JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It sounds as if that program only does charge rate throttling, not active discharging from the pack. That's easier since there is no potential added strain or cycling on the pack.
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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EldestOyster
Member
It's also easier, because going the other way implies "Vehicle to Grid", which does not seem to exist outside of demos and promotional videos (and university projects). Although, I suspect it's a regulatory challenge, and not a technical one.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yeah this is just charge throttling, not discharge to grid. So only half of the implementation. It gives the utility a "dynamic range" of 0-22 kW. Whereas if the car could also discharge the dynamic range would be double; from -22kW to 22kW. That would be worth more to the utility.
Still the aforementioned project would be one first step toward this, seeing as it's the utility controlling the charge rate.
Still the aforementioned project would be one first step toward this, seeing as it's the utility controlling the charge rate.
Thanks for the correction, and I too am sorry we didn't meet this time. I sat directly behind the board members and enjoyed the heck out of the meeting. Elon and the rest of Tesla's leaders are rock stars in my book and it was better than sharing the bench with favorite NFL or NBA players. Very cool. We're not fans, though, we're minor players on the team. We bid the stock price up, especially when it is nearing the bottom of the valley, and are appropriately rewarded for our faith in the company. Our optimism and ideas are often picked up by the media, shared with greater audiences, and thereby multiplied a hundred or a thousand fold. Our willingness to believe in the team makes the process of raising capital easier for our stars. Our buying Teslas adds to the quarterly income and delivery numbers. Naturally, I enjoy meeting the other players, both TMC forum members and the Tesla top dogs, alike.
Had the pleasure to meet EldestOyster at the superchargers.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I'd love to read the original article that Barrons is using @MitchJi - do you have a link back to that as well? I didn't see anything in the Barrons article.
This is a line of research that I see as invaluable - if we see the same level of brand loyalty and attraction to the car from other segments with Model 3, that we're seeing today with Model S/X, that will expand the market significantly (as the Barrons article notes). It would be nice to better understand the current data and assumptions.
At least for me, this is an important part of my investment hypothesis, and being able to quantify it might do more than reinforce (maybe I am underinvested
).
This is a line of research that I see as invaluable - if we see the same level of brand loyalty and attraction to the car from other segments with Model 3, that we're seeing today with Model S/X, that will expand the market significantly (as the Barrons article notes). It would be nice to better understand the current data and assumptions.
At least for me, this is an important part of my investment hypothesis, and being able to quantify it might do more than reinforce (maybe I am underinvested
).
That's TMC forum member Daniel Sparks' work. A very nice article, indeed.
Tesla Motors Inc.'s Model 3 Ambitions May Be More Realistic Than You Think (TSLA)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
This is a nice survey, and matches my anecdotal evidence. I don't know where I'd be on the survey having never previously *owned* a car when I bought my Tesla... (I'd been driving other people's cars because I was refusing to buy a car until it was all electric... that makes for a 100% price premium on a Tesla for me, eh?)
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
A utility:
- can buy a bunch of cheap Powerpacks and have 24/7 control of the battery location and state of charge
- doesn't need manufacturer buy-in for G2V
- is still selling electricity with G2V
I'm with JB Straubel on this one: G2V will happen, V2G won't.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I gave that a whirl, and came up with about a dozen other news articles with the same quote and saying the same thing. But no luck getting back to the original research. I suspect that it's firewalled and private / paid content unfortunately.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Thinking of it like that you're probably right. In theory there is a case where the curves intersect and it still makes sense, but seeing how cost reductions in storage is going to quickly change the slope of the cost curve I think you're right that we won't get to V2G in reality.
Line#2 that is undoing some validation testing now,IIRC, is capable of producing 2-3k vehicles per week when fully operational. So, I am confident that TM can produce a combination of the X and S to reach their goal of 55k vehicles produced. What number are S vs X I do not know and frankly as an investor I do not care.
We will see if the Chinese do V2G.
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I doubt they are production constrained now. I'm wondering if they will sell 50,000 MS this year. They can sell all the MX they can make this year.
The major part of the factory production - body in white assembly line (not to be confused with the general assembly line) - is currently running at close to it's max capacity, at more than 10 shifts per week. They are definitely production constrained. Until this constrained is removed, it is very difficult to say with certainty what is Model S demand really is. Given production constraint and factory backlog, though, the current demand for MS is definitely higher than 55-60K per year.
Have you been watching the vin #s, however? They are building some units in the 94xxx-951xx series and the max reported recent confirmation is 9541x. Either they held back on Asia and Europe builds or there is not really any visible production constraint that I can see. Vin #s don't mean much but a lot of them just confirmed and went to production recently very quickly. Many under 10 days from confirmation over to their start of production email (as tracked here on breser's sheet).
IIRC, TM has not yet started or is just starting RH 70D production. I do believe they are still production constrained with the S on line #1. I think line #2 may still see some production constraint going back to battery supply at that point. Do I believe that they can produce 50,000K model S this year. Yes.
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