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Major 2021 Model X refresh pending [Update: Unveiled January 27, 2021]

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Online is 2-5 weeks, my January.

I know. Long story short I went to take delivery yesterday of a 2021 MX. during delivery they basically scratched the car and gave me two options

1) have the car repainted at a body shop at their expense
2) get matched to a new car

I chose option 2

They then followed up and said if I chose option 2 there wouldn’t be any deliveries to March. I said on the website it shows 2-5 weeks for Canada and I was told the website is wrong and they strongly encourage me to take the car after it’s fixed because the March car will be identical to today but I would lose some incentives .
 
Interesting updates.... Tesla don’t shutdown a production line for an updated cars, is usually done on the fly. And the day of the production of the new car is within a week or two of the announcement.

there is still a chance that most or all of the production in Q1 and early Q1 are going to Asia and Europe still...
 
A Tesla production manager in Fremont described the production as a firehose pointing at different locations. During certain weeks of the quarter most of the cars to the EU, other weeks to Asia, and other weeks to North America. The further away locations go earliest. So North America is mostly in 3rd month since they can transport the cars and get them delivered in the quarter (and the revenue booked for the quarter).
 
I agree I think it'll be mechanicals again - maybe an Aero wheel, heat pump and a few interior lights? lol

Totally see how a refresh should be coming soon - if you judge by what all the other OEM's product planners do anyway, when everything that used to be optional is standard, and the price is as low as it's ever been, the "new" model spec is on the way to vendors to start making parts, you can just about set your watch by it,. Your typical luxury manufacturer mid-cycle refresh is at 3-4 model years, followed by another 2-3 model years before superceding with an "all-new better than ever!" model.

If you call Raven a mid-cycle, I think Tesla might lop a year off that with X, and figure tehy don't hold their specs static for long anyway, figure a few trim and interior changes next year, maybe a door pocket or two, then a full-on new model with a new structure to suit the new battery tech they purport to have ready to roll out soon (and near-complete retool of the production line) alongside S in a couple years, probably announced around when Plaid is actually a live item, and Lucid and Rivian and maybe even GM and Ford are actually competitors rather than future competitors.

I just can't see them canning the body shop tooling for X this early when they have so many other irons in the fire and sales are steady as still the only 3-row EV, still the only EV that can tow reasonably heavy, etc. I'd wager they still have a fair amount of headroom in profitability to drop the price a bit more too, especially if they bring back a slightly decontented standard-range, ~300-mile version.

I think it's almost as likely they simply sunset Model X after CyberTruck and the top-spec air suspension/3-row Model Y are finally available, and never make another one. A LWB Model Y, for instance, doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility - they already stretched the MOdel 3 platform once, slightly, for Model Y, and that's without a structural battery. 3 more inches of wheelbase would really endear it to the Chinese market AND make the 3rd row quite a bit more usable, with the added bonus of making it look real, real weird.

They still have to scale so many different parts of the puzzle before they're ready to start rolling out all-new versions. It's sure fun to [;ay the guessing game and watch this happen, I never imagined I'd get to watch an entire new car company/ industry segment grow right out of the ground from a teeny seedling like this during my lifetime.
 
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I think Tesla would be foolish to let the Model X wither and die. They currently have a monopoly on the market segment and there's only one competitor anywhere close to production, which is the Rivian R1S. If Tesla stops updating the Model X they hand the entire market segment to Rivian.

Maybe they might pull out in 7-10 years when the 3-row BUV market segment is more mature and there are multiple makes and models available. In the meantime I think they could keep the Model X sales healthy with only a modest investment into redesign. Sure it's not as important as rolling out the Model Y and Cybertruck, but it's a relatively small investment and the Model X has pretty good profit margins, so they'd be pretty foolish give that up.
 
If they could design a 3 row mid size SUV (either a redesign of the X or something new) in the $55k-$70K+ range depending on options, I think they would sell a ton. The 3 row SUV market is becoming very popular and the only thing holding back the X from being a huge volume seller is the price.

