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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

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I wasn't sure where to put this but this thread is probably as good as any.

I got a loaner for my annual service yesterday. I was hoping for a P85D but it was a 2013 P85 that had been traded in.

I did not know that they were using trade-ins (i.e., CPO cars) for loaners. I suspect they may have stopped putting newly-manufactured cars into the loaner pool and instead will just use CPO cars exclusively now that there is sufficient supply.

CPO cars may be why we didn't hear much about an end of quarter rush for Q1. I think it is a financially smart move to not sell brand new cars at a discount. I also hope that this will mean a more consistent supply of loaners for owners.
 
I wasn't sure where to put this but this thread is probably as good as any.

I got a loaner for my annual service yesterday. I was hoping for a P85D but it was a 2013 P85 that had been traded in.

I did not know that they were using trade-ins (i.e., CPO cars) for loaners. I suspect they may have stopped putting newly-manufactured cars into the loaner pool and instead will just use CPO cars exclusively now that there is sufficient supply.

CPO cars may be why we didn't hear much about an end of quarter rush for Q1. I think it is a financially smart move to not sell brand new cars at a discount. I also hope that this will mean a more consistent supply of loaners for owners.
Nice observation. If Tesla doesn't have to continually replenish the loaner/service pool because they sell them out each quarter, that could save them a couple hundred cars they have been robbing from Peter to pay Paul. I would rather they pay Peter and pay Paul...and don't call Saul. :tongue:
 
OK so even though us in the know have known for a long time that Tesla were going in to stationary storage and we knew this could be a viable business, the new info in the last few days has really changed the outlook. In my mind let's forget about the "Powerwall" product for home use, which is for now - let's be honest - kind of a niche/boutique item. No, let's focus on the $250/kWh product for large-scale applications. There is enough low hanging fruit to fill Tesla's order book for years to come, and as time goes by Tesla will be able to lower their prices even more making projects that as of today don't make financial sense (the not-so-low hanging fruits) make sense. If they keep innovating, improving on both battery chemistry/tech and economies of scale (multiple Gigafactories) I see no reason why any competitor should be able to catch up for years (decades?) to come.

But, I keep thinking, what about our investment in TSLA? TSLA stock is the publicly traded stock of Tesla Motors Inc. Up until now Tesla Motors Inc. was a car manufacturer building electric cars. Now all of a sudden there's also the "Tesla Energy" aspect to the company. And if this line of business has margins that are as great or batter as the automotive line of business why shouldn't Tesla try to grow it too as fast as possible? My guess it maybe the stationary storage business is actually simpler to grow quickly? Ramping up vehicle production is hard, taking new models (X, 3) to market is hard, there is a lot of services that needs to expand with regards to vehicles (service centers, Supercharging network etc.) With stationary storage perhaps not so much - just build the units, ship and install them. Yes, some after sales service will be needed but to me the product seems overall much simpler than a car.

So will Tesla Motors Inc. change in to just Tesla? Or will they bud off the energy business in to a new company? That could also make sense. But if so, how will the stockholders of TSLA be rewarded? IS there such a thing as a "budding off split" where a new company is formed by budding off from a mother company and the stockholders of the original company are issued stock in the newly formed company? Or would it be some kind of mother-daughter configuration (subsidiary?).

Again, if the Energy aspect of Tesla were to be taken off it would make the most sense for Elton and Co. to not make it a public company but privately held. In my opinion they were forced to take Tesla Motors public way too early - something us early stockholders should be really happy about but it would have been much easier to run Tesla Motors in its current phase are privately held.

So those who have more insight in to the workings of the financial markets - what is going to happen in the next few years??? I sure want in on the stationary storage investment as well, as early as possible! I think that business may hold even greater promise, at least equal promise, as the automotive.
 
Not sure why there is talk about spinning off the battery stationary storage business as a seperate company, keeping the businesses in one company makes much more sense as you can build large factories (giga ones) that produces batteries to both businesses which benefits from economy of scale. I am sure there is a lot of R&D overlap between the 2 businesses also.

"I sure want in on the stationary storage investment as well, as early as possible!"

You're already in.
 
Not sure why there is talk about spinning off the battery stationary storage business as a seperate company, keeping the businesses in one company makes much more sense as you can build large factories (giga ones) that produces batteries to both businesses which benefits from economy of scale. I am sure there is a lot of R&D overlap between the 2 businesses also.

"I sure want in on the stationary storage investment as well, as early as possible!"

You're already in.

I just want to make sure the big boys don't fool us small time investors out of it. Am I being paranoid?
 
