MASTER THREAD: FSD Subscription Available 16 Jul 2021

[stopcrazypp]

The latest version of FSD is "Autosteer on city streets" which doesn't sound like end-to-end to me. The previous "automatic driving on city streets" version was end-to-end L2. I would argue that it's not really automatic driving if it requires a driver but I suppose the fine print does clarify that it requires supervision.

My point is both terms don't offer hints of L3 or L4, unlike previous descriptions (which have explicit examples laid out that suggest that). To clarify, when I say "end-to-end" I just mean the car can reach from point A to point B (not like right now with NOA it disengages when it reaches local roads).

 

[linux-works]

Ford's promised update haven't come yet. Heck, they haven't even gotten their OTA update system working properly yet (they are still having people bring the cars into dealers to do updates, and supposedly a lot of dealers don't know how to do it without bricking the car). They are just starting to get basic features like phone as a key working properly (it had been broken since launch), so it looks like they have a long road ahead working out the software kinks. All this software stuff is easier said than done.

the OTA process, to download and flash all ecus and manage the whole end to end process, its a lot harder than you might think. (was in a group that did testing on this kind of thing and it was years before it was fully working)

 

[SlimJim]

My autopilot might have caused at least two accidents behind me because it abruptly stops so far behind the car in the front. The car following me panic brakes and the car behind that car either runs into that car or swerves into the shoulder to avoid crashing.

 

[rxlawdude]

My autopilot might have caused at least two accidents behind me because it abruptly stops so far behind the car in the front. The car following me panic brakes and the car behind that car either runs into that car or swerves into the shoulder to avoid crashing.

You should have some great dashcam video to document that, right?

 

[Daniel in SD]

We're all hoping they release FSD Beta to FSD and give all the good stuff like door-to-door, self parking, sign recognition, hand gesture recognition, etc.

I'm not really hoping for that though part of me wants to see what would happen if they do that (morbid curiosity). I'm hoping for L3 highway though obviously they seem to have no interest in that.

 

[Bladerskb]

Tesla lawsuit claiming Autopilot is 'false advertising' allowed to proceed

A lawsuit against Tesla from two Santa Barbara, California, brothers who claim Autopilot is false advertising is being allowed to proceed to its next phase after the automaker’s several attempts to have it dismissed. Judge Thomas Anderle ruled earlier this week that Alexandro Filippini vs...

www.teslarati.com

A lawsuit against Tesla from two Santa Barbara, California, brothers who claim Autopilot is false advertising is being allowed to proceed to its next phase after the automaker’s several attempts to have it dismissed.

Judge Thomas Anderle ruled earlier this week that Alexandro Filippini vs. Tesla, Inc. will be allowed to proceed and could be heard by a jury if an out-of-court settlement is not reached. In February 2020, case 20CV01141 was filed with the Superior Court of California, County of Santa Barbara, where Filippini, along with this brother, Iaian, claimed Tesla employees misrepresented the capabilities of the Model S sedan that they purchased in 2016. The brothers claim that they were told the vehicle was fully autonomous, the Santa Barbara Independent reported.

Judge Anderle is allowing the case to continue based on the fact that the Filippinis have sufficiently stated their allegations of fraudulent behavior, and it sufficiently shows a violation of the Consumer Legal Remedies Act.

Ford's promised update haven't come yet. Heck, they haven't even gotten their OTA update system working properly yet (they are still having people bring the cars into dealers to do updates, and supposedly a lot of dealers don't know how to do it without bricking the car). They are just starting to get basic features like phone as a key working properly (it had been broken since launch), so it looks like they have a long road ahead working out the software kinks. All this software stuff is easier said than done.

EV startups like Xpeng, NIO, etc. Practically all of them have been doing Over the air firmware updates since their very launch, So yes all this software stuff is easy. Just because traditional autos with no background in software, no software structure, no software minded people in leadership are struggling doesn't make it hard. Its quite easy.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Tesla lawsuit claiming Autopilot is 'false advertising' allowed to proceed

A lawsuit against Tesla from two Santa Barbara, California, brothers who claim Autopilot is false advertising is being allowed to proceed to its next phase after the automaker’s several attempts to have it dismissed. Judge Thomas Anderle ruled earlier this week that Alexandro Filippini vs...

www.teslarati.com

EV startups like Xpeng, NIO, etc. Practically all of them have been doing Over the air firmware updates since their very launch, So yes all this software stuff is easy. Just because traditional autos with no background in software, no software structure, no software minded people in leadership are struggling doesn't make it hard. Its quite easy.

