Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[brysondad]

Perhaps you have no understood Elon's plan?
He relishes competition.
His goal is to encourage and / or force the big guns to build electric.

I saw the Via video last week and if I am not mistaken they convert existing new vehicles to electric ... i.e. not built electric from the get go.

In my book that's an E. For Effort, but how can you make money by taking a gas truck and converting it; ripping out all the gas rubbish and selling it on?

But for those that buy, when Tesla does come 'round and built trucks, and this Via is worn out, theirs will be the brand of choice.

1. as share holder, i'm not sure you relish competition.
2. Tsla did exactly that with the roadster.

 

[ggr]

1. as share holder, i'm not sure you relish competition.
2. Tsla did exactly that with the roadster.

1. Sometimes the market grows bigger through more offerings and more acceptance. In this case, I don't think Via is actually competition, but that was the original premise.

2. If you're implying the Roadster was just a converted Lotus Elise, you're wrong. It had some parts in common, and Lotus was contracted to build the gliders, but it was still designed to be an electric vehicle, and that design was done by Tesla.

 

[gene]

The VIA trucks are "Plug-in Hybrids" with a 40 mile range. Full electric is the drive-train that most people will want. Commercial fleet managers who do the math and invest wisely will see the savings of a full EV. Service fleets are generally driven during the day and can then charge at night. Southern California Gas fleets are all natural gas trucks. I would imagine that So Cal Edison Co. would love a fleet of EV trucks for the same reason. SCE might order, say 500? Multiply that times all the electric utilities in the USA and you get some scarey numbers!

 

[bonnie]

2. Tsla did exactly that with the roadster.

2. If you're implying the Roadster was just a converted Lotus Elise, you're wrong. It had some parts in common, and Lotus was contracted to build the gliders, but it was still designed to be an electric vehicle, and that design was done by Tesla.

Ahh, yes, the rumor that will never ever die. If only the Roadster WAS 'just a converted Elise', it would make it so much easier to get parts! But for those of you who DO still believe that fud, approximately 6% of the Roadster parts are in common with the Lotus Elise. So what that means is ... mirrors swap out. But not much else.

 

[uselesslogin]

This was posted in the short term thread.
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/522361/the-sad-story-of-the-battery-breakthrough-that-proved-too-good-to-be-true/

So, no competition for battery technology so far. Long-term value is looking a little better now that this is confirmed.

 

[adiggs]

Ahh, yes, the rumor that will never ever die. If only the Roadster WAS 'just a converted Elise', it would make it so much easier to get parts! But for those of you who DO still believe that fud, approximately 6% of the Roadster parts are in common with the Lotus Elise. So what that means is ... mirrors swap out. But not much else.

Hey - the 3rd party glass top seems to be interchangeable between the Elise and the Roadster - so that's two parts (mirrors, roof). Almost indistinguishable! :tongue:

 

[Norse]

http://elbil.no/ladestasjoner/1172-kraftpakke-for-tesla-i-oslo-sentrum
Some good News from Norway once again. This time someone set up free charging stations in Oslo.
Bellona, which is a environment organisation in Norway are really working hard for EV, and especially Tesla.

Bellona also published a report today regarding Taxis in Norway should drive Tesla.
Not that hard to accomplish, considering Mercedes is the most common brand atm.
http://www.bellona.no/nyheter/nyheter_2013/Bellonas_nye_taxirapport

 

[Bonken]

http://elbil.no/ladestasjoner/1172-kraftpakke-for-tesla-i-oslo-sentrum
Some good News from Norway once again. This time someone set up free charging stations in Oslo.
Bellona, which is a environment organisation in Norway are really working hard for EV, and especially Tesla.

Bellona also published a report today regarding Taxis in Norway should drive Tesla.
Not that hard to accomplish, considering Mercedes is the most common brand atm.
http://www.bellona.no/nyheter/nyheter_2013/Bellonas_nye_taxirapport

Can u imagine the possibilities for Gen III as a Taxi? they would sell out just by filling the taxi demand worldwide, it would be a no brainer... and then install private superchargers at taxi corp HQ for the largest cities or somethin(prob wont even need it).. just a very exciting thing to think about as an investor

 

[Norse]

Can u imagine the possibilities for Gen III as a Taxi? they would sell out just by filling the taxi demand worldwide, it would be a no brainer... and then install private superchargers at taxi corp HQ for the largest cities or somethin(prob wont even need it).. just a very exciting thing to think about as an investor

I know, especially in Norway. But I would rather have a battery-swapper. Imagine owning a GEN3 fleet and a swapper, you could let other People use the swapper aswell as superchargers are not common in the cities(yet). You would get Rich as hell.

 

[PeterJA]

The Tesla troll "solucky" just posted the following on SA:

"If the new japanese battery is as good as expected it reach 270wh/ kg for under 300$ so [Tesla's] advantage might be gone pretty soon"
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Analyzing The Logic Of Tesla Bears - Seeking Alpha

Of course he provided no link. Does anyone know what battery he is talking about, if any?

