Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[spacecoin]

How much does it cost per mile to create maps? Couldn’t AI also be used to lower that cost?
I wonder if humans drive better in areas where they have a mental map? I feel like I do.

Funny you should say this. Both questions are asked and answered in the clip with Drago A I shared a few pages ago.

 

[spacecoin]

Related: This small reality check on what we know and what we don't right now

 

[DanCar]

> we don't have a map to AGI
Most experts I've chatted with or read their info, believe that scale and normal software improvements is all that is needed.
Which year is unknown, but 2029 predicted by Kurzweil, has a normalization characteristic. In other words plenty of people believe before that date and after that date.
One argument I hear against AGI is that LLM architecture will never be sufficient. It is not about LLM architecture, it is about A.I. It is about what LLM will morph into. LLM architecture is constantly changing / improving.

> Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift?
In my mind it is very much a paradigm shift. We've never had a reasoning engine that works this well, applicable in so many contexts. Reasoning engine is the essence of what people think of as A.I. It is in its infancy, but improving fast. The world will be much different in the next decade.

 

[Joey D]

It's easy to do map upkeep if you have the sensors needed on the fleet. In general, maps are a prior (like humans driver better where they've driven before), and it let's you see occluded things like traffic signs and let's you see what's ahead (even if you can't see it yet physically) . Someone called it a "time-sensor".

You need a fleet in all areas to maintain. I don't see a fleet of Waymo vehicles manufactured and constantly driving across the US.

Waymo have said over and over again that they don't rely on that the map is true in order to drive. That should be obvious if you see how they navigate in and around roadwork today.

It doesn't matter if "they don't need it to drive." They need it, period. Otherwise they would not need to map and maintain it in the first place.

 

[Joey D]

I had this experience in 2009-2011 when I saw about the same performance from Waymo as FSDb has now...

We'll see what trajectory v12 and beyond takes us on over the coming months.

Waymo does not have "about the same performance" as FSDb now...it has different performance characteristics and profiles.

 

[Joey D]

How much does it cost per mile to create maps? Couldn’t AI also be used to lower that cost?
I wonder if humans drive better in areas where they have a mental map? I feel like I do.

Sure AI can be used to lower cost, but that means you need to deploy everywhere in the country.

Tesla's approach: any car purchased by a consumer in the past 6 years (millions) are already deployed an "recording."

I agree: you drive better where you have a "mental map." (Whether it is a detailed "lidar map" or "learning" from how actual humans have driven on those roads before.

 

[SageBrush]

Even more so than battery day, I expect robotaxi day to be a peek into a possible future 5 - 10 years away.

Which is great, and I appreciate the invitation to chat, but I'm not buying TSLA after the show

 

[QtownTaxiGreg]

Nobody can see the wood for the trees in this whole robot car debate.

As soon as you make cars that can't crash or run over a pedestrian you have ended humans driving or the FSD cannot proliferate.

Pedestrians will turn urban routes into walking malls and pedestrain elevators will be needed to make crossing the through routes on foot illegal.

 

[JulienW]

I wish LIKE hell Elon would take some Apple polish speaking and proof read the presentation at least once instead of showing up 15 minutes late and garbling. Tesla presentations can be so awkward to watch and with all the money and tech the production should be at a higher lever than it is.

 

[Joey D]

I wish LIKE hell Elon would take some Apple polish speaking and proof read the presentation at least once instead of showing up 15 minutes late and garbling. Tesla presentations can be so awkward to watch and with all the money and tech the production should be at a higher lever than it is.

I wish I could crap golden eggs.

But I'll take what Elon's companies deliver plus "awkward" presentations vs. the other way around. In a heartbeat.

 

[JulienW]

I wish I could crap golden eggs.

But I'll take what Elon's companies deliver plus "awkward" presentations vs. the other way around. In a heartbeat.

But they are not mutually exclusive. You can have both and would be nice addition. Just look at Apple.

...but if crapping golden eggs and having a non cringe Tesla presentation are mutually exclusive I'll take crapping golden eggs, provided they aren't too big.

