Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[FluxCap]

Have you guys seen this?

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/01/will-there-be-battery-singularity-by.html

This is just awesome. I love both this article and the article it references, and the article THAT article references:

The future of transportation -- as seen by a sci-fi author | VentureBeat | Gadgets | by William Hertling/FeldThoughts

Energy Storage Gets Exponentially Cheaper Too | Ramez Naam

The chart tracking how much Li-Ion battery capacity $100 buys over time is just so exciting, especially extrapolated into our near future:

Hmm, I wonder which tech visionary will bring us cheap, renewable, automated, safe and fun electric cars, trains and even aircraft by 2030? Oh, I know which one! ;-)

 

[JRP3]

But John Petersen keeps saying lithium batteries aren't getting cheaper.

 

[FluxCap]

But John Petersen keeps saying lithium batteries aren't getting cheaper.

Poor John, trying to stay relevant to his corporate masters.

 

[brg2290]

This is just awesome. I love both this article and the article it references, and the article THAT article references:

The future of transportation -- as seen by a sci-fi author | VentureBeat | Gadgets | by William Hertling/FeldThoughts

Energy Storage Gets Exponentially Cheaper Too | Ramez Naam

The chart tracking how much Li-Ion battery capacity $100 buys over time is just so exciting, especially extrapolated into our near future:

Hmm, I wonder which tech visionary will bring us cheap, renewable, automated, safe and fun electric cars, trains and even aircraft by 2030? Oh, I know which one! ;-)

The chart ends in 2005 - what has the trajectory been over the last 8 - 9 years?

 

[Cattledog]

This is just awesome. I love both this article and the article it references, and the article THAT article references:

The future of transportation -- as seen by a sci-fi author | VentureBeat | Gadgets | by William Hertling/FeldThoughts

Energy Storage Gets Exponentially Cheaper Too | Ramez Naam

The chart tracking how much Li-Ion battery capacity $100 buys over time is just so exciting, especially extrapolated into our near future:

Hmm, I wonder which tech visionary will bring us cheap, renewable, automated, safe and fun electric cars, trains and even aircraft by 2030? Oh, I know which one! ;-)

Very cool Elon poster, did you do the graphics? Or have I had my head in the sand the last few months?

 

[FluxCap]

Very cool Elon poster, did you do the graphics? Or have I had my head in the sand the last few months?

Thanks, I just found it floating around the interwebs and liked it as well.

The chart ends in 2005 - what has the trajectory been over the last 8 - 9 years?

I'm not sure, because the study referenced was done in 2009 at Duke University, so I'm not sure whether they have updated their data sets. It is a very interesting to see the historical trend plotted out like that though, isn't it? Bodes well for the future, I would say.

Did you see the other study referenced in the article? Graphic here:

For reference, here was the Duke study:
AN EVALUATION OF CURRENT AND FUTURE COSTS FOR LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES FOR USE IN ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE POWERTRAINS

 

[kenliles]

Did you see the other study referenced in the article? Graphic here:

Saw that; looks like EV projection is ultra conservative as the actual data points are converging on the consumer battery- As consumer batteries are used in EV packs I would expect this to accelerate further;
thanks for the Duke study link

 

[vgrinshpun]

The last state to have registered Model S is Mississippi. There is at least one Model S now registered in every state. Drive by numbers:

Drive by Numbers - Tesla in all 50 states

 

[MikeC]

The last state to have registered Model S is Mississippi. There is at least one Model S now registered in every state. Drive by numbers:

Drive by Numbers - Tesla in all 50 states

And the award to the most backward US state goes to...

So that means there was a Model S in Latvia, Morocco, and Estonia, before someone in Mississippi got one.

(I figure, at most, I'm only offending one person on this board.)

 

[ecarfan]

Interesting to note that Texas has a good number of Tesla's considering Tesla cannot sell direct in that state, right?

 

[austinEV]

Interesting to note that Texas has a good number of Tesla's considering Tesla cannot sell direct in that state, right?

They just can't talk prices or take orders in the stores, and you have to wire the money to California. And remember, a large minority of us Texans are normal.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

And the award to the most backward US state goes to...