But then surely Tesla Motors Inc. will have to become just Tesla Inc? I understand that a name change doesn't take anything away from our investment but it will be symbolically important and would send a signal that could in it self signal a higher valuation of TSLA?
 
That does make sense, like Apple Computers became just Apple. I agree that as soon as analysts starts seeing Tesla as more than just a car company TSLA should appreciate, seems like a part of the analysts haven't considered the storage business yet, ER next week should be pretty interesting. I think they will wait a bit with the name change though, to the stationary storage and what else might be is a more significant part of Teslas business.
 
There seem to be other companies called Tesla xyz, according to what others have mentioned, so I don't know if Tesla Inc would be registerable. Certainly my investment thesis is based on autos, GF and storage, and the internal synergies are very material to what makes an investment in TSLA attractive, to me. If the 3 units were not co-operating, and cross-managed, by a single top management team, it would be sub-optimal imho.
 
....So will Tesla Motors Inc. change in to just Tesla? Or will they bud off the energy business in to a new company? That could also make sense. But if so, how will the stockholders of TSLA be rewarded? IS there such a thing as a "budding off split" where a new company is formed by budding off from a mother company and the stockholders of the original company are issued stock in the newly formed company? Or would it be some kind of mother-daughter configuration (subsidiary?). ...

Absolutely that happens all the time. The shareholders would get stock in the new company according to some formula. The Board agrees the split at some valuation say they say the new thing is worth 10% of the company, so if you have 55 shares of TSLA you would get 5.5 shares of the new thing. (I have gotten fractional shares from this). Conoco phillips spun off their retail arm, McDonalds spun off Chipotle, etc.

But no way do I see that happening any time soon. For one thing they are using the same facilities.
 
There are three things that seem to me to be the same, but apparently they're not:

  1. Free cash flow. This is the current popular topic, and we're expecting to go positive around the end of the year.
  2. Profitability. Elon swore up and down that we'd refuse to make money before 2020 since we need to reinvest everything we're making.
  3. Earnings (visible as earnings per share). A few quarters ago, we were seen being just about dead even on this number, to the extent that it looked like we would just sell a few carbon credits to make up the difference...so we could declare an EPS of $0.01. We've drifted off of this mark, probably because R&D budget demands it. This number ought to track one or the other of the first two, unless they really are all the same.
So, are these different things, and if so, how? I mean different as in, they can occur at different times. Or is the story just changing, and I have too good a memory?
 
There are three things that seem to me to be the same, but apparently they're not:

  1. Free cash flow. This is the current popular topic, and we're expecting to go positive around the end of the year.
  2. Profitability. Elon swore up and down that we'd refuse to make money before 2020 since we need to reinvest everything we're making.
  3. Earnings (visible as earnings per share). A few quarters ago, we were seen being just about dead even on this number, to the extent that it looked like we would just sell a few carbon credits to make up the difference...so we could declare an EPS of $0.01. We've drifted off of this mark, probably because R&D budget demands it. This number ought to track one or the other of the first two, unless they really are all the same.
So, are these different things, and if so, how? I mean different as in, they can occur at different times. Or is the story just changing, and I have too good a memory?

The real answer to your question @EldestOyster is to look for a webinar or other online resource that provides an overview of accounting terminology and how to read financial statements. Here is one page I found that looks like it gets off on the right foot:
Accounting Basics | Accounting 101 Tutorials

Figure this is a 2-6 hour topic - more than a trivial amount, but small enough to still be approachable. And as a bonus, if you also invest, then this is a basic skill (reading financial statements) that will be valuable to you in those investing efforts.
 
There are three things that seem to me to be the same, but apparently they're not:

  1. Free cash flow. This is the current popular topic, and we're expecting to go positive around the end of the year.
  2. Profitability. Elon swore up and down that we'd refuse to make money before 2020 since we need to reinvest everything we're making.
A quick example of why these two are not the same: if some long-lasting equipment or property is purchased (i.e. capital expenditure, CapEx), then that does not detract from profitability because the company still has that equipment on its books and could (at least theoretically) sell it if and when required. Well, depreciation of equipment/property does affect profitability, but quarterly depreciation is usually a relatively small percentage of the total value. However, the impact on cash flow is the total value of the equipment at purchase, as the full cash amount is paid at once, assuming that a loan was not used.
So this explains why a company's cash flow can be poor when profitability remains high: the cash was used to buy the equipment, but the company still owns the value of that equipment and so there is no loss of value to the company (except some relatively small depreciation), despite the loss of cash.

With some other things, for example with salaries, profitability and cash flow are affected the same way.