I am not sure how they could get the price down on the X but with battery prices dropping I don't see why they couldn't be competitive with ICE 3 row mid-size SUVs.
 
If you ignore real off-road capability and tow capability, current LR+ already *is* price competitive with all the other 3-row luxe SUV's. Price out any of the X7/GLS/Escalade/LX570 etc. and you're right at $80-85k, or much more, with a few options. Especially if you choose the spec that can perform roughly similar to the LR+ in a straight line at legal speeds, like the V8 Germans, Model X is suddenly right there in the thick of it.

That's why I think a stretched Model Y is equally likely to be the "next" Model X - the only thing it's really lacking vs. the current X is some additional interior space for the third row - stretch the entire skateboard with 3-4" of additional battery pack to get back some of the range/weight penalty of a stretched wheelbase and bob's your Highlander/Pilot/Explorer's uncle. That possibility might even be signaled already by the ginormous Porche-esque standard wheel/tire package, which is almost as big as the Model X's.

Fun to throw ideas at the wall and see what sticks a couple years later with this company
 
If you ignore real off-road capability and tow capability, current LR+ already *is* price competitive with all the other 3-row luxe SUV's. Price out any of the X7/GLS/Escalade/LX570 etc. and you're right at $80-85k, or much more, with a few options. Especially if you choose the spec that can perform roughly similar to the LR+ in a straight line at legal speeds, like the V8 Germans, Model X is suddenly right there in the thick of it.

That's why I think a stretched Model Y is equally likely to be the "next" Model X - the only thing it's really lacking vs. the current X is some additional interior space for the third row - stretch the entire skateboard with 3-4" of additional battery pack to get back some of the range/weight penalty of a stretched wheelbase and bob's your Highlander/Pilot/Explorer's uncle. That possibility might even be signaled already by the ginormous Porche-esque standard wheel/tire package, which is almost as big as the Model X's.

Fun to throw ideas at the wall and see what sticks a couple years later with this company

look, our Buick freakin’ Enclave crossed the 60k mark ... PLUS tax. Model X ain’t that far away. And at least here, no sales tax on the X closes the gap even further.

Of course, if Tesla can’t fix the damn media player - Sirius and Spotify both have major issues - my better half may actually ask for another Enclave instead. Gosh I hope the V11 update is a “big bang” in that department ....
 
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If you ignore real off-road capability and tow capability, current LR+ already *is* price competitive with all the other 3-row luxe SUV's. Price out any of the X7/GLS/Escalade/LX570 etc. and you're right at $80-85k, or much more, with a few options. Especially if you choose the spec that can perform roughly similar to the LR+ in a straight line at legal speeds, like the V8 Germans, Model X is suddenly right there in the thick of it.

That's why I think a stretched Model Y is equally likely to be the "next" Model X - the only thing it's really lacking vs. the current X is some additional interior space for the third row - stretch the entire skateboard with 3-4" of additional battery pack to get back some of the range/weight penalty of a stretched wheelbase and bob's your Highlander/Pilot/Explorer's uncle. That possibility might even be signaled already by the ginormous Porche-esque standard wheel/tire package, which is almost as big as the Model X's.

Fun to throw ideas at the wall and see what sticks a couple years later with this company
And you could add the EV SUV Hummer to that list. With the pickup going for $100K heaven knows what the SUV variant will go for.
 
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I stated this before. From a business stand point, there's no way they would redesign the X before the 4680 cells are production ready and mass produced. The new battery is suppose to be part of the structure. That's not something they can replace easily if they come out with a non 4680 new X now. Then in 2 or 3 years, they scrap the frame/structure and go with another one. No way.

I can see cosmetic upgrades, and/or interior changes. I can see they re-orienting the screen to landscape like 3/Y. But the X will remain as is for a few more years. They might have the newer Panasonic cells and add a bit more range, but nothing new till the 4680 cells are here.

-ThinkMac-