 

[gene]

It really makes little difference who's got what battery. The question is: Who has the Supercharger infrastructure?

 

[JRP3]

The Tesla troll "solucky" just posted the following on SA:

"If the new japanese battery is as good as expected it reach 270wh/ kg for under 300$ so [Tesla's] advantage might be gone pretty soon"
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Analyzing The Logic Of Tesla Bears - Seeking Alpha

Of course he provided no link. Does anyone know what battery he is talking about, if any?

Probably this one http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2013/12/japans-sekisui-chemical-develop-silicon.html?m=1
Not sure why he assumes Tesla wouldn't have access to the technology, but frankly at 270Wh/kg and $290/kWh it's not that impressive.

It really makes little difference who's got what battery. The question is: Who has the Supercharger infrastructure?

No, it really does matter who has what battery. A significantly better and less expensive battery technology gives a much greater advantage than a charger network. It lowers OEM cost per mile and reduces the number of chargers needed for longer distance travel, which is only a small percentage of driving anyway.

 

[PeterJA]

Probably this one http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2013/12/japans-sekisui-chemical-develop-silicon.html?m=1
Not sure why he assumes Tesla wouldn't have access to the technology, but frankly at 270Wh/kg and $290/kWh it's not that impressive.

Thanks J. What does Panasonic have in the pipeline for energy density and cost per kWh?

 

[neroden]

Can u imagine the possibilities for Gen III as a Taxi?

(a) Taxis tend to be really high-end cars, so more likely Model S than Gen III
(b) In most places, taxis now need to be wheelchair-accessible. Tesla *could* produce such a vehicle fairly easily. If Tesla were thinking about it, Tesla could make Model X work for this. Unfortunately, from what I can tell, nobody in Tesla management has been thinking in these terms.

We've discussed Tesla taxis before, I'm not sure where the thread is.

 

[JRP3]

Thanks J. What does Panasonic have in the pipeline for energy density and cost per kWh?

I'm not sure but the Model S cells are at 250Wh/kg and probably around $200/kWh at the cell level now. Pack level density is around 150Wh/kg and priced at $320/kWh at the retail level, (the difference in price between a 60 and 85kWh car after subtracting the supercharger fee). Tesla is probably using the 3.4ah cell in the S and Panasonic has a at least a 4ah cell in the pipeline though I don't know the energy density of it.

 

[Norse]

Did not see this coming: New car engines emit more harmful particles than predecessors: study

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/27/us-caremissions-study-idUSBRE9AQ0TN20131127

 

[AudubonB]

That article, Norse, is very strange. I am not sure whether the term used, "gasoline direct injection", is a term that we use here in the US - "direct injection" as opposed to a carbureted distribution of fuel has, of course, been around for many decades now.

And, frustratingly, the article did not provide any links to the research cited.

As far as I understand, the gist of the article was that in order to comply with CO2 emissions reductions mandates, automakers have thrown the baby out with the bathwater in thereupon increasining by immense amounts the quantity of particulates in exhaust. I suppose this could be true, but that runs directly counter to other statutes long on the books regarding NOX and particulate levels.

Soo.... I'll await more info regarding all this.

 

[vgrinshpun]

That article, Norse, is very strange. I am not sure whether the term used, "gasoline direct injection", is a term that we use here in the US - "direct injection" as opposed to a carbureted distribution of fuel has, of course, been around for many decades now.

And, frustratingly, the article did not provide any links to the research cited.

As far as I understand, the gist of the article was that in order to comply with CO2 emissions reductions mandates, automakers have thrown the baby out with the bathwater in thereupon increasining by immense amounts the quantity of particulates in exhaust. I suppose this could be true, but that runs directly counter to other statutes long on the books regarding NOX and particulate levels.

Soo.... I'll await more info regarding all this.

Direct Injection is different from the multi-port fuel injection because the fuel is highly pressurized and injected via common line directly into the combustion chamber rather than into the intake tract. See Wikipedia for details:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_direct_injection

 

[Out4aDuck]

Since standard EFI engines have virtually unmeasurable particulate emissions, the the fact that GDI engines are 1000x higher is not of immediate concern. Fortunately for consumers, particulate emissions are already regulated. And as it turns out, GDI emissions are below current guidelines. In fact, they are below future proposed European guidelines. However, they will likely exceed future US levels. If that is the case, an exhaust particulate trap will need to be added. Diesel cars already have these.

 

[StapleGun]

(b) In most places, taxis now need to be wheelchair-accessible. Tesla *could* produce such a vehicle fairly easily. If Tesla were thinking about it, Tesla could make Model X work for this. Unfortunately, from what I can tell, nobody in Tesla management has been thinking in these terms.

Theres really no reason for Tesla to worry about the Taxi/fleet car market until they have more supply than demand. There is no doubt in my mind that within 10 years nearly all new Taxi's will be electric. Hopefully Tesla can conquer that market eventually but right now catering to them would be a distraction.