Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[kabin]

I think it will fail the side impact crash test miserably.

And I wouldn't pay to be seated in those corners seats. It has style over function written all over it.

 

[kabin]

When to announce the next best thing?

Is the stock down?
Is there lots of bad press about Cybertruck?
Are deliveries for last quarter down?
Was there a stock downgrade?

3 or more = Announce

You can bet Elon cracked the whip on the team to do the impossible for this dog/pony show.

 

[gsmith123]

Something I haven't seen mentioned yet is that with end-to-end AI Tesla has a pretty big incentive to produce a human drivable variant of this vehicle to generate training data.

Even if the camera positions and sensor suite are identical, it's still a small vehicle. Length, width, and turning radius are slightly different (and that's particularly relevant for tight urban operations!) Today if Tesla wants to tune the performance in a specific scenario that have the option to brute force that by just sending a bunch of employees out to record training data targeting specific problems.

If they do tweak the sensor suite that's even more incentive.

 

[JulienW]

You can bet Elon cracked the whip on the team to do the impossible for this dog/pony show.

You mean the way he cracked the whip and got us robotaxis by the end of 2020, just like he said.

 

[Ni Ph]

Elon’s temperament is very unstable and has been since his politics turned toward far right. Obsessed with petty squabbles, can’t take criticism, takes credit for everything, never acknowledges the teams hard work and ideas. A Narcissist!

He has become the biggest risk to Tesla’s future.

Robotaxis fantasy is to keep the Tesla share bubble going. As a shareholder I am scared and may reduce my holdings, hopefully when all the fanboys pile in and “take it the moon” in August.

Selling FSD showed he truly is a Snakeoil salesman. Not sure who is worse, idiots who pay for the product like FSD or the conman.

 

[eli_]

Solving full autonomy gets you the ability to do lots of cool things, but that's many years away. The current models like V12 FSD don't have any agency, they're purely predictive. To take humans totally out of the loop you need models that can plan/conspire, like MuZero, not simply predict the next path. You can still do robotaxis today as an intermediate step but it's really costly and the current players need a village to keep their cars on the road, with tons of operators both local in the field and remote in call centers to take over when the car gets stuck/confused. And even if you have full autonomy when driving on the road, your fleet still has big operational costs that look similar to the failed scooter rental industry. Anyway what I'm trying to say is, robotaxis aren't a great business and if you truly solved full autonomy you can make way more profit applying it toward other things, like cooking and cleaning robots.

One positive I can see for Tesla is a robotaxi fleet can help sell their cars, and make more people aware of their capabilities and autonomy. Most people have no clue this technology even exists yet.

 

[vermell]

It’ll be interesting to see the process for becoming a passenger. Secondly, I would assume this concept will be available in a handful of cities with strict, designated pickup and drop off points (public infrastructure points of interest).

Unfortunately, immature people will ruin this idea for the masses.

 

[petercc9]

I expect the same old song: “It’s a robotaxi by the end of the year but it requires supervision until then”.

Well that's beyond the control of Tesla. Even Waymo has trouble getting city approvals and they have been at it for a long long long time.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'm expecting a 2 seater, overall similar to the first concept art. I do expect a 4 wheeler vs a 3 wheeler with a single back wheel. Potentially RWD only. I'm expecting it's designed as a shared platform for a small compact personal vehicle (with normal drive controls, same as Model 3) and a dedicated robotaxi (2 seater in both cases). It might be steer by wire.

I think a 2 seater will have very limited appeal, regardless of it being a robotaxi or not. I expect something more like a 4-5 seater subcompact hatch, which is what the bestselling small cars are. For EVs, the BYD Seagull is the analog:
Focus2move| World Best Selling Small Cars. The Top 25 in 2023

As mentioned in the other thread, given due to NHTSA regulations, manufacturers can only get 2500 units per year exempt (presuming no steering wheel nor pedals), which means the robotaxi will have to be a dedicated vehicle. In such a case, I think Tesla would rather make something more akin to the pods that other AV companies are planning to do. Akin to the Cruise Origin, the Zoox, or the Waymo One Zeekr. For the cynics, if this is going to be a stock pump, something like that which at least looks the part will probably be the most effective.

 

[petercc9]

I'm a part time Uber driver with my tesla now 4 years.
This past week I have been using the 30 day trial of FSD while driving Uber. Usually i only do 2 days a week, but with the trial I've driven everyday all day. I've been blown away. I can definitively say V12 FSD is a game changer.

