time. I surely do.
Robin

I intend to keep the M3 for 10 years at least. Current car will be 9 by the time I get my M3.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I'll see panel gaps every time I drive the car. Dead bunnies by the road side, polar ice caps...? Yea, I don't see much of that. Sorry.

Yes, it is easier to ignore things when they're out of sight. Quite true.

Doesn't change the realities, but yes, easier to ignore.

 

[N5329K]

I'll see panel gaps every time I drive the car. Dead bunnies by the road side, polar ice caps...? Yea, I don't see much of that. Sorry.

For now, Tesla can say, "But it's electric," to anyone complaining about fit or finish. That works for True Believers. It might even work for many of those who early-reserved a Model 3 (I count the first big inrush of 300K as "early"). But it won't work for the mass market Tesla is aiming for, where comparisons with Honda/Toyota/BMW will be made, and often. And once the established manufacturers offer truly competitive vehicles (and IMHO they haven't, yet), Tesla might find itself in the unusual and uncomfortable position of coming from behind, rather than leading. In other words, this is important and they will have to get it right.
Robin

 

[Model 3]

polar ice caps...? Yea, I don't see much of that. Sorry.

Well, that is just what the problem is: Not much polar ice caps left to see anymore

 

[glenhurst]

For now, Tesla can say, "But it's electric," to anyone complaining about fit or finish. That works for True Believers. It might even work for many of those who early-reserved a Model 3 (I count the first big inrush of 300K as "early"). But it won't work for the mass market Tesla is aiming for, where comparisons with Honda/Toyota/BMW will be made, and often. And once the established manufacturers offer truly competitive vehicles (and IMHO they haven't, yet), Tesla might find itself in the unusual and uncomfortable position of coming from behind, rather than leading. In other words, this is important and they will have to get it right.
Robin

I'm in the same category as ohmman in that a major factor in deciding to buy the MS was my desire to be a part of this transition to sustainable transport. With that said, it seems to me it will be easier for Tesla to fix fit & finish issues than it will be for the ICE car companies to construct compelling EVs based on what they've offered so far. So, while perhaps all car manufacturers are falling short of the perfect car, it seems to me that Tesla is much closer than the others.

 

[N5329K]

I'm in the same category as ohmman in that a major factor in deciding to buy the MS was my desire to be a part of this transition to sustainable transport. With that said, it seems to me it will be easier for Tesla to fix fit & finish issues than it will be for the ICE car companies to construct compelling EVs based on what they've offered so far. So, while perhaps all car manufacturers are falling short of the perfect car, it seems to me that Tesla is much closer than the others.

Well, of course. We are both early adopters inclined to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt because they're attempting something vitally important. Most oil is consumed for transport. Hack transport and you hack oil. But it's a tougher crowd when you aim for mass market acceptance. Some-many-most of that segment will be interested in style, performance, reliability and resale. Not Johnny Polar Bear.
Tesla's competitors are grudgingly moving in the right direction, but like 90 weight gear oil in February. That's a real window of opportunity, but it won't stay open forever. In the meantime, Tesla needs to navigate the transition from SV startup (where selling Beta-ware to early adopters is fine and dandy) to something (gasp) that resembles those other automotive manufacturers a bit more.
My hope, and my bet, is they will do it.
Robin

 

[jkk_]

Well, of course. We are both early adopters inclined to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt because they're attempting something vitally important. Most oil is consumed for transport. Hack transport and you hack oil. But it's a tougher crowd when you aim for mass market acceptance. Some-many-most of that segment will be interested in style, performance, reliability and resale. Not Johnny Polar Bear.

Exactly, if people really cared what their car runs on, we wouldn't need to those "diesel caps" for fuel filler holes that prevent people from adding gasoline to their diesel cars.

 

[lklundin]

With that said, it seems to me it will be easier for Tesla to fix fit & finish issues than it will be for the ICE car companies to construct compelling EVs based on what they've offered so far.

Yes. The other day I got some Audi sales material trying to sell an artificial enhancement of the engine noise.

So Audi seems very far from the mindset needed to construct a compelling BEV and they are certainly not trying to influence owners of their cars in the BEV-direction.