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Major 2021 Model X refresh pending [Update: Unveiled January 27, 2021]

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...I won't seriously consider any other brand as 'competition' until they also roll out a nationwide charging infrastructure.

I know what you mean. The building Tesla's proprietary supercharger network in North America has been an impressive engineering and marketing accomplishment. The Company now claims 2,000+ supercharger stations (with a whopping 20,000+ dispensers) and more on the way. Taken together with a system of Tesla Class 2 destination chargers and increasing optional availability to aftermarket DC fast chargers (CHAdeMO and CCS), and most Tesla drivers appear to have have little cause for the fabled "range anxiety" of the early days.

But along with pretty much every other electric car sold in the U.S., the new luxury "competition" for Tesla (e.g., Lucid, Porsche, and for trucks, Rivian) will use CCS fast chargers for travel trips, correct? As of May 2020 there were ~2,400 CCS stations with 5,100 outlets (plus 2,600 CHAdeMO stations with ~4,000 outlets).

My point? I'm not sure that the absence of a proprietary company charging network will really hurt sales of these new luxury-sport models. Instead, I tend to think that they will sink or swim on the merit of their individual features, performance, quality, comfort, durability, and customer service.

Now that the concept of consumer electric vehicles is well-established in the minds of the buying public, adopting a non-proprietary charging standard (CCS) in 2021 may just prove to be the successful business strategy it could not have been in, say, 2012. We'll see.

It will also be interesting to see if Tesla North America (grudgingly) adopts the CCS charge option (via built-in charge ports on new cars and affordable adapters for the rest), as it has done in Europe. Amd what would be the long-term impact to Tesla if it eventually adopted CCS as its sole charging standard (and eliminated the classic, simple Tesla plug)? I don't know.
Tesla Superchargers.jpg Destination Chargers.jpg CHAdeMO vs CCS.jpg
 
I haven't taken a fob with me for months. I can unlock and start my car with my iphone or iwatch in a number of ways, including an automated shortcut that unlocks the car and enables keyless driving whenever the phone connects to the car by Bluetooth as well as voice commands to do almost anything, When I used to walk out of the supermarket with hands full all I had to do was tell my watch to open the trunk. Now, of course, I tell the watch to have the food delivered....

Nice, can you give a quick tutorial on setting up voice commands for the X with your Apple Watch to open the trunk / frunk, etc? Would like that ability.
 
Yes, Tesla currently has the lead, there's no denying that. There's also no denying that Tesla has many talented engineers, so I'm sure they will continue to improve their technology.

My point is that the major players are coming at this with way more resources than Tesla has, and Tesla has already done the hard work for them. They don't have to figure out how to build a profitable car with battery prices at $500/kWh, because prices are ~$100/kWh now. And things like the octovalve are cool engineering tricks but aren't game changers in their own right. VW could build a competitive car without ever designing an octovalve of their own.

Then on top of that, players like VW have scale way beyond Tesla. That will help them from an efficiency standpoint. VW group as an example sells about 20x the cars Tesla does on a worldwide basis. They might not have all of the cool engineering that Teslas have, but they will put out millions of quality EV's at a competitive price over the coming years. IMO it's naive to think that Tesla will maintain its EV market dominance for more than a few more years.

There are several car makers with enough resources to make a lot of mistakes before they get it right, VW among them. It allows them to sit at the table longer than weaker competitors like Fiat-Chrysler-PSA (now Stellantis). When the market flips to EVs getting higher demand than ICE, a lot of turmoil will hit the car market. People who can't get an EV short term will keep driving a used ICE until they can get one. At that point building ICE will be a liability and the market will start to shake out with some companies going out of business or only survive with heavy government bailouts.

Survival will all hinge on how many batteries car companies can get. Having the capacity to build 10 million cars a year with a battery supply large enough to make 1 million cars limits that company to 1 million cars a year. By then Tesla may still have the largest battery supply in the industry outside of China. The key is to watch how fast other car companies are expanding supply. They are at least 5 years behind Tesla now and Tesla is showing the nimbleness and now the capacity to keep expanding fast.
 
