Leasing or financing, there is no beating the depreciation. In both scenarios it will be the same $20k+ in depreciation over 3 years. Financing just gives you option to keep the car or time the trade-in, etc. No option to buy out the lease with Tesla, potential over mileage, wear and tear and disposition fees are other things to consider. You just have more options if buy it.
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Latest Price Drop Discussion
- Thread starter Sutton 3P
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Leasing or financing, there is no beating the depreciation. In both scenarios it will be the same $20k+ in depreciation over 3 years. Financing just gives you option to keep the car or time the trade-in, etc. No option to buy out the lease with Tesla, potential over mileage, wear and tear and disposition fees are other things to consider. You just have more options if buy it.
Leafdriver333
Somewhat Active Member
Leasing at least guarantees that I will be getting rid of the car after 3 years with no further loss.
To do better than leasing, I will have to keep driving the car with shorter range and old technology.
I get tired of cars easily..
Fortunately, the Model 3 is staying above the average "fun curve".
It amazes me how Elon is relentless and stays so motivated.
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Old technology? Explain pls. The software will be getting OTA updated at least until FSD is GA and probably then some. If they do what FRS does they'll offer a subscription to continue getting the latest trained NN.
As for little things like maybe offering a hardware locked Sirus/XM...maybe but what they can do in hardware they can do in software, at least as far as radio goes.
Normally I'd agree with your next sentence. Once the new car smell has left, the car best be on it's best behavior. I didn't notice any new car smell. Generally I've done hand-me-downs. My wife likes my current car better than hers so tells me to go get another one as she wants mine. My response? DONE!
Over 3 years I doubt the range will appreciably change. I would expect that's also an area they can improve on via software.
Leafdriver333
Somewhat Active Member
In 3 years, the model 3 will probably look the same from the outside.
But if OTA updates could solve everything software related, the automatic wiper, for example, should be fixed by now.
I still like the car a lot but my confidence in Tesla software engineers has decreased in the 3 months of ownership.
So what if they decided the hardware used for the rain sensor was to blame? The new cars may come with the hardware fix and the warranty will not pay for the hardware upgrade on the rain sensor.
This is one little example.
Another example would be who knows what Maxwell acquisition will do for Tesla batteries?
2020 models may come with better batteries that have slower degradation and longer ranges with cheaper dollars/kwh and faster charging rate.
In 3 years, 400 mile range may be the norm and combined with faster charging speeds, it may make road trips in Tesla much better experience than what it is today.
It's funny how I am not very optimistic about FSD.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
How many of those other cars were from new car companies who were only beginning to scale up mass production toward an order of magnitude increase, on a brand new model doing things nobody had ever done before?
As pointed out- for most buyers that's not what actually happened. For most the price today (net) is pretty close to the price (net) from a year ago.
It's just off the top instead of via tax incentives or FUSC refunds.
Also as pointed out- Tesla continues to sell literally more cars than they can make- so obviously new buyers keep buying em instead of waiting.
And lastly as pointed out- this is exactly what happened with the Model T when Henry Ford got his mass production up and running... the price dropped routinely (and by a larger % than Tesla is dropping them) and people were more than happy to keep buying those too.
I don't see that. Remember I paid 74500 for a P3-, now you get the P3+ for this.
Attachments
My understanding is it is software now. The car sees the rain. Mine works pretty good now. It didn't always and I picked it up last Nov.
Who cares. The battery pack is designed to be replaced.
Sure, that's entirely possible but your car will still charge, still run and, all things being equal, do it autonomously. You can always replace the battery and a battery is far less expensive than a new car. The other thing is the model has changed. With an ICE the goal is to make it to a gas station. With an EV the assumption is the car is charged every night so every trip starts with a 'full tank'. The vast majority of owners don't drive further per day than the battery can facilitate.
Yet not one complaint referred to self driving. The reality of it is, it's very close now. I'd guess on short trips the car does around 95% of the driving, longer trips 99%. I do intersections, no intersections, no human driver intervention.
