Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

[brianman]

Yes, must have been different in the old days.

Delays in sprints are very uncommon. The idea is to deliver the features that are ready.

But CNN is a different beast. If there are bad regressions, you need to debug and rebuild.

The key point is whether the feature or product is schedule-driven. Elon made this particular thing schedule driven 3 times now. So far failures is 2 out of 3 on delivering to schedule.

This isn't an aspirational "we're building some hard tech that takes N years" (FSD generally) or even software. He set a schedule of 7 days for qualification and has moved the goal posts twice already. Don't blame the developers. This is completely on Elon (and perhaps an inner circle of lawyers or somesuch).

 

[jebinc]

The key point is whether the feature or product is schedule-driven. Elon made this particular thing schedule driven 3 times now. So far failures is 2 out of 3 on delivering to schedule.

This isn't an aspirational "we're building some hard tech that takes N years" (FSD generally) or even software. He set a schedule of 7 days for qualification and has moved the goal posts twice already. Don't blame the developers. This is completely on Elon (and perhaps an inner circle of lawyers or somesuch).

Definitely not the developers - they are, and have been, working hard. All on Elon, as the leader.

 

[HighZ]

I'm going to go out on a limb and forecast that not everyone with a 100 score will get the beta release

I think Elon would really upset those 100 drivers if that happened. I think that worst case will be he will go back to what he said originally - he will release 1000 each day, but I still don’t think that there will be 2000 100’s if there were only 1000 as of last Wednesday. We may be up to 1500. I think he will get it into the hands of those drivers and then take a pause to make sure that there are no major issues, then continue to release it.

 

[jebinc]

I think Elon would really upset those 100 drivers if that happened. I think that worst case will be he will go back to what he said originally - he will release 1000 each day, but I still don’t think that there will be 2000 100’s if there were only 1000 as of last Wednesday. We may be up to 1500. I think he will get it into the hands of those drivers and then take a pause to make sure that there are no major issues, then continue to release it.

Could be, but I think he already has pissed off 100 drivers.

 

[dckiwi]

I'm going to go out on a limb and forecast that not everyone with a 100 score will get the beta release - because, by the time the release is ready, there will be more owners with 100 scores than Tesla wants to admit into the program in the first wave. So, I suggest another "rules change" (announced beforehand or not) before the software is actually released. There you have it, my unsolicited prediction!

This.

They had a short window where the ‘perfect score’ filter gave them a cohort size they were comfortable adding. That window has likely passed, so they’ll have to add additional criteria.

 

[rxlawdude]

This.

They had a short window where the ‘perfect score’ filter gave them a cohort size they were comfortable adding. That window has likely passed, so they’ll have to add additional criteria.

With those gaming the system for 100 scores, it's pretty meaningless. Plus, driving to game the safety scrore pisses off drivers going around gramma.

 

[dckiwi]

I think Elon would really upset those 100 drivers if that happened.

He has been upsetting FSD owners for years. He does. Not. Care.

 

[goodspellar]

We keep buying his cars, we keep paying for his empty promises, we keep giving them record quarters. Why should he care? Don't be mad at Elon, be mad at us naive idiots

 

[macmee]

The key point is whether the feature or product is schedule-driven. Elon made this particular thing schedule driven 3 times now. So far failures is 2 out of 3 on delivering to schedule.

This isn't an aspirational "we're building some hard tech that takes N years" (FSD generally) or even software. He set a schedule of 7 days for qualification and has moved the goal posts twice already. Don't blame the developers. This is completely on Elon (and perhaps an inner circle of lawyers or somesuch).

They’re building a car that can drive it self. his time estimates for building it are rough. It’s not the end of the world!

 

[dckiwi]

We keep buying his cars, we keep paying for his empty promises, we keep giving them record quarters. Why should he care? Don't be mad at Elon, be mad at us naive idiots

I didn’t say I was mad at Elon. I was just responding to whether he cares about this.

 

[HighZ]

Don't be mad at Elon, be mad at us naive idiots

What is the saying? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me 17 times, I must own a Tesla.

 

[flyhighboi20]

With those gaming the system for 100 scores, it's pretty meaningless. Plus, driving to game the safety scrore pisses off drivers going around gramma.

Exactly, I see post of people talking about having driven 80 some miles in no traffic and using their other car for actual driving use and they have a 100 score. I have approaching 900 miles of real driving, almost entirely on city streets, driving for work, just the days of this month so far I have 192 drives and have a score of 99, but that person with 80 miles driven with no traffic with a 100 score is "safer" than I am. I didn't worry so much about having 99 vs 100 because we were told ~1000 per day roll out so I thought well won't get it day one but maybe day 2 or 3 or whatever. Then that changed again and if something bad happens with one of those "super safe super vetted perfect drivers" then how long until anyone else gets it. Tesla is trying to cover their ass (understandable) to be able to say well we did what we could to make sure only "safe" people got access. But as someone else has pointed out, when something bad happens the media and regulators are going to say "see even the safest of drivers couldn't prevent FSD from crashing"

 

[Phlier]

They’ll also falsely try to lump everyone into only two groups: either agree with them or you’re a fanboy that believes anything Elon says.

I really hate sterotypes, but in this case, if the shoe fits... and it does. It really does. Every anti-Tesla person on this board does exactly this.

And now let's wait for the replies from the guys saying, "Hey, I'm one of those anti-Tesla guys, and I never do this!" mmhmmm (mumbled in the Slingblade voice).

Wish I could do the same, that is, leave the car in the garage now - Unfortunately, I'm 160 miles away from "my garage"

Sure would be fun to have FSD Beta for the drive home...