I'm beginning to think FSD is more comfortable in dense housing areas rather than wide multi-laned more "open" areas.
Where I am in the dense housing areas of the NorthEast with mostly one or two laned roads it is unreal..and the funny thing is I think it drives even more confidently at night too. However I'm not brave enough to risk the local highways where everybody is driving 90mph in rain, snow, or shine.

 

[petercc9]

I feel like Elon wants to announce a robotaxi on 8/8 just to keep up with the competition. We've seen Cruise, Zoox and Waymo showcase their dedicated robotaxi vehicles. Cruise got shut down but GM has produced a bunch of the Origins for when they do redeploy. Zoox is actively testing their robotaxi on public streets now. Waymo is scaling their I-Pace robotaxi and will soon start testing their Zeekr robotaxi. Tesla is looking more and more like they are falling behind on robotaxis. So I think Elon will show off a concept robotaxi just to be able to say that Tesla also has a dedicated robotaxi vehicle coming.

While I admire Waymo for getting its tech working years ago..you have to wonder if there is something fishy going on since they have not expanded very quickly across the US.

 

[gsmith123]

something fishy

The economics of operating, and technical hurdles, for each geographic location can probably explain this.

 

[kabin]

You mean the way he cracked the whip and got us robotaxis by the end of 2020, just like he said.

I didn't mean to imply the robotaxis team would succeed.

 

[kabin]

While I admire Waymo for getting its tech working years ago..you have to wonder if there is something fishy going on since they have not expanded very quickly across the US.

It's probably a lot more complicated than it looks setting up strategically located shops in an area, hiring/training staff, building more vehicles, doing proper testing, verification, providing data to local governments, and then waiting for approval.

And maybe Gen 6 will squeeze enough cost out of the design so they can more easily mass produce vehicles. Otherwise I think the plan was to only offer services in a few select areas.

 

[kabin]

I'm beginning to think FSD is more comfortable in dense housing areas rather than wide multi-laned more "open" areas.
Where I am in the dense housing areas of the NorthEast with mostly one or two laned roads it is unreal..and the funny thing is I think it drives even more confidently at night too. However I'm not brave enough to risk the local highways where everybody is driving 90mph in rain, snow, or shine.

I think so too. It seems to shine in more structured environments. We'll know more once v12 rolls out to freeways.

 

[flutas]

If the Cybertruck is anything to go by, probably something along the lines of...

 

[ThomasD]

Some States you don't even need Permits. Tesla will need to setup live operators and be able to control the Car remotely if necessary. How will Tesla charge these Cars? Are they going to install the Charging Snakes at all of the Charging Stations? Or will they designate specific chargers for autonomous charging?

 

[Ni Ph]

Tesla relies on its vision system, that’s great in a Texas or Arizona

In London I can’t remember 2 sunny days in a row since December, the vision lenses won’t cope in our bad narrow roads or cold damp weather. And the biggest obstacle ironically is other human driving on the same roads where ability and safety are so variable.

Plus I doubt whether the consumer will benefit, the Corporations who will buy up the fleets with who whoever comes up with first viable Robotaxis, and charge the same as uber

Since there seems to no shortage of Uber/taxi drivers who don’t earn fortunes but earn enough to support their families, it’s a solution to a problem/shortage that doesn’t exist

 

[spacecoin]

Well that's beyond the control of Tesla. Even Waymo has trouble getting city approvals and they have been at it for a long long long time.

As pointed out, many states don’t even have a permitting process and in the ones that do, like CA, anyone can get a non-commercial permit to deploy driverless once proven reliable with safety drivers. Sometimes there is hardly any process at all, like in NV.

So no, the permits won’t be an issue.

Waymo scales carefully because they prioritize safety. Look at Cruise. One major incident = game over.

Tesla likely won’t deploy a driverless car this decade. Probably never on vision only.

 

[spacecoin]

Well Tesla is shooting for a L4 taxi and not just Elon "shooting" his mouth off.

That’s still TBD. For ten years it’s been the stockpump of the year. Now, the Chinese are killing them on margins in China and EV demand is low in the US even with record subsidies.

When Elon is pressured, an announcement is needed and always happens. solar city acquisition, 420 private, autonomy day, battery day, optimus. Ask yourself what became of those products and predictions…

I’m guessing Tesla need to raise money if they are to scale with more factories. The stock price needs to be higher so Elon isn’t diluted more than necessary. Rates are too high for geting a loan and now is the time to build if you believe the world economy will recover by 2025-2026.