There are several car makers with enough resources to make a lot of mistakes before they get it right, VW among them. It allows them to sit at the table longer than weaker competitors like Fiat-Chrysler-PSA (now Stellantis). When the market flips to EVs getting higher demand than ICE, a lot of turmoil will hit the car market. People who can't get an EV short term will keep driving a used ICE until they can get one. At that point building ICE will be a liability and the market will start to shake out with some companies going out of business or only survive with heavy government bailouts.

Survival will all hinge on how many batteries car companies can get. Having the capacity to build 10 million cars a year with a battery supply large enough to make 1 million cars limits that company to 1 million cars a year. By then Tesla may still have the largest battery supply in the industry outside of China. The key is to watch how fast other car companies are expanding supply. They are at least 5 years behind Tesla now and Tesla is showing the nimbleness and now the capacity to keep expanding fast.


GM and Ford not only have the resources to make mistakes and cover them up, but they also have the lobbying and state-level connections to build out massive amounts of Supercharger-like infrastructure, if that's the direction they chose to go in. Maybe the incoming Administration can properly incentivize them.
 
This is quite risky. If your car does not have cell service, you are stuck. Also, the Tesla network itself has been known to have been down for more than a day. It is very rare, but it has happened. I consider the fob to be my friend.

And that's why I prefer the model 3-style card instead ... I can tuck that little guy in my wallet as a backup source just in case.

edit: As mentioned below, the phone-as-key only uses Bluetooth LE technology, not the cellular network, so it doesn't matter if Tesla's network is down or not. The car will still unlock and drive.

But it *is* fairly easy to lose, break or just simply drain a phone.

I had a flight a few years ago where my iPhone slipped out of my pocket, and when I reclined the seat, it just crushed the iPhone. I mean, turned it into a V shape. In those days I had a Cadillac with a fob, so I was able to get home no problem... but otherwise, I would've landed at the airport and been stranded - no car and no phone to even call my wife to unlock the car.
 
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Survival will all hinge on how many batteries car companies can get. Having the capacity to build 10 million cars a year with a battery supply large enough to make 1 million cars limits that company to 1 million cars a year. By then Tesla may still have the largest battery supply in the industry outside of China. The key is to watch how fast other car companies are expanding supply. They are at least 5 years behind Tesla now and Tesla is showing the nimbleness and now the capacity to keep expanding fast.

Most companies are not 5 years behind Tesla with batteries. In fact it's impossible to make that comparison because most companies are sourcing their battery supply from third parties (i.e. Panasonic and LG). As you said, it's important to track who is sourcing adequate supply and who is not. But it's wrong to imply that only Tesla will be able to get significant supply - a number of companies are making huge investments in their battery supply chain.
 
motors - nope
aerodynamics - nope
BMS - nope

Motors and BMS are same as Model 3... Aero is marginally worse. So yeah - it's the octovalve & heat pump that delivered the next-level efficiency of Y.

And let's bookmark this post for 3 years from now and see how far advanced VW is.

Tesla's first 30,000 cars didn't need this -- I can tell you that much:
This is how VW installs the software on ID.3

I think you're misunderstanding me. The bulk of the model Y's efficiency (and model 3's) comes from their motors, BMS and aerodynamics. On top of that, the Y has a heat pump which further increases efficiency. Heat pumps are not new or fancy technology. To install this heat pump, they designed the octovalve, which is a cool piece of tech that significantly reduces the space and component requirements of the heat pump. Other OEMs will almost certainly have heat pumps, since it is a pretty basic technology that has existed for decades. They just might not have the fancy packaging that is the octovalve.

And I'm happy to take the bet that in 3 years VW group will have more BEV sales than Tesla. In 2020 they already sold approximately half of what Tesla did, with further significant expansion in 2021. That's the whole point of this conversation - traditional, large-scale automakers will overtake Tesla in terms of sales, which is why they need to make significant refreshes on the Model X and S.
 