Given those companies are in China, where the western media doesn't really browse the forums (nor can most of us here easily know how to read or parse it) we don't know of all the issues that they may have undergone. However, just from a quick search, I found a major problem with XPeng's OTAs:

Not long ago, due to the OTA upgrade implemented by Xiaopeng Motors, a large-scale shutdown occurred in the charging piles of the State Grid. The problem has not been resolved for more than a month. Xiaopeng's response at that time was "the charging cannot be charged due to the upgrade of the internal program of the charging station of the State Grid", but an engineer of the State Grid once said that if there is no problem with other brands of electric vehicles, but the Xiaopeng G3 cannot be charged, it may be an upgrade of the car software. s reason. Although it is not clear who is responsible for this matter, it is the consumers who suffer.

Also problems with the cars:

In addition, Xiaopeng G3 has also been exposed to abnormal steering wheel noise, chassis abnormal noise, shock absorption abnormal noise and other faults, so that some people ridiculed it as a "semi-finished product" under rush to work. Power failure, rainwater leakage, excessive formaldehyde, ABS failure, and the system cannot control the radio. . . . . . These are all questions that users have complained about.

Google Translate
I'm sure it'll be easier to find more if the reporting and the forums are in our native language.

Also, I noticed from the article, the XPeng G3 only sold 15,124 units in 2019 (after launching in December 2018). People gave Ford plenty of grief for the slow rollout of the Mach-E, but in the 6 months of this year they already sold 12,975 units, so they will significantly surpass 15k this year fairly easily.
Ford Mustang Mach E Sales Figures

Nio didn't seem a whole lot better. They launched the ES8 at end of June 2018. Throughout 2018 they were in the headlines of major websites for frequent software problems. Don't know if it was lost in translation, but it also seems their updates can fail (the same problem Ford is having!) Their updates didn't switch to adding new functions until around June of 2019. They didn't even have ACC until 10 months after launch! It would seem a lot of the initial updates is more like the infotainment updates that some automakers count as "OTA" (which many "traditional automakers" have done years ago) but are much simpler to implement than things that might affect the drivetrain and other parts outside the infotainment system. (Note the bold parts below are not my emphasis, it was the article author's)

Compared with 2018, the probability of crashes and black screens during driving is greatly reduced, and the success rate of each software update has also been greatly improved.

I believe all friends who pay attention to Weilai have the feeling that in 2018, Weilai was at the forefront. Because software problems frequently appeared on the headlines of major websites, in 2019, although Weilai Automobile’s sales increased by 2 times, it broke The problem is greatly reduced.
...
But the difference is that when Weilai did not open the NIO Pilot for assisted driving before June, OTA was more used to optimize some existing deficiencies and to add some previously mentioned but not yet implemented functions.

After June, the content of OTA is more to optimize the already good functions to better, and on the basis of the existing functions, to bring some unexpected functions to users.
...
In April 2019, NIO opened ACC adaptive cruise via OTA. This point is clearly criticized. For a feature that was popular a few years ago, it should not be added through OTA 10 months after the vehicle was launched.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/103324454

I don't see any evidence they had an easy time developing/launching their software (even if they set up their cars to support OTAs from the founding of their companies).

 

[Knightshade]

I highly expect that if they only deliver "Autosteer on City Streets" they would claim that satisfies the expectations.

For everyone who bought FSD since March 2019? Yes, it would.

For the folks who bought before then they're still owned a significantly more autonomous feature set.

Some have suggested the drastic change in product description at that time was legal cover to reduce how many folks they had liability to if they were only able to deliver on the far narrower promise.

 

[linux-works]

as you said, there is a LOT going on in OTA update design and implementation. especially when you dont' control all the ecu's (ie, you cant design them, you often buy them and have some software changes you can make via bosch, etc; but you can't change hw that much unless you are willing to take time and money hits).

so from experience, you should assume its a good 2 years from start to finish (at least) to get a full stack of OTA working, end to end, including the back end data centers.

flashing a phone is hard. imagine having over 100 phones and all with diff methods to flash and almost none of them have an undo feature (once flashed it may be impossible to revert and a complex dependancy tree makes life harder, still).

