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Reciprocity
Active Member
Yes, as long as the 200,001 in the US is delivered anytime after Jan 1st and before Mar. 31st, then full credits goes through June 30th.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Looks like I'm still staring down ~6 week difference between 75D and P75D here on the East Coast, and both within the full tax credit window.
Gee, wonder which I'll be doing....
Gee, wonder which I'll be doing....
Hey @FlatSix911. That's a nice little detail. Wouldn't it be interesting if the actual delivery date turns out to be very close to the estimate too? Thanks for adding the screenshot. After the delivery, we can look back and check what happened.
@tpatana, yes it works exactly like that. If somebody else wants a simple explanation of federal tax credits, I wrote about it here a while ago. The optimistic scenario is now slightly more likely.
@tpatana, yes it works exactly like that. If somebody else wants a simple explanation of federal tax credits, I wrote about it here a while ago. The optimistic scenario is now slightly more likely.
24,000 each. You can see these in column AJ, just below the green 22,100 number here.
Yes, it does. The spreadsheet automatically displays the daily USA sales count. You can see this in column BA in the dark grey box here. For example, today it says, "Teslas sold in the USA as of 8 Jul 2017: 128,212 units". Tomorrow, it will show tomorrow's number. Each time there is new data, I add that to the sheet to fine-tune the calculations.
Unfortunately no. Showroom or test ride cars are not included in calculations. However, I did go a little extreme when calculating Roadster numbers. According to the rules, EVs sold in the USA after January 1, 2010 count towards the 200K. Some Roadsters were sold before that and not all Roadsters were sold in the USA. I have done some research on VIN numbers and checked a few old topics. I calculated that 590 Roadsters would count towards the 200K.
My guess is, you will only get priority for one of the reservations. Check out this article that talks about Tesla removing duplicates. However, I think owners who reserve a Model 3 now for the first time will still get priority based on what Tesla said here. I think Tesla will just look at the myTesla page data to decide whether a reservation holder is an existing owner.
Reciprocity
Active Member
You are like a damn encyclopedia of Tesla info. Had never heard that full earnings call or forgot about some interesting tidbits in there. One interesting one was that they have a very specific percent for previous owners who had reservations that I had never heard before. 7%. Which seems very low to me because when I bought my X, the sales guy said a large portion of reservations where existing owners. Which made no sense to me unless many were trading down. How many cars does a person need. I guess 2 for most couples and maybe 3 for some families with driving aged children. But 7% seems more realistic.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The estimates are getting better. One thing that makes it look more realistically for me is that only 1500 or so employee RWD reservations need to be filled before Tesla owner ones in CA i.e. Tesla owner production starts in Oct as the ramp up picks up pace.
One other thing to consider to make this more realistic. We should expect some time offs for the assembly line. Perhaps one week off in December, a few days in Oct/Nov. One more week in Jan. This apart from unscheduled stoppage that may (will ?) happen.
One other thing to consider to make this more realistic. We should expect some time offs for the assembly line. Perhaps one week off in December, a few days in Oct/Nov. One more week in Jan. This apart from unscheduled stoppage that may (will ?) happen.
Kira
Member
I probably missed where this may have been explained, but after the recent tweaks a 55D or a 75D looks like they'd be delivered on August 22, 2018 versus a 55 or a 75 being delivered on October 1, 2018. I'm certainly not complaining (other than to my husband for taking until April 1st to convince re: the reservation in the first place, ha) but just wondering if the AWD could somehow end up coming earlier for us Canucks who weren't first-day reservations...?
Right, I'm quite confident it'll be full refund until June 30th. Still not changing to 75D, I want my car earlier.
@Kira, there was a problem with Canada. It should be fixed now.
Hi, @smak.
33,341 is only RWD. If you look at cell J3 here it shows 101,033 reservations from CA. That's 101,033/444,338= 22.7% of global reservations. Is this a realistic number? It's easy to check because California Tesla sales are published by CNCDA.org and Tesla's global sales are published by Tesla. Looking at this data you can see what percentage of Tesla's global sales are in California. Here are some quarterly numbers. You can click on the links for the data source.
Quarter, California, Global, CA/Global
Q1 2016 2,937 14,810 19.83%
Q2 2016 4,967 14,402 34.49%
Q3 2016 5,298 24,821 21.34%
Q4 2016 4,412 22,252 19.83%
Q1 2017 4,749 25,418 18.68%
Hi, @smak.
I checked a few examples and can't see a problem. Can you give an example?
Yes, I expect it to work like that. Owner priority is effective only after production starts for that region. For example, RWD production for the Eastern States doesn't start until Dec 1st 2017. By that time many non-owners elsewhere will already have their car. There aren't that many owners among reservation holders. It's only 7%. Therefore all CA owner reservations will be fulfilled quickly and then they will continue with non-owners in CA before production starts in all USA regions.
33,341 is only RWD. If you look at cell J3 here it shows 101,033 reservations from CA. That's 101,033/444,338= 22.7% of global reservations. Is this a realistic number? It's easy to check because California Tesla sales are published by CNCDA.org and Tesla's global sales are published by Tesla. Looking at this data you can see what percentage of Tesla's global sales are in California. Here are some quarterly numbers. You can click on the links for the data source.
Quarter, California, Global, CA/Global
Q1 2016 2,937 14,810 19.83%
Q2 2016 4,967 14,402 34.49%
Q3 2016 5,298 24,821 21.34%
Q4 2016 4,412 22,252 19.83%
Q1 2017 4,749 25,418 18.68%
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Foxhound199
Member
I mean, it's still a guess at this point, but this is how I interpreted the order. Within each batch, owners get priority. But they're batching regionally, so first CA owners who want this configuration, followed immediately by non-owners. As each region starts getting deliveries, they will start with owners and move on to non-owners. But they won't stop delivering to CA because there's a region with Tesla owners that haven't gotten their cars yet.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Kira
Member
Perfect, thanks for responding so quickly! Now it's just a 1 day difference (Aug 22 versus Aug 23 for AWD) - still over a year to wait, but at least the production has started according to Elon's tweet just now.
Foxhound199
Member
Oh no, they're already a day late! Everyone, add a day to your estimate.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Oh no, they're already a day late! Everyone, add a day to your estimate.
I expect some scathing Seeking Alpha articles tomorrow.....
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The assumption seems to be - once a particular region starts (like PNW) cars will be made for the region only for a couple of days. Then CA production restarts. So, this leads to a strange co-incidence. For those in Seattle who booked before 14:00 the delivery is 11 Nov (or before). For anyone who booked at 14:01 it is Dec 23.
I'd guess once a region starts, they would just manufacture cars as they are configured mixing them with CA production - delivering a steady stream of cars. Otherwise Seattle/Portland delivery folks will be jobless for 40 days in the above example.
I'd guess once a region starts, they would just manufacture cars as they are configured mixing them with CA production - delivering a steady stream of cars. Otherwise Seattle/Portland delivery folks will be jobless for 40 days in the above example.
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