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This is quite risky. If your car does not have cell service, you are stuck. Also, the Tesla network itself has been known to have been down for more than a day. It is very rare, but it has happened. I consider the fob to be my friend.

The mobile phone key (used as a fob) does not require cell service or the tesla network to unlock/drive, it will operate "off grid" as it uses bluetooth and authenticates with the app on the phone, not the network. Very similar to a fob in that regard. But yes, arguably fob is more resilient than a mobile from breaking, running out of battery, getting stolen, etc. But that's what the key card is a backup for.
 
The mobile phone key (used as a fob) does not require cell service or the tesla network to unlock/drive, it will operate "off grid" as it uses bluetooth and authenticates with the app on the phone, not the network. Very similar to a fob in that regard. But yes, arguably fob is more resilient than a mobile from breaking, running out of battery, getting stolen, etc. But that's what the key card is a backup for.

Correct. Cell service isn't necessary for my use of the phone/watch. It primarily relies on bluetooth but I also have my phone's personal hotspot set up as a wi-fi network. The battery issue is a theoretical concern, but with both a watch and a phone I'm in pretty good shape. I do take care that at least one of them has more than enough charge, however.
 
I think you're misunderstanding me. The bulk of the model Y's efficiency (and model 3's) comes from their motors, BMS and aerodynamics.
And I'm happy to take the bet that in 3 years VW group will have more BEV sales than Tesla. In 2020 they already sold approximately half of what Tesla did, with further significant expansion in 2021. That's the whole point of this conversation - traditional, large-scale automakers will overtake Tesla in terms of sales, which is why they need to make significant refreshes on the Model X and S.

I hear you - I think that I'd just consider Model 3's efficiency as table stakes. The heatpump/octovalve technology ups those stakes, and by a not-insignificant amount - approximately 15%. Believe me, Porsche/VW/Ford/GM/et al would love a 15% boost in efficiency. It's a lot more than a gimmick.

Now as for VW - let's see what happens. By then, Tesla will have at least 4 factories online that we know of - possibly more. Selling "the most" != most successful either. So will there be someone selling more EVs than Tesla? Possibly. Maybe even probably. I mean, Fisher-Price sold over 1m Power Wheels per year back in the 90s, so the bar's pretty high. But I don't define success in units sold, either.
 
Nice, can you give a quick tutorial on setting up voice commands for the X with your Apple Watch to open the trunk / frunk, etc? Would like that ability.

So you can set up actions on your phone/watch that execute a series of steps in a particular app using Shortcuts. You can give each one a name, like "Start my car" or "Open the trunk" and put them on the control panel as "buttons" to press or invoke them with Siri on the iPhone, iWatch or any other iOs device. So when I'm walking with my hands full I simply tell my watch what I want it to do. Bingo.

Go to Run shortcuts with Siri, the Shortcuts app, or Siri Suggestions for more info, but it works great.

I meant to add that I use both the official Tesla app as well as Tesla Remote and you can set up the Shortcuts app or any single Shortcut as complications on your iWatch. You could have one face dedicated to car commands and simply touch the one you want. For example, one Shortcut wakes up the car, unlocks the door and enables keyless driving. Another wakes the car, opens the garage door, backs the car out and closes the garage. If you use home automation products you can combine their functions as well, including geo-fencing triggers when you enter or leave some geographic location. The possibilities are endless.
 
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Supply issues at scale are why Toyota still hasn't leapt into EV's with both feet. They can electrify a lot more cars, and get them to EV-competitive energy useage in some cases, with PHEV and HEV setups, at scale. I saw an interview that stated if 90% of Toyota's customers suddenly started buying hybrids, they'd be able to meet demand. That's the kind of flexible supply chain that the majors have to have to really be *there* long-term.
 