 

[CapeOne]

But that's not quite what is happening.

As long as you want to continue to play games and put non-existent qualifications on Tesla's statement then there's little reason to keep going around in circles on this subject.

 

[Knightshade]

As long as you want to continue to play games and put non-existent qualifications on Tesla's statement then there's little reason to keep going around in circles on this subject.

Pointing out their statement didn't include a service that didn't exist when they made it is hardly "playing games" it's citing legally relevant facts.

If you don't want to keep going in circles I'd suggest you consider why the stuff I'm mentioning, though they seem subtle distinctions, fundamentally matters regarding what, if anything, Teslas "owes" anyone.

If you're instead arguing "I don't care how the law works, they should just give it to everyone free anyway" I agree we haven't got much to discuss further on this.

 

[Az_Rael]

Do you?

Because my recollection of Musk making that promise was he did so on the day they announced AP2- October 19th, 2016.

If he promised that before then, on AP1, I'd love to see a source on it.

(and even then- it wasn't a "promise" so much as he said it was an aspirational goal he felt good about)

Still on their website today: Summon Your Tesla from Your Phone. Emphasis mine. Obviously (in hindsight), Tesla was actually referring to your future Tesla, not your AP1 car that got software 7.1.

Last Fall, Tesla Version 7.0 software introduced a range of new Autopilot active safety and convenience features to give you more confidence behind the wheel, increase your safety on the road, and make highway driving more enjoyable. The release of Tesla Version 7.1 software continues our improvements to self-driving technology. This release expands Autopilot functionality and introduces the first iteration of Summon.

Using Summon, once you arrive home and exit Model S or Model X, you can prompt it to do the rest: open your garage door, enter your garage, park itself, and shut down. In the morning, you wake up, walk out the front door, and summon your car. It will open the garage door and come to greet you. More broadly, Summon also eliminates the burden of having to squeeze in and out of tight parking spots. During this Beta stage of Summon, we would like customers to become familiar with it on private property. Eventually, your Tesla will be able to drive anywhere across the country to meet you, charging itself along the way. It will sync with your calendar to know exactly when to arrive.

The release of Tesla Version 7.1 software is the next step toward developing fully autonomous driving capabilities and delivering them through over-the-air software updates, keeping our customers at the forefront of driving technology in the years ahead.



As far as the whole false advertising goes, I don’t think Tesla can say that their website isn’t advertising even if they say they fired their public relations team and they don’t purchase advertising from other sources. The fact that the “place order” page for my Model 3 said my car would eventually drive itself with no input from me barring regulations is marketing that feature to me, the potential buyer. The 2016 ”self driving” video is a form of marketing. They produced that video to sell FSD cars. It was featured prominently on their website marketing their autopilot for years.

 

[Kingoglow]

I wish there was more useful information in this thread.

I don't understand. What hasn't been covered about the FSD subscription? What is your question?

 

[GlmnAlyAirCar]

I don't understand. What hasn't been covered about the FSD subscription? What is your question?

It's a back-and-forth argument over the semantics of FSD promises, which could continue indefinitely. I scan each message and as soon as I pick up a keyword that amounts to name calling or minutia over what Tesla posted on their site five years ago, I move on. Admittedly, FSD misleading claims are a valid topic of conversation, but just not in this thread.

 

[Knightshade]

Still on their website today: Summon Your Tesla from Your Phone. Emphasis mine. Obviously (in hindsight), Tesla was actually referring to your future Tesla, not your AP1 car that got software 7.1.

Fair enough, thanks for the information.

As far as the whole false advertising goes, I don’t think Tesla can say that their website isn’t advertising even if they say they fired their public relations team and they don’t purchase advertising from other sources. The fact that the “place order” page for my Model 3 said my car would eventually drive itself with no input from me barring regulations is marketing that feature to me, the potential buyer. The 2016 ”self driving” video is a form of marketing. They produced that video to sell FSD cars. It was featured prominently on their website marketing their autopilot for years.

With none of those promises (from official tesla communications) having delivery dates, a false advertising suit would be difficult- especially when the fine print has always conditioned delivery of those features on actual data showing they'd been developed to a certain level of safety not yet achieved.

