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JeffK
Well-Known Member
They are repairable but it's far easier to replace a bad module of cells than individual cells. Since even that requires disassembly, it's easier to replace the entire battery pack if it's under warranty, than to repair that particular battery for that owner.
I doubt it would ever be economically feasible to replace individual cells. The video showed the pack assembly, which includes individual fuses for each cell and a glycol solution with tubing woven between the cells for temperature stability. It's just not worth chasing down individual cells when the pack or entire battery assembly can be replaced.
NC-3
Member
Remember how JFK set what many thought was an "impossible" goal.
I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth.” - President John F. Kennedy, May 25, 1961
Eight years later, on July 20, 1969, two American astronauts walked on the Moon.
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Leaders like Elon Musk set goals that require out of the box thinking in order to achieve what was previously thought to be impossible. The analysts that want to focus on how "unrealistic" it sounds and move forward at the current auto industry's slow and measured pace would have the Model 3 here in 2025...
I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth.” - President John F. Kennedy, May 25, 1961
Eight years later, on July 20, 1969, two American astronauts walked on the Moon.
=====================
Leaders like Elon Musk set goals that require out of the box thinking in order to achieve what was previously thought to be impossible. The analysts that want to focus on how "unrealistic" it sounds and move forward at the current auto industry's slow and measured pace would have the Model 3 here in 2025...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Having very aggressive timeliness is not always the best thing. If Elon is serious (or perceived as such) people can start taking shortcuts to meet the deadline. If he is not that serious and people know that - then what's the point?
It is best to have slightly aggressive targets so that people think they can achieve it by being innovative or working hard.
BTW, depending on how seriously I take this - it complicates my idea of taking Bolt lease for 2 years as I wait.
It is best to have slightly aggressive targets so that people think they can achieve it by being innovative or working hard.
BTW, depending on how seriously I take this - it complicates my idea of taking Bolt lease for 2 years as I wait.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
In some areas, I see BOTH becoming a thing.
A service center with superchargers in the footprint.
It will save Tesla some time in certain jurisdictions when it comes to permitting, etc etc. It will also have the added bonus of having Tesla employees around to babysit the SC's during business hours, and hopefully prevent the backups, and/or abuse so many current owners are fearful of.
plankeye
That Vegan EV Guy
The term "Reality Distortion Field" was actually coined for Steve Jobs: Reality distortion field - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Although, I don't doubt that Elon Musk has the same effect on his employees.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I think Elon is more likely to actually prove it to be at least possible on paper right in front of a person rather than just making stuff up. Even though things sometimes don't work out, they are at least possible.
Wikipedia is probably wrong.
Remember that Tesla does it first and Apple is the graveyard for Tesla employees.
Steve Jobs is dead and Elon lives. Q.E.D.
plankeye
That Vegan EV Guy
Since it was coined in 1981, I don't think so. Elon was 10 at the time.
plankeye
That Vegan EV Guy
Elon Musk is one of the most powerful people/leaders of our time. Any deadlines he missed were either self-inflicted (scope creep), or were truly out of his control, i.e. not discovered until it was too late.
Now, with the benefit of hindsight and knowledge of past mistakes, and the lessons learned from them, I truly believe it will be different this time around. I also believe EM has a genuine desire to erase his current perception of being perpetually late on everything. I think he knows it will at least improve his stock price/stability if nothing else.
EM also now knows that his cars don't need to be quite as gee-whiz to still sell well and be amazing cars. So, armed with that knowledge and a lot of learning about how to design a car for manufacturability, reliability and serviceability, I think they can, and will, execute much closer to target on the M3 ramp.
Now, with the benefit of hindsight and knowledge of past mistakes, and the lessons learned from them, I truly believe it will be different this time around. I also believe EM has a genuine desire to erase his current perception of being perpetually late on everything. I think he knows it will at least improve his stock price/stability if nothing else.
EM also now knows that his cars don't need to be quite as gee-whiz to still sell well and be amazing cars. So, armed with that knowledge and a lot of learning about how to design a car for manufacturability, reliability and serviceability, I think they can, and will, execute much closer to target on the M3 ramp.