Also Tesla could use a better quality presentation since they are on the "Wall Street" ropes right now and "selling" a L4 robotaxi "show" is going to be a high bar to jump over and would benefit form a well thought out, comprehensive and plausible preliminary plan. Just showing a concept/pre production car and reciting the same old tired "Full Self Driving by the end of the year" line again isn't going to fly.

 

[Joey D]

But they are not mutually exclusive. .....Just look at Apple.

I hear ya! However....

I happen to be the type of person who values "substance" over "polish" if you know what I mean. Give me an "honest" salesman over a "slick" one. Give me a "straight shooter" politician, over one who speaks in platitudes and who says at best "nothing of substance" and at worst "what you want to hear." Same for employees and managers.

Related: I don't own any apple products myself.

 

[RDoc]

What would make sense and be very possible by 8/8 would be replacing the human drivers in the Las Vegas tunnels with robo taxis.

 

[spacecoin]

What would make sense and be very possible by 8/8 would be replacing the human drivers in the Las Vegas tunnels with robo taxis.

I doubt they will be able to by then. Ingress / egress is more complicated than one thinks, but it’s not impossible. Vision only without the front cam might not be safe enough for driverless where people that walk around?

 

[petercc9]

Anybody listen to Farzad..he brings up an interesting possible comparison to Boeing vs the airlines

TLDR
be like Boeing and make the plane to sell to world airlines who put in the custom interiors and let them maintain it.
Remember Tesla says they are a tech company not a service company.

 

[diplomat33]

TLDR
be like Boeing and make the plane to sell to world airlines who put in the custom interiors and let them maintain it.

That's the Mobileye robotaxi strategy. Mobileye decided not to deploy and manage their own robotaxi fleet. Instead, Mobileye is selling the Mobileye Drive hardware and software to companies who will deploy, manage and maintain their own fleets. I think it makes a lot of sense for Tesla to do this because it allows Tesla to make money from their tech without the cost overhead of managing a robotaxi fleet. Of course, Tesla FSD needs to be good enough for robotaxis to do this. Right now, Tesla FSD V12 is not good enough to be a robotaxi yet.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That's the Mobileye robotaxi strategy. Mobileye decided not to deploy and manage their own robotaxi fleet. Instead, Mobileye is selling the Mobileye Drive hardware and software to companies who will deploy, manage and maintain their own fleets. I think it makes a lot of sense for Tesla to do this because it allows Tesla to make money from their tech without the cost overhead of managing a robotaxi fleet. Of course, Tesla FSD needs to be good enough for robotaxis to do this. Right now, Tesla FSD V12 is not good enough to be a robotaxi yet.

That sounds like a liability nightmare. When there's an at fault crash Mobileye could be sued even if they're only partially responsible.

 

[tivoboy]

I wish LIKE hell Elon would take some Apple polish speaking and proof read the presentation at least once instead of showing up 15 minutes late and garbling. Tesla presentations can be so awkward to watch and with all the money and tech the production should be at a higher lever than it is.

Like many ppl of this ilk they think they are so smart, that they can just wing it and do better than ANYONE… and that’s truly not always the case..

SJ, spent sometimes WEEKS working on every last word, where he wanted to be on the stage, timing of the slides, etc.. and it paid off.

Two hours less a day spent on X for 4-5 days before E, might yield some improvement and overall better results.. just spitballin’ here.

 

[diplomat33]

That sounds like a liability nightmare. When there's an at fault crash Mobileye could be sued even if they're only partially responsible.

I don't know if the liability would be any different if Mobileye managed a fleet of robotaxis themselves. I mean, if Mobileye managed their own fleet of robotaxis, they would be directly liable. So either way, Mobileye would face the risk of liability. To address your question, Mobileye works closely with the OEM to do robust testing and validation before any deployment. So Mobileye works with the OEM to ensure the system is safe enough. Mobileye does not just sell the tech and say "good luck".

 

[drtimhill]

Sneak peek at Robotaxi…

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/10/a1/06/10a106743ef5d53171fc295a1e095971.jpg