Though in general, over time, the price is coming down, not going up. In 2018 I paid $116,500 for my X (112,500 + 4,000 for FSD). I can order a 2021 today, equipped exactly the same, for $92,990, even with FSD going for 10,000. Now I did collect the 7500 tax spiff, but the price has come down a lot more than that! My point is, that based upon history, Tesla is more likely to lower the price than raise it. Just sayin’

That's true...but I'm hoping to see some kind of step change with the refresh and maybe for some reason they might honor the old pricing...who knows

But man, Tesla is hounding me. After I placed my order I've received 2 phone calls, a text, and 3 emails asking me to fill out all my info so that they can expedite my order....I went ahead and updated my delivery location but will take my time with everything else
 
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And that's why I prefer the model 3-style card instead ... I can tuck that little guy in my wallet as a backup source just in case.

edit: As mentioned below, the phone-as-key only uses Bluetooth LE technology, not the cellular network, so it doesn't matter if Tesla's network is down or not. The car will still unlock and drive.

But it *is* fairly easy to lose, break or just simply drain a phone.

I had a flight a few years ago where my iPhone slipped out of my pocket, and when I reclined the seat, it just crushed the iPhone. I mean, turned it into a V shape. In those days I had a Cadillac with a fob, so I was able to get home no problem... but otherwise, I would've landed at the airport and been stranded - no car and no phone to even call my wife to unlock the car.
I agree the key card is great (and necessary) backup. Even if you don't break your phone or run out of batteries.

The app will occasionally log you out (probably based on a timer or something) and phone-as-key will stop working until you log back in. Normally just takes a few seconds to log back in, but if you have no cell service so you can't log back in you will be locked out (unless you have a key card/fob backup).
 
Elon has always said that he does not want to be the only manufacturer of EVs. He wants to show the way and have other OEMs follow. This is what is happening. He is putting pressure on the others to advance the rate of sustainable personal transportation.

Most others have begun the transition as well. They are copying Tesla with the skateboard battery/chassis packs, front and rear electric motors, Lithium Ion type batteries and advanced aerodymanics.

The world is advancing battery technology due to the pressure that Tesla is applying.

Some of the Field of Dreams "Build it and they will come" strategy.
 
The mobile phone key (used as a fob) does not require cell service or the tesla network to unlock/drive, it will operate "off grid" as it uses bluetooth and authenticates with the app on the phone, not the network. Very similar to a fob in that regard. But yes, arguably fob is more resilient than a mobile from breaking, running out of battery, getting stolen, etc. But that's what the key card is a backup for.

It only works that way on the Model 3 and Model Y. The Model X does not have a smartphone based key (we're only talking about the Model X in this forum). Maybe someday, but not at the present time.
 
I agree the key card is great (and necessary) backup. Even if you don't break your phone or run out of batteries.

The app will occasionally log you out (probably based on a timer or something) and phone-as-key will stop working until you log back in. Normally just takes a few seconds to log back in, but if you have no cell service so you can't log back in you will be locked out (unless you have a key card/fob backup).

That really isn't true. If you go into the iPhone settings for the app you will see it connects via bluetooth and local network in addition to cell service. I can turn cellular data off on my phone and it has no problem connecting via bluetooth or the wi-fi network created by my personal hotspot.
 
That really isn't true. If you go into the iPhone settings for the app you will see it connects via bluetooth and local network in addition to cell service. I can turn cellular data off on my phone and it has no problem connecting via bluetooth or the wi-fi network created by my personal hotspot.

As stated above, this is the X forum. Maybe the refresh will allow us to do this though.
 
We have multiple Teslas in our family. On more than one occasion I have had to help a family member remotely because their phone had died or they lost their key card. To date, each time I have been able to remotely unlock the car using the Tesla app and even start the vehicle for them so that they can drive home. Latest incident was just last evening when a phone was left on the roof of the car before driving off (phone was eventually recovered but it would not turn on). Making sure that a trusted family member has the Tesla app and log in credentials can be a lifesaver when needed.