So that means there was a Model S in Latvia, Morocco, and Estonia, before someone in Mississippi got one.

(I figure, at most, I'm only offending one person on this board.)

Hey, we've got the most advanced charging infrastructure of all countries Now your count is hit so hope the guys from Latvia and Marocco don't read it

 

[adiggs]

... And remember, a large minority of us Texans are normal.

Thanks austinEV - I lol'd

 

[austinEV]

Thanks austinEV - I lol'd

And I am a Latviamoroccestonian American too, so everyone is picking on me suddenly.

 

[jerry33]

Interesting to note that Texas has a good number of Tesla's considering Tesla cannot sell direct in that state, right?

Not really. In Texas you order your Model S online just like in any other state, then you pick it up at one of the Service Centres. The only hassle is that you have to go to the tax office with the paperwork to pay sales tax and pick up your plates. Takes about 30 minutes, most of which is standing in line.

What Tesla employees can't do is talk about price or financing, and give test drives immediately. This is a hassle for Tesla, but it's not really a big deal for the customer.

 

[TSLAopt]

I went to the rally in NYC today and got a chance for some questions to be answered by JB after his speech. Couldn't get anything new out of him about Tesla but one interesting question I asked him was which competitor he thinks has the best chance to compete with Tesla in the future for BEVs. He thinks Nissan is most likely because they are the only automaker serious about EVs but noted they still have a ways to go.


i also asked him if it crossed his mind if he would be Elon's eventual successor considering that Elon is bringing him for this world tour of speeches/events with him.


anyone else think JB would be the successor? Or anyone else perhaps?

 

[uselesslogin]

I went to the rally in NYC today and got a chance for some questions to be answered by JB after his speech. Couldn't get anything new out of him about Tesla but one interesting question I asked him was which competitor he thinks has the best chance to compete with Tesla in the future for BEVs. He thinks Nissan is most likely because they are the only automaker serious about EVs but noted they still have a ways to go.


i also asked him if it crossed his mind if he would be Elon's eventual successor considering that Elon is bringing him for this world tour of speeches/events with him.


anyone else think JB would be the successor? Or anyone else perhaps?

Interesting article on JB from 2008:
Innovator Under 35: JB Straubel, 32 - MIT Technology Review

I can't think of a better person than JB. He could continue to drive innovation. In any event it won't happen until the Model E is out.

 

[DaveT]

I went to the rally in NYC today and got a chance for some questions to be answered by JB after his speech. Couldn't get anything new out of him about Tesla but one interesting question I asked him was which competitor he thinks has the best chance to compete with Tesla in the future for BEVs. He thinks Nissan is most likely because they are the only automaker serious about EVs but noted they still have a ways to go.


i also asked him if it crossed his mind if he would be Elon's eventual successor considering that Elon is bringing him for this world tour of speeches/events with him.


anyone else think JB would be the successor? Or anyone else perhaps?

I had a chance to speak to JB last year at a Tesla event and I was very impressed. Seemed down-to-earth, very knowledgable and focused. I left the conversation thinking that he'd be a good successor as CEO when/if Elon steps down in several years. In fact, it's given me confidence to plan to hold the vast majority of my TSLA shares for a very, very long time (of course assuming Elon would remain as Chairman of the Board and largest shareholder and would input into the LT strategy and some product design).

 

[PeterJA]

whistling past the graveyard

Not sure where to post this but...

Every ICE car commercial that I can't avoid seeing increases my confidence that Tesla is gonna eat ICE lunch, dinner, and bedtime snacks. I just saw an online commercial for a car I can't remember (only seconds later) and what three features were emphasized? Sorry, I can't remember. Except one of them was "sporty alloy pedals" (or something like that).

So you've got 15 seconds to convince your captive audience (who is pissed off at being captive) that your car is hot and sporty. So what do you show them? Shiny pedals?

Sorry, Mr. Car-I-can't-remember. You are done.

 

[JRP3]

Sorry, Mr. Car-I-can't-remember. You are done.

LOL. Love it. I feel the same, if it's not an EV it's just old technology, and just not that interesting.