Finally, an example of the other way around: the cash flow could be positive, but the company might discover that an asset (e.g. some land) now has a value far lower than previously determined. This value must be written-off, so the company might make a net loss (in terms of profitability), despite increasing its cash balance, if that write-off is more than the increase in available cash.
 
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But, I keep thinking, what about our investment in TSLA? TSLA stock is the publicly traded stock of Tesla Motors Inc. Up until now Tesla Motors Inc. was a car manufacturer building electric cars. Now all of a sudden there's also the "Tesla Energy" aspect to the company. And if this line of business has margins that are as great or batter as the automotive line of business why shouldn't Tesla try to grow it too as fast as possible?
I think the margins are lower in the stationary battery business, actually. I could be mistaken, but I think they are lower.
 
I think the margins are lower in the stationary battery business, actually. I could be mistaken, but I think they are lower.

The gross margin can be lower, but the net margins will likely be approximately the same. For the stationary storage part of the business, The SGA expenses will be much lower (no need for a network of company stores and service centers), with a low incremental R&D costs, as most of the R&D is accomplished developing the car batteries.
 
Tesla's Marketing Machine: The Pop-Up Store

First things first, is it the secret weapon for demand and against dealers?
I know it looks rather lame on the surface, but it is almost surely the secret weapon for both demand and against dealers, and it can be very effective. If it turns out that it is not THE secret weapon, it is at least A secret weapon.​

Better Than A Store
In many ways, a Tesla pop up store is better than the brick and mortar counterpart. The Pop-Up store costs significantly less in rent, as the only cost is the asphalt on which it stands, and does not include the building. Since most of Tesla's stores are located in malls and shopping centers, where rent is the one of the largest ongoing costs, this is a huge advantage. Labor is also a high ongoing cost, and if Tesla decides to make a mobile team that moves with a service center, the cost of labor will be somewhat higher. Overall, the costs seem to balance out or even be below that of a store. The Pop-Up store, then, is much like an ice cream truck, while the brick and mortar store is more like an ice cream parlor/shop in terms of costs (since an ice cream truck driver is paid about twice as much as a clerk at a shop, yet the truck is much cheaper than the shop).

The next advantage is maneuverability. The Tesla Pop-Up store has a set goal (which I will discuss later on), and once it completes its goal in a certain location, it can simply move to a new location to pursue the goal there. This is a huge advantage over a brick and mortar store, where the options are to end the store lease and set up in a new location at a very high cost, or open a new store at an also high cost. So again, the Pop-Up store is like an ice-cream truck and a brick and mortar store is like a ice cream shop/parlor, but this time in the sense that the ice cream truck and the Pop-Up store are both maneuverable alternatives to the brick and mortar store.

The main purpose of the Pop-Up store and a brick and mortar store differ dramatically. A brick and mortar store has two functions: to attract the public at malls and inform them about the existence of Tesla's products, and answer more nuanced questions from already informed and willing to buy people about their products. Some of you may point out that the Pop-Up store really does only one of these tasks well: it can answer questions from the already "hooked" people, but it doesn't really attract the large crowds that can be found in malls. I would argue that the Pop-Up store can do just that. The fact that a Pop-Up store can stand alone and shine Tesla's logo on a brilliant red background is one way, but there is another way. Placing the stores at Superchargers. Just imagine for a second that you are at the Delaware travel plaza that contains a Tesla supercharger, and it looks something like this:
delaware-welcome-center.jpg

The canopy in the picture leads to the main entrance and exit, where thousands of people pass through. The people walking in and out of that entrance already stare at the handful of beautiful cars that are plugged in right across from them, and are genuinely intrigued. Putting a Pop-Up store there, along with solar panels, would create huge interest and inquiry from people who have yet to learn about Tesla. Also, while a mall usually has the same people going to it, travel plazas attract a much more diversified crowd, which could result in higher overall interest. It is at superchargers like this one that Tesla can really fling itself at the public. This brings me to my next topic.

The Tesla Pop-Up Store Is The Ultimate Trojan Horse
Yeah, that's right. The Pop-Up store is a Trojan Horse shaped Ice Cream truck. Just take a look at this quote from Tesla's Press release (which I still haven't got my hands on):
The mobility and convenience of the design allows Tesla to bring our unique retail approach to customers in new locations where we do not **yet** have a brick-and-mortar location.
The key word is pretty clear here. Obviously, there is a process to drumming up orders from a region that involves a visit from the Pop-Up store first, and then a brick and mortar store is built. To understand why this process exists, you must know how Tesla sells cars: Word of mouth and conversations with product specialists in a Tesla store. There are plenty of places in the world where there are a few adoring Tesla fans who know about everything or want to know everything Tesla does and are huge fanboys, but hundreds of miles around them, 99% of people don't even know about Tesla at all. Investing into a Tesla store in such an area doesn't make too much sense yet, because not too many people would know about it, and thus it would reach a limited amount of people. However, a Tesla Pop-Up store can serve as a catalyst for rising interest by catering to the fanboys of the area and giving them something to talk about. Then through word of mouth, the regional interest grows to a point that it justifies the investment into a brick and mortar store and also a service center.