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My confidence varies. I don't know what you do or did for a living, or if you even are out of school yet. I did software engineering for a career. For any software problem one can identify they things they know how to do. What's left are the things they don't. But even for those things, once they decompose the problem further they'll find they actually do know a lot about how to do the seemingly unfathomable task. I'd feel a whole lot better about their ability to execute on a plan if it didn't entail whimsical forays into video arcade games. That, to me, demonstrates a lack of focus. However, perhaps, and it's a huge perhaps, they use those items to teach new software hires how to interact with the Tesla OS. And that is me being kind to their software management.
Fully understand as I tend to get bored with cars quickly as well. However, you are still guessing about "further loss" as it relates to leasing. Some, (not I) believe this car will go up in value once FSD is working. With no lease buyout on the M3 then you could actually leave money on the table in a lease vs. a buy. Also, since these cars get OTA software improvements and the fact that Tesla does't seem to adhere to the typical "model year" mentality it kind of changing things a bit. Furthermore, the Model 3 is still so new that I would not expect big changes anytime soon. They are working on the Model Y and pickup before the circle back with design changes for the 3. If this were a Toyota Camry lease then I would agree but buying the Model 3 gives you more options depending on what happens in the market. Sure, buying could be more risky if Tesla goes belly up or something but that seems highly unlikely for the next 3 years.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Uh, didn't I already show you the math here?
So $11,500 difference from your quote to what you paid last year.
But you got a $5000 FUSC refund and $5625 larger tax credit and a $200 lower destination fee, and $350 in free items no longer included (Homelink, 14-50, phone cables) so that's $11,175 less than your "on paper" price.
Meaning a new one is only $325 cheaper than yours- and you almost certainly saved more than that in gas savings driving an EV since last year.
(You also possibly got free lifetime connectivity depending when your order, not delivery, date was, but YMMV on that).
Yes the one now comes with the 20" wheels "free" but those wheels suck. They're heavy and far more prone to pothole damage compared to the 18s. Either way though the difference is vastly smaller than many folks are suggesting.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
To be clear, I have no complaints about what I paid for the car; I fully expected it to get much cheaper with time. However, I am confused about the small difference you are quoting. Here are my calculations for my P3D+, white with white interior, with EAP, bought November 2018. (I happened to be “super-gifted” so pretty sure I am not eligible for a 5k FUSC refund - since that discount was already applied to my purchase price - though perhaps I should inquire!):
I ordered September 16th, took delivery on November 11th, paid $73200, $79622 after taxes and fees. (If I had taken delivery before the $5k (it was actually $5.5k or so, something else adjusted in price concurrently) price drop, the total would have been something like $85000, though I would have been eligible for a FUSC $5k refund as well. Fortunately I did not.)
After all rebates, and $850 back from the electric company this year for having the EV:
$68772 (Subtract $7500 + $2500 + $850)
With today's prices, configuring on the website, I could get the same car for about:
$55990, $60647 after taxes and fees.
After accounting for rebates (wouldn't get the $850, it's gone forever):
$56272. (Subtract $1875 + $2500)
That is a $12.5k difference!
Not apples to apples, exactly; there are the $350 in items no longer included, I also have auto lane change and NoA and maybe even Enhanced Summon at some point. And free unlimited super charging (let’s say worth $2k?). On the other hand, the newer car would have HW3, FWIW without FSD.
In the end, taking these differences into account, looks like about a 10k difference. I didn't save any significant money on gas, since I already had an EV (which I still lease for a very minimal cost, so I can't count saving depreciation on that either), and I haven't added in the extra cost of 9 months of insurance and registration fees.
What am I missing? Are you doing comparisons for a buyer at a different point in time? I’ve lost track of this thread.
Again, I don’t care, really - I expected this - but I still like to know what the real numbers are. And it seems I am missing (or miscalculating) something, or you are missing something. It’s quite likely I am missing something since I don’t follow this religiously, as I don’t really care. But wondering what it is.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
So you have the features you need to pay $6000 more for today via FSD (and the $350 in other items- and since you included fees, the destination charge is $200 higher today).
So that cuts your 12.5k down to $5950.
YMMV- Tesla apparently felt it was worth $5000 since that's what they gave people when they gave it up
At 5k Tesla value you only paid $950 more to have the car almost a year sooner.
At your 2k valuation it's $3950.
Either way, a lot smaller difference apples to apples than originally suggested...
