You can’t. All the speculation and leaks are fun to follow to get an idea what the final product will be like but none of it matters until we get the price. If the dual motor with all of the “leaked” specs so far comes in at $50-55k (before rebates). Then we may have a huge hit. If the price comes in at 80k then I think it will be mostly a failure and sell in small quantities. Anything in between will of course fall between a huge hit or huge failure.
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Launch is Imminent
- Thread starter T3SLAROD
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You can’t. All the speculation and leaks are fun to follow to get an idea what the final product will be like but none of it matters until we get the price. If the dual motor with all of the “leaked” specs so far comes in at $50-55k (before rebates). Then we may have a huge hit. If the price comes in at 80k then I think it will be mostly a failure and sell in small quantities. Anything in between will of course fall between a huge hit or huge failure.
Elon says 6k to 7k curb
VIN decoder calls out:
Dual and Triple motor
8k-9k and 9k-10k GVWR ranges
The reveal had 3,500 payload for all variants and higher towing for higher trims.
3,500 payload is bounded by:
6,000/9,500 to 6,500/10,000.
Further, only the 6k lower curb limit with upper 9k-10k gross, can get it above 3k payload.
It's possible (but unlikely) the 8k-9k range is unused currently. It's possible Elon was sandbagging the weight. But there is no recently revealed info to support either of those. If both sources are accurate, there must exist at least one trim with 3k or less payload capacity and reveal spec are, at least in part, not satisfied.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I agree with all of that- and am especially intrigued by the idea it's possible there might be a higher payload capacity on the shorter range trim. Which, mathematically and in terms of physics makes some sense, but probably marketing wise does not.
Yeah, for optics and simplicity having them the same or increasing with trim makes the most sense.
Structure seems like it would be 99% the same between trims so the variables are:
Drive unit mass
Pack mass
Suspension parts
Options? (User AC inverter, compressor, ...)
Given towing rating, it seems like any mass reductions could go to payload (especially observing axle limits to force proper distribution). So a rear wheel drive could carry more cabin/ frunk payload.
A 'Beast Mode' >10k pound version would be an interesting concept, but causes a bunch of lighting requirement changes.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Getting closer, but still not quite a day-trip:
lowtek
Active Member
Oh, so tempting ... We have a small airplane
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Day trip for me... but I JUST saw the prototype at Peterson like 10 days ago (pretty terrific exhibit about Tesla in general there for anyone who hasn't been- a number of prototype and first production cars, plus some exploded vehicle and parts displays, even an AC propulsion Zero)
I recall seeing Musk tweet (is it still called a tweet these days?) the weights at some point - but I may be misremembering - I see and consume a ton of content - so sue me if I get one wrong every now and again when it comes to attributing the exact source. It's all out there in various leaks/videos though - and Musk is notorious for being less than truthful about what he posts - so if anything - I trust the leaks more than CEO honestly - based upon watching his ramblings over the past several years.
The NHTSA filings tell us the dual motor and trimotor GVWR ranges. 8000-9000 for the dual motor, and 9000-10000 for the trimotor. When we couple that with the leaked info - which as I've repeatedly said - we shall see what the actual numbers are come 11/30 (we hope), but based upon a preponderance of somewhat reliable leaked sources that have turned out to be right based upon past data leaks - so confidence can be deemed at least medium if not high - then the numbers simply don't add up:
CT dual motor 6670lbs - GVWR:
8000lb GVWR = 8000-6670=1330lb payload rating
9000lb GVWR = 9000-6670=2330lb payload rating
So if those numbers are accurate - the maximum payload rating for the dual motor would be 2330lb. That's not a bed rating - that's the entire payload rating. Chances are that only the trimotor will offer up anything close to the 2500lbs in the supposed marketing screenshot, which makes a lot of sense when we consider that the additional motor will likely be necessary to support carrying the additional weight/payload. In other words - I bet the dual motor payload will likely be less the 2k lbs. For the trimotor:
9000lb GVWR = 9000-6890=2110lb payload rating
10000lb GVWR = 10000-6890=3110lb payload rating
So if we assume for a moment that the 2500lb marketing statement is the payload rating only for the trimotor, that means that the GVWR for the trimotor is likely going to be something like:
9390lb GVWR = 9390-6890=2500lb payload rating
In a few of the newer showroom CT pics we're seeing - I haven't seen an actual tow hitch on these vehicles - which makes me wonder if there will be some kind of "max tow" type option package available - as is the case on most other pickups - to provide better towing and cooling capabilities and perhaps a higher payload rating. That would actually be good to see.
Is it just me or has anyone noticed that not one of the showroom models we are seeing over the past two days seem to have a class IV receiver hitch installed? I’ve looked at all of the various pics posted - this one is from Chicago area. Same issue. Is it hidden somewhere somehow? Seems very odd to be marketing a pickup truck replacement with no hitch installed for anyone to see…
BTW from the Chicago post - seems that marketing poster was legit - no spelling error on this one:
BTW from the Chicago post - seems that marketing poster was legit - no spelling error on this one:
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Wouldn't it have to be a class V option to get over 10k? It's probably an option based on your tow package.
Edit: Nevermind, there's a removable cover. So something is likely under there.
Thanks for the pic. Good to see this. As to whether it’s a class IV or V, we will have to wait and see. Class IV will support up to 14,000lbs and a 1400lb tongue weight with a WDH. My bet is it’ll be a class IV and for towing loads between 10-11k lbs a WDH will be required. Most folks with 1500s towing anything over 75% of their tow ratings use WDHs already IME. We’ll know for sure on 11/30!
Ah, I thought class IV was up to 10k, but it's 10k of gross trailer weight.Thanks for the pic. Good to see this. As to whether it’s a class IV or V, we will have to wait and see. Class IV will support up to 14,000lbs and a 1400lb tongue weight with a WDH. My bet is it’ll be a class IV and for towing loads between 10-11k lbs a WDH will be required. Most folks with 1500s towing anything over 75% of their tow ratings use WDHs already IME. We’ll know for sure on 11/30!
This sign is now in Chicago, but they fixed the spelling.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
And the 2500lb is still tied to the bed and pointing at it
Keep banging that lonely drum. We will see soon enough.And the 2500lb is still tied to the bed and pointing at it
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
As I've said from the start it might be totally inaccurate- just hilarious they fixed the spelling error but left that as vague as it is.
It's ridiculous that this was an obvious corporate campaign and they didn't spell check.
Tesla doesn't really have a Marketing Department, so I'm sure this was some random person tasked to make a sign.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
I'm not a truck-guy. I've just Googled "truck bed weight capacity," and the results just keep referring to "payload capacity" and how to work it out as a function of curb weight and GVWR. But it's my understanding that that definition of "payload capacity" is not just the bed, and also includes the passengers.
Given the results don't distinguish between the payload capacity of the bed itself, and the payload capacity of the entire vehicle, I could completely understand how an intern tasked with making this graphic could use the wrong term.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Tesla absolutely has a marketing department.
Here's their 10k from 2018 for example covering the first two Model 3 years and the previous one where you can even see costs spike up a bit for the 3:
Tesla said:
These costs are tiny compared to legacy auto, but they exist.
They're even actively hiring for more obvious marketing and advertising campaigns nowadays-
That's no surprise at all considering it's a marketing poster - it's not meant to do anything other than sell the product at a high level - not answer any technical questions in any fashion. Marketing is never meant to answer technical questions in other words. It's designed to make people want to buy the product at a passing glance.
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