Since it was coined in 1981, I don't think so. Elon was 10 at the time.
That just proves it.
Elon was all powerful from the day he was born.
I was surprised that it took 10 years for it to be known.
ttupper92618
Member
I don't agree. I think that some of those factors do apply, and I agree that there is some chance that they will execute on time. However, I put it at a level somewhere under 50%.
I think that Musk simply operates under a different set of assumptions than most people do. When people hear a statement such as "Our goal is to produce 500 thousand cars a year by the end of 2018", most people will set their expectation that this will be accomplished, and if it isn't, they will be disappointed and they will count it a failure. However, most people will not have put any thought into understanding the difficulty of the goal.
Engineers, I think, can understand this sort of thing easily. Projects of any complexity have a tendency to balloon to consume (usually), whatever development time is allocated to them. And if there are any issues which arise, they exceed that development time. So if you are very conservative in the time estimate, and the project is also very complex, you can be sure that the effort will exceed your conservative estimate... perhaps greatly.
Elon sets extremely difficult goals that he knows are risky - we call these "stretch" goals. They are valuable because in the simplest terms, they make development organizations more effective. By setting a very difficult goal, you ensure that what is achieved is greater than what would have been achieved without the stretch goal. This happens, usually, on the back of what is objectively a very punishing working environment that can best be summed up as relentless. Having worked in these kinds of environments for much of my adult life, I can attest to the fact that stretch goals make teams more productive... but of course they are painful. All that aside, however, it makes a sort of perverse sense to set these kinds of punishing goals when you know you face difficult circumstances, because they ensure that wherever you wind up, it will be further along the road than you would have been without the goals.
There is absolutely no evidence that that is the case.
Stretch goals can also demotivate organizations, result in a culture of "oh, we heard this before" and behave like it is yet another "stretch" goal that won't happen, result in staff saying that are okay with an abusive paternal environment that is never happy with results, etc.
I agree with your assessment. When EM sets a stretch goal, I think there is little chance of actually achieving the goal. However, to his credit, something impressive is achieved. Unfortunately, I think that this strategy has chipped away at EM credibility and created a situation where everyone is left guessing as to the real goal underlying the stretch goal. His last conference call was met with a lot of eye rolling and many Analysts who cover Tesla are getting frustrated. Tesla will need additional capital to achieve all these stretch goals and his communication strategy is starting to wear on those that will provide that capital.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Drivin, man, are you on the right board?
You're the Eeyore-like black cloud hanging over all of us.
If I want to come back down to earth and have a negative outlook on Tesla news, I just need to search out your posts.
Did Elon steal your girl or something?
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I don't think people fully realize how long they've already been working on the Model 3
Try spending some time on the Seeking Alpha Boards. EM is either the next Bernie Madoff or a Martian looking to destroy the human race. Drivin is likely sugar coating his views for this board.
But there is plenty of evidence in Elon's stretch goals becoming eventually successful.
You may want to revisit Elon's history of starting and operating billion dollar companies.
Fan or not, what he has done in the last 20 years in starting and running these companies is arguably the greatest one man business achievement in history.
Name me 5 others in the history of business that has started, sold, and/or operated as ceo 3 businesses worth multiple billion of dollars each. Throw in solar city and we're talking about a 4th.
So yeah...his stretch goals are NOT on the same level as the stretch goals of the majority of companies that you may be accustomed to.
And it very well may lead it to being stressful and misery for some employees. But thats why he's accomplished so much in so little time. He doesn't set goals conservatively..he sets them to be unrealistic...doing so will achieve greater results than to not set them in the first place. Only a very small amount of people can pull this off.
He's one of them.
It doesn't come without criticism or naysayers...the majority of us are "normal" which means WE can't or don't think in the same pool as he does....Or aren't daring enough to stick our butts on the line for such lofty goals.
Love him or hate him, he's unique...I don't see any other ceo doing or attempting to do what Elon is doing with tesla and spacex (solar city).
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