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I'm admittedly pulling this out of my butt, but I'm 90% certain that the change won't be to offer AWD. The change will be non-owners or SR. The reason I say this is based on my own estimate from Tesla. First run is by Feb, SR is early 2018, and AWD is Aug - Oct. So I don't see how AWD could be next up. The AWD diagram muddies the water a bit but there's really no reason for an SR battery diagram to exist.
suwaneedad
Member
Troy, here's a bit of new info (albeit anecdotal) in the event it's useful to you at all...
I stopped by the Decatur (Atlanta) store today and was SHOCKED to lay eyes on FOURTEEN Model 3s, all safely kept indoors.
I then chatted up one of the employees about how things are going, and why the hell he's sitting on FOURTEEN undelivered Model 3s.
He said "and we have another 30 in the back."
"Fremont sets the delivery appointments; we've only delivered six to customers."
As you can imagine, I had to check to be certain my jaw was not actually on the floor.
He even had one on the floor in precisely my config (Aeros, midnight silver, EAP).
They're kept indoors or in the back for two reasons: overnight recently someone had removed an Aero cap. And, they've already had people trying to figure out the door handles on cars that soon will belong to people! In the showroom, they're better able to manage the people traffic against these risks.
To think that Elon has all this metal ready and waiting to be converted into cash, was stunning to me.
The Decatur employee said he's seen the list of names to which each of these cars belongs, and they're nearly all familiar to him...loyal local customers.
That's roughly $2.4 million that could be in Tesla's bank account today, but is instead waiting for Fremont to get delivery appointments on the books here in Atlanta. The Decatur location is (according to the employee) the sole location for Atlanta-area Model 3 deliveries.
To say this visit drove me insane would be just barely an understatement. If I were the CFO of Tesla I'd be apoplectic.
Second point: I suspect non-owner LR configurations will precede SR configurations for owners, if for no other reason than the former keeps the manufacturing ramp on its current level of difficulty AND LR vehicles are higher margin than SR (I think that's a safe assumption). Not to say all LR's will be made prior to the first SR, since that's clearly not the case, but I'd expect not to see SRs in the mix until Tesla has nearly exhausted the order book at least in CA for the LR.
@suwaneedad,
I read Atlanta as Alcantara and I thought Decatur must be the name of a massive automotive decoration retrofit store. It confused me for a while. I guess I have read too much about Alcantara. What you have told is similar to what Trev mentioned recently in a video. He said Tesla is moving towards pre-built inventory instead of building to order.
@S3XY, I was trying to cover all bases by including AWD. I wrote the same thing in the predictions thread here. I didn't want this to count as a failed prediction just in case they surprise everybody with AWD. Of course, SR and non-owners are more likely.
I read Atlanta as Alcantara and I thought Decatur must be the name of a massive automotive decoration retrofit store. It confused me for a while. I guess I have read too much about Alcantara. What you have told is similar to what Trev mentioned recently in a video. He said Tesla is moving towards pre-built inventory instead of building to order.
@S3XY, I was trying to cover all bases by including AWD. I wrote the same thing in the predictions thread here. I didn't want this to count as a failed prediction just in case they surprise everybody with AWD. Of course, SR and non-owners are more likely.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
This makes sense to produce higher margin vehicles... 
Tesla registers VINS for fleet of Model 3 vehicles with dual motor – hinting at imminent launch
Tesla registers VINS for fleet of Model 3 vehicles with dual motor – hinting at imminent launch
suwaneedad
Member
If that's the build priority (as opposed to SR following LR), it's financially best for Tesla (more margin per unit, to your point) but will end up screwing more SR reservationists out of the full $7500 US credit. Is what it is I suppose.This makes sense to produce higher margin vehicles...
Tesla registers VINS for fleet of Model 3 vehicles with dual motor – hinting at imminent launch
suwaneedad
Member
@Troy sorry about that! I was thinking that the existence of 44 cars in Atlanta in inventory (6 delivered) may also be helpful in terms of confirming your sample rate assumptions in the configure/delivery spreadsheet. I think that shows roughly a dozen known orders to date in Georgia. But in this store we have confirmation of 50 orders for which the vehicles are already on site (and w/r/t 44 of them, just not converted to cash yet).
As for Trev's video, sure the batch manufacturing makes a ton of sense to all of us. But what I saw yesterday is different: a massive, inexplicable bottleneck at the final step of converting raw materials into a product and then back into cash! The cars observed in the store were of varying colors and wheels, and the employee confirmed that they are all spoken for. Yet, they just sit...consuming Tesla's precious cash, and without the local ability for SAs to call the customers and get them in the store to get their car and part with their cash. Bizarre, and a threat to customer sat (frustrated customers..."you mean that's my car right there but I can't have it?" as well as damage risk from it sitting on the lot any longer than absolutely necessary...the indoor vehicles are parked six inches apart to fit them all in there. It's crazy.)
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What you don't know is the status for each one. Maybe the owner isn't available to take delivery right now. Maybe they are still working on getting their financing all set. etc. And if corporate is handling all of that the local SC wouldn't have/need to know that information.
@suwaneedad, do they have one on the showroom floor that you can see in person? Would love to swing by and check it out!
suwaneedad
Member
Uh, yeah. There are 14 on the showroom floor (and 30 in the back). But you can't sit in them because they're each tagged to a customer. They're also parked about six inches apart in an effort to keep them all indoors. It is at least a good way to go see paint colors in person (the 14 contained all colors other than silver), along with wheel/color combinations. The car, quite simply, is gorgeous. I also forgot to mention that I checked several for body panel fit/finish and noted that most hoods are misaligned by maybe a millimeter, but was noticeable only when looking for it. This is a big improvement over the panel fits I observed in Fremont in mid-August.
suwaneedad
Member
You're being really generous to Tesla on this point. If only 6 out of 50 buyers are actually ready to take delivery when the vehicles show up, Tesla has a massive problem on its hands, just at the point where the base runner is sliding into home plate.
Oh, I'm not saying that all of the issues are on the buyers side, but I'm sure a portion of them are. I suspect that the biggest part of the problem is that their infrastructure isn't/wasn't fully ready for the ~100% increase in US deliveries. (~50k S&X per year is ~1k/week, now they have another ~1k/week of Model 3s to deal with.)
Hopefully they get everything streamlined and properly staffed to handle the further increases to delivery volume that we hope are coming.
Another theory, based on nothing but speculation:
Maybe the cars need something before they can be delivered?
Maybe Tesla doesn't have room to store all Model 3s they are building in Fremont, so they ship some out, missing some minor part which isn't currently available, and then get the local delivery centers to retrofit them once they get what they need?
Hypothetically, imagine they ran out of charging cables. They wouldn't want to deliver cars without them, so could hold onto the cars until they got more cables.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Good point.. Important people understand what simple math. Even at a paltry 1000/w model 3s, it's basically doubling US deliveries over 30 days. It's astounding how we don't give Tesla credit for that. Tesla only produced 1000 S per week on average last year. In 7 months they have added an equivalent number of cars produced as the model S. Model S has been produced for 5 years? Incredible. Be patient young Padawans.
Stop listening to what Elon says and forces instead on what Tesla accomplishes. Elon is aspirational. But Tesla does delivery results that are in my mind still amazing.
Good new is going by that guesstimate I'm getting ~4k closer to the front of the line per month just on cancellations
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