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
True. But I don’t want FSD. So I have to figure out the value of those features (auto-Park, NoA, Summon). Based on the most recent Musk tweet, it looks like the value is about $3k (since that may at some point be what it costs to upgrade from EAP to FSD, so $6k-$3k = $3k). Personally I don’t think those features are worth that much but it does not matter.
To make this simple, let’s just say $3k, which is also what I could have bought FSD for, and that now costs $6k. So it is a consistent $3k difference no matter how you look at it.
So that takes the delta to ~$9k.
As far as the FUSC goes, I already got my $5k back for it (my purchase price was reduced) and I still have FUSC. Remember I got a very special “super-gifted” price (whether that is effectively $5k or $2k lower is subject to debate of course - but it is academic as presumably I can’t get that money). (This special price no longer looks too special.) So most people would either NOT have FUSC and have the same cost as me, or have FUSC and be paying $5k more.
So except for me and a few other select super-gifted folks who bridged the 5-week order to price drop (mid-Sept 18 to late-Oct 18) window, the difference is ~$9k for people who ordered prior to the FUSC offer expiration. If you value FUSC at $5k as you are doing, it is also a $9k difference for people buying AFTER the Oct price drop (and before whenever the next price drop was). Only for the super-gifted is it less. For those who ordered and took delivery after FUSC offer expiration on Sept 18th 2018 and before the late October price drop, the difference is $14k (they took a hit coming and going). I think that is right.
At least that is what it looks like to me.
You also get a car with HW3 and any other secret improvements, if you buy now vs. Sept 2018, FWIW.
Reiterating: I don’t care about the price drop - actually I am really happy for people who can get such an awesome car for so much less - I am not aware of a car that can compete on price/performance now - I just like to know the true numbers. It also means that if my vehicle is totaled it will likely be a bit easier to replace it without much/any loss (depending of course on how the insurance company values it, and there will likely be some stickiness, as I had to declare my purchase price to them, to be insured).
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Oh this thread is still active?
For me, the main put-off is that the Tesla gallery (or whatever they are called in Dallas) consultants were super pushy “buy now or else you lose out on the tax credit” while Tesla’s pricing strategy undoubtedly was already set to lower the price significantly two weeks after the deadline.
Yeah, the boots on the ground didn’t know that the price drop was coming but they nonetheless as representatives of Tesla goaded people into “buy now or lose $$$”, just like the CEO does with FSD “buy now because it will get expensive”. It’s a Tesla thing and it’s not a sustainable strategy IMO.
On an emotional level, I “feel” fooled and it certainly doesn’t make me trust Tesla in general.
On a rational level, I understand it’s my own responsibility to agree to a price for a product and it’s just a car - so for me, it really doesn’t matter. It’s also another lesson of “greed” for myself as I was greedy to get that tax credit LOL. Lesson learned!
For Tesla, it’s a dangerous gamble to emotionally piss off people in a business that thrives on customer satisfaction and repeat business.
For me, the main put-off is that the Tesla gallery (or whatever they are called in Dallas) consultants were super pushy “buy now or else you lose out on the tax credit” while Tesla’s pricing strategy undoubtedly was already set to lower the price significantly two weeks after the deadline.
Yeah, the boots on the ground didn’t know that the price drop was coming but they nonetheless as representatives of Tesla goaded people into “buy now or lose $$$”, just like the CEO does with FSD “buy now because it will get expensive”. It’s a Tesla thing and it’s not a sustainable strategy IMO.
On an emotional level, I “feel” fooled and it certainly doesn’t make me trust Tesla in general.
On a rational level, I understand it’s my own responsibility to agree to a price for a product and it’s just a car - so for me, it really doesn’t matter. It’s also another lesson of “greed” for myself as I was greedy to get that tax credit LOL. Lesson learned!
For Tesla, it’s a dangerous gamble to emotionally piss off people in a business that thrives on customer satisfaction and repeat business.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That...doesn't really add up.
Those features are all part of EAP already. So to do apples to apples compared to an EAP car you'd need to add FSD to a "new" car to also have them.
The 3k FSD price for EAP owners doesn't add any new features at all (though it will by end of year allegedly) it's just reflecting the fact EAP cost more than AP and trying to balance the pricing (and it's what FSD cost back when EAP was sold)
No, it's really not.