THAT said there's a couple of places you could, theoretically, have a case today.

For example: People who bought the "new" FSD who were promised city streets "by the end of the year" in 2019. They did not get a specific promised feature that was promised with a specific date (and still haven't in 2021).

Arguably the smart summon feature was also falsely advertised as to capabilities (the anywhere in a parking lot language specifically since the range was and still is very limited and far less than the size of a typical parking lot)

 

[Kingoglow]

It's a back-and-forth argument over the semantics of FSD promises, which could continue indefinitely. I scan each message and as soon as I pick up a keyword that amounts to name calling or minutia over what Tesla posted on their site five years ago, I move on. Admittedly, FSD misleading claims are a valid topic of conversation, but just not in this thread.

I hear that. The reason that they are arguing goes back to the FSD subscription though. Some owners cannot activate the FSD subscription service because they have outdated software.

In my opinion, everything else about the FSD subscription service has been discussed; at least until the price changes in the future. I guess we don't need this thread pinned anymore though.

 

[Fourdoor]

So interesting- you're convinced that buying FSD, for sure, comes with HW upgrades forever?
We're big on "in writing" and "contracts" here. Can you show me where the purchase of FSD guarantees this, no matter what HW is needed in the future?
I can buy FSD in the app with two clicks. It warns me about regulatory approval being needed. It never tells me that HW is guaranteed.

I mean, Tesla could easily call the next version "Actual FSD" and then tell everyone they don't get an upgrade for free, because that's a totally different product than what was advertised earlier, right?

Hell, they might even start being honest and call the current version "SAE level 2 FSD" and the next version that requires HW4 "SAE level 3 FSD" and so on and so on until they actually reach the promised SAE level 5 FSD with HW 10 a decade or more from now.

Keith

 

[Gor-Gor]

Hell, they might even start being honest and call the current version "SAE level 2 FSD" and the next version that requires HW4 "SAE level 3 FSD" and so on and so on until they actually reach the promised SAE level 5 FSD with HW 10 a decade or more from now.

Keith

That would be more helpful than the current nomenclatures. People shouldn't have to do research on the differences between AP, EAP and FSD since even the manual is kind of unclear.

 

[Knightshade]

Hell, they might even start being honest and call the current version "SAE level 2 FSD"

I mean it literally tells you during the purchase the current features are not autonomous and require supervision-- which is L2.

until they actually reach the promised SAE level 5 FSD

To my knowledge no official communication, nor anything shown during the sales process, ever promised SAE Level 5.

Even the most full featured promises (pre 3/19) would most fairly be read as L4. ("almost all circumstances")

 

[Fourdoor]

Again you are misunderstanding the legal principle at work.

You have to be able to show some sort of loss or damages.

"I can't use a feature I don't even own" is not the basis for a lawsuit. You can't show any actual harm you have suffered at that point.

And if you DO own it, you CAN use it- because they insure the hardware gets any needed upgrades for free.





No.

Tesla is charging if you have an older car and want to be eligible for the subscription service... a service they never said you'd qualify for when you bought the car, since the service did not exist.

If you want FSD WITHOUT paying for a HW upgrade you can still BUY FSD and NOT be charged for hardware. Just like always.

I kinda feel like this exact basic idea has been explained roughly 874,000 times already though.

It hasn't changed.

You keep saying the same thing over and over... and not making a real point.

If he went to court and the judge asked what the damage is, all he has to say is they refused to sell him a subscription to FSD. That is the damage. He isn't CHOSING to not purchase a FSD subscription, he is being denied the opportunity to purchase the FSD subscription until he pays for the hardware he was told was already in the car when he purchased the car. You can repeat the same thing until you are blue in the face but it doesn't make it true. Will most people have the fortitude to actually take this to small claims court? No. Will anyone who does take it to small claims court have a good chance of being compensated (not guaranteed mind you, I said "have a good chance") Yes.

Most important of all. What is your skin in this game? Why are you so adamant on cluttering up this thread with irrelevant drivel?

I have zero skin in the HW 2.5 vs HW 3 game and couldn't give two shits... I am only replying because I am sick of seeing your posts on the subject but find your other comments to be readable and sometimes entertaining. On general principle I avoid blocking people, and I do not want to have to block you to avoid this crap.

Keith