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Lockdown
- Thread starter AndrewGR
- Start date
I’d sincerely hope not.
We all have to do our part and break the chain of spreading this infection.
Sadly that means not carrying on with our day to day lives for the next few weeks at least.
We all have to do our part and break the chain of spreading this infection.
Sadly that means not carrying on with our day to day lives for the next few weeks at least.
And no one will be attending SC's?
I have to go to Edinburgh airport on Saturday to pick up my daughter who's arriving from Australia. I'm just wndering if I have to clear it with Police Scotland first. If she took the train or bus or even a taxi she would be risking more people that just me and my wife. My son has just returned from Denmark (uni exchange) via a protracted route today. Almost got arrested in Oslo and was officially deported from Bergen!! so we are all isolating for a couple of weeks when she arrives.
Strange times
I have to go to Edinburgh airport on Saturday to pick up my daughter who's arriving from Australia. I'm just wndering if I have to clear it with Police Scotland first. If she took the train or bus or even a taxi she would be risking more people that just me and my wife. My son has just returned from Denmark (uni exchange) via a protracted route today. Almost got arrested in Oslo and was officially deported from Bergen!! so we are all isolating for a couple of weeks when she arrives.
Strange times
What I don't understand is how they were banging on about London being weeks ahead but then they lock down the entire country at once with little notice. I've been doing my part by barely going anywhere in the last week purely for the collection day, I feel like I'm being punished for the actions of idiots in the capital.
The truth is the virus has spread to all parts of the country. Locking down certain parts would likely see similar outcomes to Italy where people fled lockdown before if was enforced, defeating the purpose.
If may seem like it's affecting London more right now but all hospitals are braced for impact this week including mine.
If may seem like it's affecting London more right now but all hospitals are braced for impact this week including mine.
The Londoners already fled.... 2nd homes in Devon, Cornwall, Lake District, Barry Iskand, Skegness (?!). All on the news this weekend. Took the virus with ‘em too. Hurry up, get the pitch forks lads!
thegruf
Active Member
I don't understand the data - are we being lied to?
United Kingdom Coronavirus: 6,650 Cases and 335 Deaths - Worldometer
(interesting site with worldwide data clearly graphed)
data authenticity backed up by PHE:
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
as of today 23rd March 6650 cases with 355 deaths.
Now I am not attempting to discuss overal mortality as the data is not available but
355/6650 = 5.3%
Also there is no definition of "cases" (other than it includes recoveries) - is this anybody who has tested positive - in which case how much testing is being done - or is it just hospital admissions?
There is a problem with the headline figures though
355 are dead today, but they will have been ill some time ago. Even if we take the best/worse case scenario of 7 days in hospital before your exit door is chosen for you, this means that we should be looking at the number of "cases" from a week ago ... which was 1543
so 355 deaths from 1543 cases is 23% mortality if you are admitted to hospital
Now if the time in hospital is shorter then the figures improve somewhat, but if longer eg 2 weeks then they are even worse. And if the "cases" include more than just tohse admitted then it is worse again.
I am trusting that somebody smarter than me can put me right on this, otherwise please excuse me while I am quietly panicking inside.
United Kingdom Coronavirus: 6,650 Cases and 335 Deaths - Worldometer
(interesting site with worldwide data clearly graphed)
data authenticity backed up by PHE:
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
as of today 23rd March 6650 cases with 355 deaths.
Now I am not attempting to discuss overal mortality as the data is not available but
355/6650 = 5.3%
Also there is no definition of "cases" (other than it includes recoveries) - is this anybody who has tested positive - in which case how much testing is being done - or is it just hospital admissions?
There is a problem with the headline figures though
355 are dead today, but they will have been ill some time ago. Even if we take the best/worse case scenario of 7 days in hospital before your exit door is chosen for you, this means that we should be looking at the number of "cases" from a week ago ... which was 1543
so 355 deaths from 1543 cases is 23% mortality if you are admitted to hospital
Now if the time in hospital is shorter then the figures improve somewhat, but if longer eg 2 weeks then they are even worse. And if the "cases" include more than just tohse admitted then it is worse again.
I am trusting that somebody smarter than me can put me right on this, otherwise please excuse me while I am quietly panicking inside.
People aren’t being testing unless they have to go to hospital. My sister had the initial symptoms but they wouldn’t test her as she didn’t need to be admitted to hospital.
thegruf
Active Member
so that is one variable cleared up then, as I thought "cases" = hospital admissions.
doesn't improve the figures though
thegruf
Active Member
and in fact this plays out if you take a 15% hospital admission rate which is a bit higher than many figures which are stating appx 10% but not out of the park.
1543 / 15 *100 = 10287
355/10287 = 3.4% almost bang on the WHO figure.
still very sobering nonetheless; a 50-80% chance of getting it; a 10-15% risk of requiring hospital treatment if you do get it; and only a 75-80% chance of getting out
... and that's before the NHS is utterly overloaded and the poor desperately underequipped staff succumb in turn.
OK - I finished cheering everyone up now.
Mine's in for service on Wednesday too. I would call to check if they are open but you can't these days. Doh!
Sobering observation of the day from a colleague, an Infectious Disease Consultant. Everyone will know someone who dies from this.