Your car with EAP requires a new car with $6000 FSD to be functionally equivalent.
So the delta remains exactly the #s I gave if you want apples to apples with your current cars features.
That said, i agree some folks who bought P cars at certain times took bigger hits than at other times... though Ps are a minority of 3 buyers overall... (and the most recent price cut was pretty proportional to the tax credit change for everyone BUT P buyers)
I think I showed the math earlier my own AWD purchase is actually slightly cheaper having bought last year compared to buying new today, plus it means I got to drive a better car 10.5 months longer too.
I actually disagree quite a bit with this. It’s like saying they shouldn’t bother building seats because the suspension’s not done.
One isn’t at the expense of another. The UI/interface team is very, very different from the folks who are programming the neural network.
You were a software engineer, so understand what I mean. Whomever is working on the presentation layer isn’t usually the DBA. Programming is specialized - working on a UX component doesn’t mean you’re working on AI training. One has literally nothing to do with the other.
My background is in systems engineering and implementation (ie IT janitor.) I can make a Unix server sing, dance and do backflips - that doesn’t mean I’m of any value in coding a mobile app. Both useful functions, but not related. One doesn’t preclude the other.
All this said — there was some complaining about the racing game being added. That port was done by a third party. I’d say that’s not lack of focus, that’s a division of responsibility —- as it should be.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I found one of my mistakes (thanks to me for finding this mistake!). The price on the Tesla website does not include taxes and fees. I thought this just meant sales tax and license fees, but it ALSO doesn't include Destination charge. So that changes things a bit. It's kind of silly that it is indicated that way on Tesla's website, but whatever. This works out to be a $1300 error after accounting for taxes.
I agree with including $6k FSD. That would have cost me $3k. So, let's do this differently:
Let's say I ordered with FSD. That makes the comparison easier because we are comparing things which are actually close to the same. My new price would then be $3252 higher. So I would have paid $82874:
$79622 + $3252 - $7500 - $2500 - $850 = $72024 (P3D+ White with White Interior with EAP+FSD)
Let's adjust for the added value of the various things now missing which is ~$350:
$71655
If I bought this same car today:
$61990 + $1200, ~$68770 after taxes and fees.
Adjusted:
$68770 - $1875 - $2500 = $64395
That's an $7279 difference. That's all I am trying to establish.
I think I've showed above it pretty much does add up. Let me know if you still want to quibble with this accounting. It seems pretty straightforward but maybe I'm (still) missing something.
I agree with including $6k FSD. That would have cost me $3k. So, let's do this differently:
Let's say I ordered with FSD. That makes the comparison easier because we are comparing things which are actually close to the same. My new price would then be $3252 higher. So I would have paid $82874:
$79622 + $3252 - $7500 - $2500 - $850 = $72024 (P3D+ White with White Interior with EAP+FSD)
Let's adjust for the added value of the various things now missing which is ~$350:
$71655
If I bought this same car today:
$61990 + $1200, ~$68770 after taxes and fees.
Adjusted:
$68770 - $1875 - $2500 = $64395
That's an $7279 difference. That's all I am trying to establish.
I think I've showed above it pretty much does add up. Let me know if you still want to quibble with this accounting. It seems pretty straightforward but maybe I'm (still) missing something.
MagnusMako
Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Well, you still have to account for FUSC that you got and new buyers don't....if you valued it like Tesla did during the P refunds that'd drop your difference to ~2300 bucks.
I think I'd also argue that you don't need to add $3000 FSD to the "original" price but do to the new one, to get the same current set of features on both cars...which would actually get your "original" car cheaper than a new one....
But I understand why you might disagree since in theory "future" features will come free to the new car but not the old EAP only one.... so you don't need the 3k FSD on the old car for TODAYS apples to apples but might for tomorrows apples.
I think I'd also argue that you don't need to add $3000 FSD to the "original" price but do to the new one, to get the same current set of features on both cars...which would actually get your "original" car cheaper than a new one....
But I understand why you might disagree since in theory "future" features will come free to the new car but not the old EAP only one.... so you don't need the 3k FSD on the old car for TODAYS apples to apples but might for tomorrows apples.
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