Pretty sure until 2023 all “credits” will be Tax refunds at the end of the year so shouldn’t have anything to do with lease vs finance
These Tax credits go to the owner of the vehicle. In a lease, that owner is Tesla, so the person leasing gets nothing, unless the owner of the vehicle (tesla in this case) chooses to share that with them, either in part or all.
This OP is asking if Tesla plans on sharing tax credits (in the form of discounts on leasing) with people. The answer is " no one knows". They have absolutely zero incentive to, however. Manufacturers do this to help make leases cheaper, because a person leasing wont get any tax credits from the government. Tesla has zero incentive right now to "make the car cheaper".
In fact, they have raised pricing like 5 separate times, which will, in effect be ensuring that they get the tax credit themselves either way. Said another way, if the car is 7k more expensive now than it was 6 months ago, and then there is a tax credit for 7k, that means that the entity actually receiving more money is tesla, not the person holding out for a tax credit.
So, Op, no one knows, but expect that the car will be expensive enough to capture most of any tax credit people may get if they buy the car. Additionally, tesla has zero incentive to pass on any tax credits when leasing, currently, other than "the goodness of their heart". They might do something like make the interest rates lower, or raise the residual value, etc.. all of those are things that car manufacturers do to spur sales / pass on credits.
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TL ; DR ...
@Loco_Nomad , dont expect anything for waiting other than a more expensive car.