Also, in some states where auto dealers wailed loudly enough, Tesla is only allowed to have a certain number of brick and mortar stores. Tesla can bypass these silly rules by having mobile stores that don't count as an actual store because they aren't brick and mortar. This is how Tesla's Pop-Up stores are really Trojan Horses. The Pop-Up store (Trojan Horse) doesn't look like a (invasion device) brick and mortar store, and is therefore allowed into an area where brick and mortar stores are limited. The Pop-Up store then can help with invasion by inciting word of mouth from Tesla fanboys and creating a reason to build a brick and mortar stores. Moreover, the Pop-Up store (Trojan Horse) avoids the "city gates" (laws limiting the amount of stores allowed in a state) that the dealers have put into place. The Pop-Up store, then, is a perfect invasion and expansion apparatus that eats local auto dealers lunches as it takes sales and bypasses the restrictions they put into place.
The Future
A Tesla Pop-Up store fleet is coming (already 4 of them), and as Tesla ramps up production, Tesla will need to ramp sales accordingly with infrastructure, and the returns on investment into this infrastructure can be maximized through the use of Pop-Up stores. So, through 4Q15 to 4Q16, when Tesla is drowning in cash, Tesla can use its excess money to invest into more service centers rather than more brick and mortar stores, while still promoting sales growth. So look for a huge expansion in Pop-Up stores and Service Centers.​

Conclusion
The Pop-Up store is an effective apparatus designed to help Tesla accomplish its end goal of bringing sustainable transport to the masses because of its favorable cost structure, mobility, effectiveness in attracting the public, effectiveness catalyzing a word of mouth chain reaction, and bypassing some state laws. Here are some pictures for those who are visual learners :tongue::​
Tesla popup.jpeg

Trojan-Horse.jpg

tesla-pop-up-store.jpg

ice cream truck.jpg

mobile-store-tesla-2_large.jpg
 
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While I think 32no makes some excellent points I think there is another better reason for the popup store. To explain this I'm going to give a brief bit of background here.

As you're all surely aware multiple states have car franchise agreements that make it difficult or impossible for Tesla to sell vehicles in those states. Tesla has been slowly fighting back against those laws and trying to get them changed. This is a difficult and political process that the entrenched Dealer Associations have the advantage in, as evidenced by the failure of the recent push in some states e.g. Texas. An alternative way of fighting these laws is to start violating them and then going to court to change them. It may be difficult for the states to win in the courts over the long term, these laws are very likely unconstitutional. Telsa and it's supporters are not alone in that view, for instance the FTC shares that view.

However, doing so has significant costs. Let's take a look at what happened in Utah when Tesla tried to open a store in Salt Lake. Tesla spoke with the regulators in the state and their initial conversations were that they could get licensed as a dealer. Once Tesla had spent $3 million to build the facility and then applied for the license (the order that the law requires) they were denied. If you haven't watched it already I'd suggest you watch the excellent video by Park City TV that covers the Salt Lake situation very well, I've embedded it below for your convenience.


The popup stores allow Tesla to do two things that would be exceedingly expensive with a brick and mortar store in these states.


  • Allows them to test the waters in such states with a temporary movable asset rather than spending $3 million on a fixed asset. If the state pushes back Tesla hasn't wasted their investment.
  • Allows them to deliberately violate the laws in some states in the hope of legally challenging the laws without spending a lot of money on fixed assets.

The state laws on this front vary a lot and this strategy may not be possible in all of the states but it will in some states. In Utah there is no exemption for temporary locations and all locations have to be subject to a dealer license. Granted at this point Telsa could just try this with the store they have prepared in Utah. But in other states they may wish to avoid this sort of expenditure while not being able to be sure they'll obtain a license. Then again they could try to invalidate just the portion that effectively prevents them from even advertising their products with these such locations in these particularly difficult states.

In other states they may be able to use these locations to exclusively provide information but not actually sell the vehicles (e.g. Texas and Michigan). This is of course pretty much exactly what 32no is suggesting above. But it's certainly not the only way to use these setups.

So I think the popup stores go beyond just being a way to generate demand in certain markets, but also potentially part of a legal strategy to invalidate the dealer franchise laws.
 
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