No community testing at all. Our cases are therefore a VAST underestimate. Average time from illness to admission is 5 days and time from ITU admission to death is also 5 days. High Blood Pressure, Diabetes and Cerebrovascular Diseases are highest predictors of mortality. Having all three and COVID, on admission (so by definition sick), gives a 50% mortality. 2/3 of those diseases are directly associated with age so difficult to pick the stats apart.
No community testing at all. Our cases are therefore a VAST underestimate. Average time from illness to admission is 5 days and time from ITU admission to death is also 5 days. High Blood Pressure, Diabetes and Cerebrovascular Diseases are highest predictors of mortality. Having all three and COVID, on admission (so by definition sick), gives a 50% mortality. 2/3 of those diseases are directly associated with age so difficult to pick the stats apart.
For every case proven through testing, multiply by 20 to get the real number of infections...
It's scary stuff. Also the folk who caught it in crowded public areas may have a very high viral load - breath in droplets from 5 people, and your body has a lot less time to respond. May explain why London seemingly has many younger patients also.
My wife and kid have it (99% certain - she is a teacher and kids in her classes had flu symptoms) she is mid 30's but it has floored her. Day 5 tomorrow, and hoping she improves.
Lock down is needed and wish the government had been much faster and decisive. Stay safe everyone and thank you to anyone here involved in frontline services.
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
I wonder if it would not have been safer to be able to stay abroad and shelter at your current home
instead of going to the airport and travelling confined in an airplane
and been exposed for several hours with the air circulating into your face.
I know that if you have a tourist visa, you might need to return after 30 to 90 days,
and you might have already paid for your return flight.
But I think that it would be safer not to travel at all and allow extending stay abroad in this case.
There should have been some very clear rules like you have to stay at your current location and not going to your weekend cottage,
40% of our consultant staff is currently in self isolation, we did a Zoom call yesterday with everyone and even though 2 of them tested negative they looked awful, both are under 40 and very very healthy normally.
The swab test for COVID19 has a 25% false negative rate, which means it doesnt pick up 25% of cases, not quite a useless test but not far off.
Currently the EastMidlands isnt that effected, but already we have 1 ward fully of COVID patients.
I'm currently awake at 3am because I've only just managed to settle our daughter to sleep, she has started to develop a cough and runny nose tonight.
Am due to see 4 patients who are at risk of the infection face to face tomorrow, which I'm going to cancel and move to telephone consultation. But if I do develop symptoms and need self isolate we will be down to 50% consultant stuff already, with the real impact of the virus on work load still weeks away.
We all have to do our bit to keep this virus in check and the NHS standing. The lockdown should have started weeks ago, and even now keeping schools open just keeps the virus circulating.
Hopefully as a country we can all do our bit and stop the spread of COVID, the pictures of totallay over run Italian and Spanish hospitals is not what we want to see in the UK
.
The swab test for COVID19 has a 25% false negative rate, which means it doesnt pick up 25% of cases, not quite a useless test but not far off.
Currently the EastMidlands isnt that effected, but already we have 1 ward fully of COVID patients.
I'm currently awake at 3am because I've only just managed to settle our daughter to sleep, she has started to develop a cough and runny nose tonight.
Am due to see 4 patients who are at risk of the infection face to face tomorrow, which I'm going to cancel and move to telephone consultation. But if I do develop symptoms and need self isolate we will be down to 50% consultant stuff already, with the real impact of the virus on work load still weeks away.
We all have to do our bit to keep this virus in check and the NHS standing. The lockdown should have started weeks ago, and even now keeping schools open just keeps the virus circulating.
Hopefully as a country we can all do our bit and stop the spread of COVID, the pictures of totallay over run Italian and Spanish hospitals is not what we want to see in the UK
.There is simply no way the case numbers can be correct in my humble opinion. I live in a small rural village in Hampshire and out of 200 residents, 3 have been confirmed as having corona virus. They all live a good distance apart, are different ages and don’t really know each other or socialise. I reckon the true number of cases is many many times those being reported. Either that or I live in statistically the most unlucky place in the UK.
Thanks so much for your work. It's an awful situation and we are going to ask a lot from a medical workforce these coming weeks. Totally agree about the lock down needing to come much sooner. Instead it was very mixed messaging.40% of our consultant staff is currently in self isolation, we did a Zoom call yesterday with everyone and even though 2 of them tested negative they looked awful, both are under 40 and very very healthy normally.
The swab test for COVID19 has a 25% false negative rate, which means it doesnt pick up 25% of cases, not quite a useless test but not far off.
Currently the EastMidlands isnt that effected, but already we have 1 ward fully of COVID patients.
I'm currently awake at 3am because I've only just managed to settle our daughter to sleep, she has started to develop a cough and runny nose tonight.
Am due to see 4 patients who are at risk of the infection face to face tomorrow, which I'm going to cancel and move to telephone consultation. But if I do develop symptoms and need self isolate we will be down to 50% consultant stuff already, with the real impact of the virus on work load still weeks away.
We all have to do our bit to keep this virus in check and the NHS standing. The lockdown should have started weeks ago, and even now keeping schools open just keeps the virus circulating.
Hopefully as a country we can all do our bit and stop the spread of COVID, the pictures of totallay over run Italian and Spanish hospitals is not what we want to see in the UK
I didn't know about the reliability of the swab testing.
Schools staying open is going to be a big challenge. Our local schools will have classes of 15, how do you keep 15 kids in a room without spreading the virus? Impossible. Hope your daughter is ok.
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