You don't know who Rainn Wilson is?

I'm old.

Now get off my lawn!

Don't become obsessed with it.

Obsessed? Obsessed?? OBSESSED??? Pfffft. I'd never become obsessed with such things. I prefer the term "intensely interested."

I'm going to go out on a limb and forecast that not everyone with a 100 score will get the beta release - because, by the time the release is ready, there will be more owners with 100 scores than Tesla wants to admit into the program in the first wave. So, I suggest another "rules change" (announced beforehand or not) before the software is actually released. There you have it, my unsolicited prediction!

And just to make sure that one of us is right, I'm gonna take the opposing view.

I think they're ready for public release beta, but the lawyers are strongly suggesting that they have some way of showing that only the safe drivers were added first. Just to CYA. That way they can argue that only people with perfect 100 scores were added, then as the lack of crash information came in, more people were added with lower scores, etc.

So yeah.... I think he'll stick with the "everyone with a 100 score gets it first" plan.

My justification is if you read the Tweets where Elon first announced The Button, he made it sound like it was going to be as easy as pushing The Button and getting the Beta. But then...

The Lawyers have entered The Chat.

He has been upsetting FSD owners for years. He does. Not. Care.

I guess if you're a glass half empty kinda guy, that'd be the opinion to have.

I'm not a glass half full kinda guy. I'm not a glass half empty kinda guy. My wife says I'm a "That DAMN GLASS!" kind of guy. Even so, I don't agree with you. I think he does care, but he bit off way, way, way more than he ever expected when he started down the FSD path, and to this day is still chewing on it.

To me it's a bit of a head scratcher that people come up with the same opinion as you. I mean, the situation is pretty clear: Elon himself has apologized profusely and admitted how wrong he was on the timeline to get to FSD, and has said that it was harder than he ever imagined.

IMO, if he didn't care, he would have just shrugged and gone "oh well" rather than apologizing, etc.

But hey... keep looking at the world in the way that pleases you most.

 

[qdeathstar]

you’re also deluding yourself if you think it’s coming “Sunday or Monday”.

Sir, you have misspoken in the gravest of manners. I demand satisfaction!

 

[Dan D.]

Exactly, I see post of people talking about having driven 80 some miles in no traffic and using their other car for actual driving use and they have a 100 score. I have approaching 900 miles of real driving, almost entirely on city streets, driving for work, just the days of this month so far I have 192 drives and have a score of 99, but that person with 80 miles driven with no traffic with a 100 score is "safer" than I am. I didn't worry so much about having 99 vs 100 because we were told ~1000 per day roll out so I thought well won't get it day one but maybe day 2 or 3 or whatever. Then that changed again and if something bad happens with one of those "super safe super vetted perfect drivers" then how long until anyone else gets it. Tesla is trying to cover their ass (understandable) to be able to say well we did what we could to make sure only "safe" people got access. But as someone else has pointed out, when something bad happens the media and regulators are going to say "see even the safest of drivers couldn't prevent FSD from crashing"

Well the Ford system sucks IMO and to the extent the GM system has been deployed it's underwhelming too.

Tesla could just bite the bullet and release FSD as-is. Yes it's not perfect but neither are the other manufacturers' systems.

Release it, offer a little training seminar at their service centres, and then it's totally up to you to drive safely on it. Like with the other manufacturers' products.

As you pointed out, releasing a public Beta of this risk level might be seen as a worse idea than releasing it fully as a non-beta into the driver's complete responsibility.

 

[jebinc]

Sure would be fun to have FSD Beta for the drive home...

@Phlier Well, not really - I have two passengers that would not even allow me to use NOA coming here. Also, most of the drive is highway, on the old highway only stack, and not the new city stack. So, in a way, I'm okay with the delay, as long as I can get home while maintaining the 100 score.

 

[Phlier]

The whole "The Safety Score system isn't fair!" argument is getting a bit old at this point.

Yeah, the system isn't perfect. Not even close. I hate it, in fact.

But there is no way they could ever come up with a system that made everyone happy. No matter what, some guys are gonna be upset with how the Safety Score determines a driver to be "Safe."

Kinda like programming automatic windshield wipers... no matter how it's done, some people aren't gonna like it.

But it's rapidly approaching the dead horse category.

 

[Phlier]

@Phlier Well, not really - I have two passengers that would not even allow me to use NOA coming here. Also, most of the drive is highway, on the old highway only stack, and not the new city stack. So, in a way, I'm okay with the delay, as long as I can get home while maintaining the 100 score.

I'm wondering if the single stack issue is what's causing the delay, as the previous release (last Saturday) was initially supposed to have single stack, and it got "pushed back a week." So the release we were supposed to get early this morning was supposed to have it.

 

[jebinc]

Happy Beta FSD-less Saturday all! While motivation may be waning, please continue to keep the S/S attached to post #1 current - Once this is all over, we can use that data to determine what really happened, release wise. Well, sort of.....

 

[rxlawdude]

The Lawyers have entered The Chat.

I resemble that remark. But as one who has never spent a day in the courtroom nor having taken a deposition, I'm entertained by the loudmouths who threated lawsuits but (as bullies are wont to do) never follow through on their threats.

I've repeatedly recommended that anyone who truly feels they were fraudulently induced to shell out $3-$10K on FSD sue in Small Claims Court and report their success here. This is the most direct and least cost way (for both the consumer and Tesla) to hold Tesla responsible, and is compliant with the arbitration agreement that 99% of us blew through and accepted on purchase.

So far, crickets.